Its all to do with the behaviour of that shortwave low that spins out of the USA from 23rd December. Last night's runs saw it remain detached from the PV but then spin northward to the east of the Greenland serving to dish up some very favourable South to North Warm air advection directly to the nearly 80N to Spitzbergen. 

The 6z appears to take the shortwave low directly across Scandianvia. As a result we don't get the WAA where we need it and height rises over Northern Scandinavia are delayed. At the same time the PV strenthens to our NW..probably used to describe the monstrous blues by Shropshire and the SW-NE flow is maintained and we keep the incredibly mild theme going.

Nevertheless its a fascinating situation. The chances for a significant easterly spell are still there. Despite the chance being very small. 

I think January will see a return to "normal" winter conditions. More westerlies and PM incursions so it will feel cooler than it does now. No sign of any cold weather for a long time to come however

A quick check of the GFS ensembles at 240 hours (News Years Eve) shows high pressure dominant to our ENE over Eastern Europe declining SE Wards allowing a mobile westerly or SW'ly flow to cover the UK and eventually Scandinavia. If anything the pattern appears to flatten out as we move into the New Year, the PV appears to lock in to the north with mildness and mobility maintained and occasional cooler westerly flows at times presenting a risk of wintry to the north, particularly high ground. 

Gusty, that is a very, very depressing observation, yet you end it with a smiley.

What you write is the diametrical opposite of what most of us would prefer.

Duly edited MM as well as an offering of something slightly more seasonal for northern hills at times. 

This is the problem Solar Cycles. Atmospherically it is normally a very stable pattern once it establishes. The cold gets locked in to the north, the jet fires up and the status quo is maintained. All in is not lost, there is still a small chance around new year.

Blimey,

The GFS and the ECMWF, have Cold Pool and PV Low Pressure getting very mighty over Artcic outside NW and North away from UK and Europe, and also Big Family PV Low's NW and North Atlantic for Next Week after this Weekend, a mix of both mild and chilly transitions and chances of heavy rains as well on the Models.

Now we need the High to our East and NE - off us put it E Central NE Europe and SE Arctic and very Cold Low Pressure around Greenland and through it and maybe Send us some Colder NW flow after Next Week, or by New Year ahem and the few days after that.

😄😆💨🌧.

I think there is a bit of a high trying to develop to the east.

In that case the balance of the other ECM perturbations would help decide which way the average charts bias led. Not an exact Science I concede and there are certain situations usually in colder patterns when this chart does indeed have less clarity and speculation but in this pattern it is nearly always on the money. The one thing I would also make in it's defence while other operational (including it's own) and other member runs have constantly thrown up some colder scenarios off and on over the last month the average chart has always not supported this and when we look back on the last month of weather across the UK it has been every bit right not to have deviated from the pattern it is currently showing as it is exactly what we've had. The only difference shown day to day has been a greater and lesser influence from the High pressure belt to the SE so until the 10 day chart shows definitive signs of change I'm afraid I can quite confidently say that any cold weather is at least 10 or more days away from the UK. 

Exactly

I find the ENS means and anomalies very useful for seeing which way the winds are blowing in the NWP, rather than taking them literally.

A general trend to lower pressure unsettled Atlantic weather affecting us in the models today with any potential easterly now looking an extreme long shot.

Looks like a lot more rain to come so more flooding issues unfortunately. 

It seems we're on course to lose the shortwave battle days 5-7 which is a shame. If so, the next question is to what extent high heights can hold on somewhere over western Eurasia and how far poleward - the more so, the better for interfering with the vortex.

I've long been of the mindset that breaking away from a generally zonal pattern will take until at least mid-Jan and to be honest this now looks to be at the optimistic end of the scale. Before then it looks like polar maritime air from the northwest may be the only real candidate for bringing the temps down significantly - and I wouldn't be surprised to see that idea scuppered by LP development to the SW nearer the time.

So... not much to get excited about at the moment aside from the pretty much inevitable December temp records for E&W (inc. CET).

Worth pointing out, though, that ECM's 00z op produced for day 8 what may be the most intense non-tropical low I've ever seen in terms of the pressure gradient and compact nature of the storm:

At the 850 hpa level for that time it shows sustained wind speeds of around 130 mph so near the surface it could be more than 70 mph on the SE side with gusts to over 100.

It seems unlikely that the extreme temp. gradient (+5*C to -5*C in the space of barely 100 miles at the 850 hpa level) will manage to be exploited to that extent - but not impossible! Of course even if it is the low has a good chance of staying west of the UK - but I imagine the Irish will be watching the potential closely.