theweatheroutlook

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Maunder Minimum
22 December 2015 22:12:35
Let's face it, the weather outlook is as depressing as it depressingly usually is at this time of year in the UK!
I see no Christmas cheer or New Year promise in any of the pathetic model output at the moment, ECM or otherwise.
New world order coming.
Andy Woodcock
22 December 2015 22:52:22


 


Seriously Martin? Of course Andy's pessimistic guesswork may be correct but with the massive range of options across the northern latitudes by day 10 on the ECM output such conclusions simply cannot be drawn from the ECM chart. It is an option but only one of many. 


There are times when the models display high confidence levels (statistically), this is not one of them http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=2&x=&y=&run=0&lat=57.125506072874494&lon=-2.169811320754718&runpara=0


If it turns out Andy's (and others') two month forecasts based on 10 days of selected data are correct I'm sure they will be lauded as excellent forecasts but they are no more than guesswork based on continuation of the status quo.


Failure to recognise probability and to go with the most likely option as the only one is risky even if you do end up with the "right answer".


Mind you it's a win win and an easy option isn't it? Forecast mild and it's mild and you can say "I told you so", forecast mild and it turns cold and no one cares that you were wrong! (And forecast or discuss anything else and you're labelled as unrealistic, naive, immature or a cold ramper regardless of the analysis*). 


*These labels are all from personal experience in past years. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


its not just guess work, having closely observed UK winters for the last 50 years some experience is gained and I can tell you now that such exceptionally mild Decembers as we have now are always followed by a mild January and February.


Thats not pattern matching it's recognising the positive feed backs that are perpetuating the current mild weather are there likely continuation.


I would love to be proved wrong but I am not going to ignore 200 years of winter weather records that indicate a very mild December is followed by a mild January and February.


To ignore such clear data is plane daft.


Andy


tion.

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Maunder Minimum
22 December 2015 22:55:27
Andy is correct I am afraid. If the 18z operational is to be believed, we had better emulate Noah and start building arks - it is dismal. Wind/rain/wind/rain/wind/rain

I never expected the dire 2013-14 experience to be repeated so faithfully so soon.
New world order coming.
David M Porter
22 December 2015 23:12:48

The GFS 18z op, like the 12z shows the PV lessening in strength as we move into early January, although things remain very unsettled for the UK throughout. Also, as with the 12z, it shows the "Euroslug" High losing some strength as well as time goes on.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
22 December 2015 23:14:25

Andy is correct I am afraid. If the 18z operational is to be believed, we had better emulate Noah and start building arks - it is dismal. Wind/rain/wind/rain/wind/rain

I never expected the dire 2013-14 experience to be repeated so faithfully so soon.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


At least the Euroslug looks to be on the way out according to that run, and the PV looks like weakening a bit as well, as I commented above.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
22 December 2015 23:19:35


 


its not just guess work, having closely observed UK winters for the last 50 years some experience is gained and I can tell you now that such exceptionally mild Decembers as we have now are always followed by a mild January and February.


Thats not pattern matching it's recognising the positive feed backs that are perpetuating the current mild weather are there likely continuation.


I would love to be proved wrong but I am not going to ignore 200 years of winter weather records that indicate a very mild December is followed by a mild January and February.


To ignore such clear data is plane daft.


Andy


tion.


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Ignoring data? I'm analysing current data!  Something which this thread is for. There is a separate thread for winter predictions and prospects ad far as I can see? This thread seems to be cluttered with posts saying "the next x weeks will be..."


If it was as easy as looking at the past 200 years of data and being able to make an accurate forecast do you honestly think the Met Office would have nailed it?! The U.K. weather is both chaotic and unpredictable hence the need for constant in depth analysis of the model output rather than just going for the form horse. I could easily say "this month has been mild, many of the charts for the next week to ten days show a climatically normal westerly regime therefore the rest of the winter will be like that". The majority of the time I would be correct yet all the time I would be posting in the wrong thread. 


I'm gnoring nothing but the verified statistics clearly prove the limitations of even the best models beyond a week or so (not my opinion just fav). Therefore everything beyond that is at best educated guesswork and pattern matching. 2015/16 is unique in the same way as 2014/15 was and 2016/17 will be.


