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Fothergill
20 December 2015 22:03:41

It's the ECM and UKMO vs the GFS. The UKMO would be similar to ECM if it went further but even more progressive. The ECM op is similar to the ENS mean at +192 so seems well supported, but there could be a surprise still.

moomin75
20 December 2015 22:18:56


 


Kieren, while I do accept there is every chance now of your prediction regarding a record mild December coming to pass, even you must accept that when you first made this prediction (in the early days of the month IIRC), there was still enough by way of variation in the model output generally to suggest that your prediction may not necessarily have come to pass. If you recall, some GFS op runs in FI a couple of weeks ago were suggesting that the second half December could have been rather colder than the first half. That was why I, and some other people, were finding your apparent very high confidence in a record mild December hard to understand at that time.


As I said, there is now a good chance you will be proved right, but it is one thing to merely suggest a record breaking month and quite another to go on about it as if it's a dead cert to happen from a way off. You have got lucky this month, big time.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

But the thing is David I wasn't basing my prediction on the basis of one or two runs. In fact I was looking specifically at certain runs at certain times of the day....the 12zs of each model and that is where I saw a clear trend. It's not dissimilar to what Gav has been doing with his excellent Christmas updates.


I actually started calling it before the start of December although was not as bullish at first until I started seeing a clear trend.


Yes I accept I got lucky as I have just conceded, but my prediction was not based on one run in isolation and actually the majority though not ALL 12zs were trending the same way.


Thats why I made a call. It was kind of experimental to see if what Gav has been trying has any chance of success. I confess it was the first time I've specifically focused on one particular model run (ie the 12zs) and it was an interesting experiment as it appears to have allowed me to make a fairly accurate call.


Almost certainly pure luck but I am doing the same for January to see how the models fluctuate and how consistent a certain set are.


All that said, I'm not going to be here soon so may not be able to continue the experiment until I return.


😀

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
20 December 2015 22:30:00


But the thing is David I wasn't basing my prediction on the basis of one or two runs. In fact I was looking specifically at certain runs at certain times of the day....the 12zs of each model and that is where I saw a clear trend. It's not dissimilar to what Gav has been doing with his excellent Christmas updates.


I actually started calling it before the start of December although was not as bullish at first until I started seeing a clear trend.


Yes I accept I got lucky as I have just conceded, but my prediction was not based on one run in isolation and actually the majority though not ALL 12zs were trending the same way.


Thats why I made a call. It was kind of experimental to see if what Gav has been trying has any chance of success. I confess it was the first time I've specifically focused on one particular model run (ie the 12zs) and it was an interesting experiment as it appears to have allowed me to make a fairly accurate call.


Almost certainly pure luck but I am doing the same for January to see how the models fluctuate and how consistent a certain set are.


All that said, I'm not going to be here soon so may not be able to continue the experiment until I return.


😀


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Each to their own I guess.


I don't know what Gavin's own thoughts were on December before it got started as for my sins I don't often follow his videos, but not everyone here was as convinced as you were about how December would turn out early on in the month, hence the discussions we had in the previous model threads. Focusing only on the 12z runs is all fine and good, but surely all the other runs at earlier and later times of the day need to be taken into account as well.


I know that Martin (aka Gibby) used to base his model summaries here on the 00z runs each morning, although he hasn't posted any in here for a while now. I'm not sure, but I have a vague recollection of him saying that in his view the 00z runs tended to be more reliable than those later in the day, so again it's each to their own.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
20 December 2015 22:33:09


Horrific ECM, January could be even milder if that comes off.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Can you please try and be a little more informative with your posts


How do you come to the conclusion you have considering the ECM output ( we see ) hasn't even reached December 31st?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
20 December 2015 22:39:17


 


Kieren, while I do accept there is every chance now of your prediction regarding a record mild December coming to pass, even you must accept that when you first made this prediction (in the early days of the month IIRC), there was still enough by way of variation in the model output generally to suggest that your prediction may not necessarily have come to pass. If you recall, some GFS op runs in FI a couple of weeks ago were suggesting that the second half December could have been rather colder than the first half. That was why I, and some other people, were finding your apparent very high confidence in a record mild December hard to understand at that time.


