Indeed Phil. The further north that warm air can advect the greater the chances of a dramatic switch to new year cold. 

Id be happy Steve if it got to the pole and perhaps we had cross polar flow.  The most encouraging potential-for-cold-down-the-line-run for an eon

A very good effort from the 12z GFS. I suspect this is as near to cold potential we will get on this run. Its an improvement though. 

One of those runs where the orientation of the high is just wrong even though its in the right place.  Great to see pressure falling over Berne (SWZ take note if youre out there!).  Maybe there is life after December daffodils?

edit - most impressive FI incursion of warm upper air: -4 uppers reaching the pole.

Perhaps..just perhaps the extreme warmth being advected as far north of as 77N will be the tipping point to get us out of this incredible spell of weather. There is only so much nature can take. 

GFS been on the Christmas sherry I think, crazy chart. Very long odds on the reality remotely resembling this I'd say.

Very happy to post this outrageously good chart by recent standards in the outer most limits of Fantasy Island:

On this run we get the wall of high pressure and air of tropical origin making it to the pole (albeit modified).

What goes up must come down and IF we can get this WAA shooting north to the pole around 30th Dec then there is a fighting chance of a good set up come twelfth night. All very far out and enjoy it while it lasts but brilliant to have something to marvel at.

I love the idea of this bumptious invading warmth inadvertently sowing the seeds of its own destruction. 

But we need to give it some thought gm opp and ecm hints for a while the jet also on gfs and gm looking better rather than the ride over the top

gm latest

This kind of run has been lurking in the ensembles recently, and it wouldn't show up as a "cold" run in terms of 850s at first glance. Maybe not the form horse, but I wouldn't discount it into the very long odds stable either.

Brilliant; synoptic Sci-Fi, the misery-making beast devouring tself.

The nice thing about the last chart is that the seeds for this are sown fairly early on in the run - the whole thing was screaming 'HP block about to set up shop'. Not a radical departure from some of the ens members of late although (subject to the 12z ens) still in the minority. 

Half an eyebrow raised though, be nice to see a few more runs going with this kind of evolution. Of course the trend for the past 4-5 weeks is for the pattern to flatten noticeably nearer the time and HP just to linger over Europe instead

Really?  Perhaps a chart or two would help us understand why...

I think this is a step in the right direction as the low has potential to disrupt and an easterly is not out of the question:

Yes Hippy, this is the best run in eons and I'm right there with you.  We just  need the Arctic high to phase with a northward ridging Euro High.

If we are really lucky the warmth will destroy itself.  What this run displayed was pretty much a best case scenario.  Its Christmas.  One can dream

You've quoted a post from yesterday!

As Arcus says, this scenario has popped up repeatedly in the ensembles (both ECM and GEFS) over the past few days, so it was likely that sooner or later we'd see it in an operational run.

And as is usual in these situations, it all hinges on the jet over the Atlantic. If it splits in the right way and forces a chunk of the trough to become cut-off, sending warm air due north as a side-effect, then we're poised for a cold spell. If it doesn't split in the right way the jet then heads NE'wards, the warm air goes up NE'wards too and the Scandinavian heights drift harmlessly away to the SE.

Expect a few swings and roundabouts ahead, as the genesis of it all is still at that slightly-too-far-to-be-certain range...

Good grief the force returns

Can we get ecm to get that energy underneath tonight its liked it slightly more for 3 or 4 days continues to move in the more seasonal direction

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Here cometh the beast
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1

You cant rule out an attack from the n/w either

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=252&mode=0&carte=1

Nah.

I can sell a change is on the way for the period of 27th December onwards Mild and wet with rain on 26th, following a mild day Central and SE UK Friday, dry mild SSW or WSW winds, maybe Scotland still cold on Friday 25th.

A major two week change should start by Sunday 27th and that may last to at least the 7th January, as West mid N Atlantic PV Low, SE Tracking Low's from E SE Canada NE USA bring SW and South Greenland very cold SW or WSW cyclonic PV Low system.

And the GFS and UKMO show Mild SW flow affecting S SE side, and Central W SW Europe Blocking high, plus we see NW Atlantic and W C and SW S Greenland PV Low and W to Mid N Atlantic Low merge from the Sunday and Monday/ Tuesday 27-29 Dec. the GFS 12z run showing today, South Arctic Iceland and N NE UK High Pressure, NE Atlanitc to our NNW has high P tending to build, and the GFS wants to spring the Mid W N Atlantic Low well out west off UK in MidN Atlantic Area, and sends cold Arctic Low across far NE Europe and builds a SW Central Europe moved to N Europe NE side major Cold high with mild air to its SW and South, and GFS shows mild West SW winds approach far WestSW UK, by about 29 Dec, though to about 2nd Jan 2016.

Seeing that Deep Cold pool over Svalbard and Seas of NNW Europe Norway Seas, South Arctic, with some Arctic High NE off Greenland Very cold NE winds on Friday and Saturday having affected Iceland by Cold Cyclonic flow has very cold and snowy weather a strong influence that should let this affect NE Europe, so by GFS 12z standards of today's guess, makes a cold Blocking North and NE Europe high a good POSSIBILITY with mild south winds trying to come to affect the UK by 29 and 30th December, which may break down and UK could start to get A NE flow from a Scandy N NE Europe Cold block high, during period as above explained and possibly lasting to 31 Dec and Friday 1st Jan 2016, GFS has that today!!.😄😇👓😳😏.

My bad as the kids say... Hadn't refreshed from yesterday for some reason! Sorry all.

Lets hope so Michael

Anybody know why the japs stall for so long?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=84&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0