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
22 December 2015 23:20:34

I've just read some nonsense above from the usual suspects in which they appear to claim to know for a fact that the rest of the winter will be mild and wet. Such posts are of course just that- nonsense. However, if you want to make posts like this, we have a winter prospects thread and a winter moans thread for that sort of thing.


Please use those threads for such posting instead of this one, and keep this thread for the purpose for which it is intended; discussion of what the models are showing us rather than making posts which are based on nothing other than unfounded speculation.


Thank you.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chiltern Blizzard
22 December 2015 23:27:09


 


its not just guess work, having closely observed UK winters for the last 50 years some experience is gained and I can tell you now that such exceptionally mild Decembers as we have now are always followed by a mild January and February.


Thats not pattern matching it's recognising the positive feed backs that are perpetuating the current mild weather are there likely continuation.


I would love to be proved wrong but I am not going to ignore 200 years of winter weather records that indicate a very mild December is followed by a mild January and February.


To ignore such clear data is plane daft.


Andy


tion.


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


The data is not clear on mild Decembers... Yes, there have been cases of mild Decembers followed by mild Jan/Febs (e.g. 1974/75 and 1988/89) but there are a various years where this wasn't so (1900/01, 1918/19, 1953/54, 1954/55).  Also, this month seems to be turning out to be unique in terms of its incredible mildness, looking to finish way above even 1974, so any predictions based on prior years are tenuous in my view. You may be right, you may not be, but I believe the strength of your pessimism is unfounded 22 days into a 91 day season.


 


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
pdiddy
22 December 2015 23:29:36












































































































































top 20DecJanFeb
19748.16.84.4
19348.14.55.8
18527.75.10.6
17337.64.36.4
19887.56.15.9
17107.55.02.0
18437.43.81.6
18287.40.34.3
18987.34.95.1
18577.33.41.8
19007.23.52.3
18687.25.67.5
18427.24.01.9
19536.92.92.6
19186.92.91.9
18336.97.15.6
18276.95.15.2
19546.82.61.2
19246.85.35.2
18066.82.83.7
average7.34.33.8
average3.33.9

5 minutes in excel shows the following for Jan and Feb CET in winter months following the 20 highest Dec CET values, plus overall average CET.  Formatting is a bit wonky, but Average Jan CET following the top 20 Decembers is 4.3 v 3.3, so SCORCHIO!  a Whopping 1.0 degrees above average.  The Feb values are 3.8 v 3.9.  This has not undergone peer review


 


 

Shropshire
22 December 2015 23:46:17


 


its not just guess work, having closely observed UK winters for the last 50 years some experience is gained and I can tell you now that such exceptionally mild Decembers as we have now are always followed by a mild January and February.


Thats not pattern matching it's recognising the positive feed backs that are perpetuating the current mild weather are there likely continuation.


I would love to be proved wrong but I am not going to ignore 200 years of winter weather records that indicate a very mild December is followed by a mild January and February.


To ignore such clear data is plane daft.


Andy


tion.


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


 


Yes, this is actually especially so in the last 20 odd years. From my records when December has been markedly above average the subsequent January and February have been above average and/or mild on all but 2 months. And thats from about 13-15 above average Decembers depending on when you want to start measuring from.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Shropshire
22 December 2015 23:50:19

Thanks pdiddy, may be useful to add the more recent Decembers that are at 5-6C, I believe a lot of them will show mild Jan/Febs.