As I said, there is now a good chance you will be proved right, but it is one thing to merely suggest a record breaking month and quite another to go on about it as if it's a dead cert to happen from a way off. You have got lucky this month, big time.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


What- so he got it right, and it was luck. Does that mean contrary predictions were just bad luck?


You know, when the *** allows medicines through quickly, on a black-box basis, it makes a difference (aspirin). When it insists it has to go through a ceremony of reverence, there is a delay.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Brian Gaze
20 December 2015 22:43:11

Interesting view! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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idj20
20 December 2015 22:51:22

Not sure I'm that keen on the set up at around the 240 hrs mark as shown on the latest GFS run (18z). A stand off with 955 mb directly to the west of the UK and 1035 mb quite close by to the east of the UK = several days of strong/gale force southerly winds.

Yuk, but it is at 240 hrs, still in FI territory. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
Gooner
20 December 2015 22:52:54

Certainly something interesting happening , it remains to be seen where we end up.....obviously , but much more interesting

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Fothergill
20 December 2015 23:00:41


Not sure I'm that keen on the set up at around the 240 hrs mark as shown on the latest GFS run (18z). A stand off with 955 mb directly to the west of the UK and 1035 mb quite close by to the east of the UK = several days of strong/gale force southerly winds.

Yuk, but it is at 240 hrs, still in FI territory. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Yeah, if the beast doesn't come off may we end up in the doomsday scenario with mild SWlys, gales and copious amounts of rain. The Sceuro high may be a curse for us unless it can deliver.

David M Porter
20 December 2015 23:02:54


 


What- so he got it right, and it was luck. Does that mean contrary predictions were just bad luck?


You know, when the *** allows medicines through quickly, on a black-box basis, it makes a difference (aspirin). When it insists it has to go through a ceremony of reverence, there is a delay.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


All I said was there is now a good chance Moomin will be right with what he predicted. It will be the final CET figure for the month, which I imagine won't be known until the early days of January that will confirm one way or the other whether he is proved right or wrong with his prediction.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Shropshire
20 December 2015 23:10:04

The Met Office outlook reflects the ECM scenario I think, that if the Scandi High fails, then it's SW/Southerles for a good part of January. It looks an all or nothing, and we are going to be on the Atlantic side of the great divide.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Shropshire
20 December 2015 23:16:35


 


Can you please try and be a little more informative with your posts


How do you come to the conclusion you have considering the ECM output ( we see ) hasn't even reached December 31st?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


I just see it as a long way back if we get to there, everything is in the wrong place for cold to get to the UK. The low pressure blues to the NW are as monstrous as I've ever seen

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
moomin75
20 December 2015 23:20:30


 


All I said was there is now a good chance Moomin will be right with what he predicted. It will be the final CET figure for the month, which I imagine won't be known until the early days of January that will confirm one way or the other whether he is proved right or wrong with his prediction.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Oh I'm well out with my CET prediction David. LOL. I didn't honestly expect it to be THIS warm so went for a conservative though very mild 7.5c. Little did I know I'd end up being potentially 1.5-2c out and still win the competition for this month!!


 


Edit. Actually GW went slightly warmer than me but only an insane person would have predicted a December CET above 9c.


So I am very fallible despite my confidence that this month would be exceptionally mild.


One thing I can say. I won't be calling exceptionally mild for January based on what I've seen so far, plus my methods behind LRFing. 😀


David, this is exactly what makes this forum so marvellous is that generally speaking we are all allowed to speak our mind without fear of reprisals or abusive retorts. When it did get briefly out of hand you were quick to stamp it out and this place is all the better for it. Long may it continue.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
20 December 2015 23:25:30


 


 


I just see it as a long way back if we get to there, everything is in the wrong place for cold to get to the UK. The low pressure blues to the NW are as monstrous as I've ever seen


