Looks like the control takes a similar evolution.

Stupidly high anomalies and a likely all time December CET is very noteworthy I agree, but it takes more than that to tickle my stone cold heart 😉

The likely tale as we head into January is one which the MetO have once again got spot on - mild and unsettled. I saw several people in my village cutting their grass yesterday in t-shirts. One ground frost would ordinarily halt grass growth for the year. That in essence is how extraordinary the weather is.

Now that the chart needed during the summer and with those current record temps we having now I would be looking at 23-25C minimums and 35-38C in the south and 34-36C in the midlands to 28-32C in the north with also high minimums. Went up to 15C at midnight here which is 11C above average so if was in summer 25C at midnight is likely to happen.  I heard 28C was the highest midnight temps being recorded on 4th August 1990.

At least come to Jan only 2 more months before March become more usable weather but I feel it going to be like March 1995 followed by good summer.

Around here there was a rush to put decorations up yesterday. It seemed like some people had probably seen the calendar and remembered that Christmas is few days away.  

As for early Jan it looks quite unsettled based on the GEFS. Despite what some people say on the forums, I seriously doubt whether MOGREPS and the European ensembles show a significantly different picture to GEFS except on very rare occasions.

It is remarkable.

Lawn grass requires a sustained soil temperature around the roots of 6C to trigger growth; that means that growth will slow or halt if the temperature falls below that, but will initiate again, provided that conditions are right, if the temperature rises again for some time.

We've had three ground frosts here this season, one in December (9th) and two with air frost at the end of November. Since the tenth, the temperature has not fallen below 6C at night (amazing) and the mean low for the 10-day period is above 9. It has no precedent in my 16 years worth of local records.

 As a result, the grass is not only growing again (I mowed last week) but flowering.  

Looking at the forecast synoptics, we could get another week of uninterrupted growth at least.

Hi Jiries nice to see you  think it was

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes

Hard to sleep

Happy xmas to you and your family

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

This mornings ECM at 216h summarizes the synoptic balance.Post xmas plenty of anticyclonic ENS  on GEFSa round but generally HP in the wrong place.ECM slowy builds HP over Scandi but it is rapidly pushes away SE by the strong zonal flow to the north west.

I very much hope you will be proved right there Jiries, especially wrt your thoughts for next summer!

I would say our usable weather is now, grab it while you can, waiting for March and April could be foolish

Abandon hope all ye who enter here!

Nothing of interest on the horizon for coldies.

No, but I have decided to embrace the freakish weather. My daffs are coming up and I want to see if they flower before January. I'm still planning to have my Christmas Day "Global warming celebration" BBQ. The only issue might be that the garden centre might not have any charcoal!

Hang about... what about that intensifying high over E Europe at T+231 GFS 6?

Unless you live in Shetland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.gif

I would expect a few rather cold options in the north on the ensemble data at this time point.

Try the local Shell Garage?? I got some for my annual Christmas Eve BBQ in a Hampshire Shell Garage.

Cutting the grass in preparation myself and yes not only still growing rapidly, but the garden is still dry!...and bizarre to see so many (and not all postmen) shopping in shorts!!

It always feels sad when the shortest day is behind us in this part of the world, because lasting cold, frost and snow always seem to come harder to find as each day after the 22nd passes

Have a barbe when you like I do in fact its much better fun with snow on the ground that way you dont have to bother with the grass

Mods are we done?

Indeed.

This thread plummets to new lows.

The strength of the jet and its continued capacity to send strong pulses into mid-Atlantic is the problem. Each time this happens we see a trough to our west, spawning strong low pressure areas , promoting a build of pressure to our east and maintaining wind flows from the S or SW.

Until the jet slackens for a significant time or the Eurobloc gets destroyed we are not likely to get much cold from either favoured direction.

This mornings output appears to show little hope of significant cold for many away from favoured spots for the next fortnight.

The GFS and UKMO are quite different at +144hrs, the UKMO being flatter and a lot more progressive with the Atlantic. My hunch is to back the UKMO

UKMO +144hrs

GFS

This set up will ensure the CET record gets absolutely obliterated. 

GFS almost getting interesting.  "Just" need pressure to fall to the south...

GFS Op has been on the Christmas brandy - stonking setup at T+238; starting all the way back in Low Res.

Unless the ECM follows suit I too would support the more progressive UKMO with a stronger Atlantic as that appears to support the longer-term signals mooted by the pros the Meto and elsewhere. We've been surprised before though and Scandi highs can crop up (and disappear) at short notice so worth an eyebrow.

GFS has -10C uppers over Shetland on Boxing Day.