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Forecasting for the 42 days is a very brave thing to do. Any thoughts on February based on the next 240hrs (which of course are yet to happen and whose forecast synoptics are changing with each run)?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
20 December 2015 23:26:42


 


Forecasting for the 42 days is a very brave thing to do. Any thoughts on February based on the next 240hrs (which of course are yet to happen and whose forecast synoptics are changing with each run)?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I confidently predict it'll rain some time in February. 😂😂😂

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Bertwhistle
20 December 2015 23:27:35


Oh I'm well out with my CET prediction David. LOL. I didn't honestly expect it to be THIS warm so went for a conservative though very mild 7.5c. Little did I know I'd end up being potentially 1.5-2c out and still win the competition for this month!!


 


Edit. Actually GW went slightly warmer than me but only an insane person would have predicted a December CET above 9c.


So I am very fallible despite my confidence that this month would be exceptionally mild.


One thing I can say. I won't be calling exceptionally mild for January based on what I've seen so far, plus my methods behind LRFing. 😀


David, this is exactly what makes this forum so marvellous is that generally speaking we are all allowed to speak our mind without fear of reprisals or abusive retorts. When it did get briefly out of hand you were quick to stamp it out and this place is all the better for it. Long may it continue.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


And now? Insane to the left, say aye. Less than 9C to the right...

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
doctormog
20 December 2015 23:29:40


I confidently predict it'll rain some time in February. 😂😂😂


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Shush you I predict it will snow as soon as you leave the country. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
20 December 2015 23:30:27


 


And now? Insane to he left, say aye. Less than 9C to the right...


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Its been truly exceptional Bert.....I would go as far as to say this month won't be beaten in our lifetime and probably for hundreds of years, even if AGW does kick in.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
20 December 2015 23:33:29


The control sees it very differently to the OP, several options clearly on the table

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
20 December 2015 23:35:06


Its been truly exceptional Bert.....I would go as far as to say this month won't be beaten in our lifetime and probably for hundreds of years, even if AGW does kick in.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Agreed Moomin; like many others I focus on hot summers and cold winters. Awakenings! Amazing monthly anomaly however it ends. Seems almost impossible it'll end below the 8.1, But you never know.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gooner
20 December 2015 23:37:08


 


 


I just see it as a long way back if we get to there, everything is in the wrong place for cold to get to the UK. The low pressure blues to the NW are as monstrous as I've ever seen


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Please explain ,  everything is in the 'wrong place' .


The LP blues to the NW are as monstrous as you've seen????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
21 December 2015 00:44:38


 


Please explain ,  everything is in the 'wrong place' .


The LP blues to the NW are as monstrous as you've seen????


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Shropshire couldn't have done much model watching during winter 2013-14 then. The Polar Vortex we had that winter was probably about as persistently strong as we're ever likely to see.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Retron
21 December 2015 05:53:51
Although it's far from likely, perturbation 15 from the 0z GEFS shows how to get a cold spell from the heights we'll be seeing over Scandinavia.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1 

Note the "upside down L" pattern in the vicinity of Scandinavia; it shows warm air advection on a south-north trajectory, sharply curving eastwards at a high lattitude. Under the "L" is a high and due to its location it effortlessly punts a parcel of deep cold air our way.

That "upside down L" is something worth looking for, it's the next stage on from getting that south-north warm air advection.
Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
21 December 2015 05:57:30

As expected the one-off operational bingo run from yesterday's  12z has not been replicated on the GEFS for the 0z today.



There do not appear to be a cluster of runs that bring deep cold in around the end of the first week in Jan.  There is one rogue run that brings 3 days of cold in about 10 days time.  Otherwise, the rise in pressure over Scandi only serves to send the WAA on a NEly trajectory which is curtains for our chances of cold from the NE  We need due northward WAA towards the pole from Blighty, a rare set up in reality, and even quite rare in model land.


I will continue to watch, but it appears the "happy ending" to the record warm spell has disappeared, at least for the present.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Shropshire
21 December 2015 06:57:09

More ridiculous warmth from the ECM next week, strong SW winds and the Euro High.


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

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