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Shropshire
22 December 2015 23:56:01


 


The data is not clear on mild Decembers... Yes, there have been cases of mild Decembers followed by mild Jan/Febs (e.g. 1974/75 and 1988/89) but there are a various years where this wasn't so (1900/01, 1918/19, 1953/54, 1954/55).  Also, this month seems to be turning out to be unique in terms of its incredible mildness, looking to finish way above even 1974, so any predictions based on prior years are tenuous in my view. You may be right, you may not be, but I believe the strength of your pessimism is unfounded 22 days into a 91 day season.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


Possibly, but you have to consider the recent 'form' that I've been looking at. Its a bit like losing three or four nil every week for the last few weeks and saying, ah well it's a different game next week, could all change. It probably won't = because there's a reason for it.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Chiltern Blizzard
23 December 2015 00:05:57


 


 


Possibly, but you have to consider the recent 'form' that I've been looking at. Its a bit like losing three or four nil every week for the last few weeks and saying, ah well it's a different game next week, could all change. It probably won't = because there's a reason for it.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Granted, it's more likely there'll be a milder rest of winter, but pattern matching is a fool's game when it comes to weather.  As for your suggestion Decembers above6c, look at 1985 and 1986... I'd take those... 1977 too.


Edit: when I say 'more likely' i mean slightly so, and certainly not enough to call the rest of the season. I seen people 'throw in the towel in early February, late January even (sometimes prematurely), but never before Christmas... Such pessimism is silly in my opinion.


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
pdiddy
23 December 2015 00:09:00


Thanks pdiddy, may be useful to add the more recent Decembers that are at 5-6C, I believe a lot of them will show mild Jan/Febs.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


the last 20 or so years where CET for DEC is >=5 have Jan as 4.4 (avg 4.2 across entire population in that period)  and Feb as 4.3 (avg 4.3)

pdiddy
23 December 2015 00:11:17

Meanwhile, back on topic, a cooling trend in the 18z:


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Chiltern Blizzard
23 December 2015 00:14:05


 


 


Yes, this is actually especially so in the last 20 odd years. From my records when December has been markedly above average the subsequent January and February have been above average and/or mild on all but 2 months. And thats from about 13-15 above average Decembers depending on when you want to start measuring from.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Also, the Febs from the list are (just) below average, with very many distinctly cold ones! To write of Feb at this stage is crazy!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Sevendust
23 December 2015 06:16:07

GFS continuing to throw up a nasty low pressure around the 29th which has some support from UKMO as well.


Assuming it develops the track will be key as the signs are it may come a bit closer than "Eva".


Meanwhile the GEFS ensembles paint a zonal picture with a good spread of airmass options but a slight cooling overall as you might expect as we head into deep winter.

nsrobins
23 December 2015 06:51:31
If 'Eva' is a fairly open but admittedly potent daughter type low with currently no especially significant deepening modelled or wind velocities no greater than a typical winter gale, what do we call a storm when it really is worth mentioning? 🤒
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
23 December 2015 06:58:25


GFS continuing to throw up a nasty low pressure around the 29th which has some support from UKMO as well.


Assuming it develops the track will be key as the signs are it may come a bit closer than "Eva".


Meanwhile the GEFS ensembles paint a zonal picture with a good spread of airmass options but a slight cooling overall as you might expect as we head into deep winter.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Close attention needs to be paid to that Dave. A quick assessment of all model output this morning would suggest the atlantic powering through. Any blocking that takes place to the E and NE after Christmas by and large gets pushed back eastwards or sunk southwards as we head towards new year.


Wet and very windy sums things up. Cooler in the north at times too.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Brian Gaze
23 December 2015 07:09:26

What the hell have they fuelled the ECM op run with this winter? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
JACKO4EVER
23 December 2015 07:55:04

If 'Eva' is a fairly open but admittedly potent daughter type low with currently no especially significant deepening modelled or wind velocities no greater than a typical winter gale, what do we call a storm when it really is worth mentioning? 🤒

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


BeliEVA?

Brian Gaze
23 December 2015 08:00:50

If 'Eva' is a fairly open but admittedly potent daughter type low with currently no especially significant deepening modelled or wind velocities no greater than a typical winter gale, what do we call a storm when it really is worth mentioning? 🤒


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


If they'd said all winter storms were to be known as Gale the problem wouldn't arise.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
23 December 2015 08:12:04


 


Close attention needs to be paid to that Dave. A quick assessment of all model output this morning would suggest the atlantic powering through. Any blocking that takes place to the E and NE after Christmas by and large gets pushed back eastwards or sunk southwards as we head towards new year.


Wet and very windy sums things up. Cooler in the north at times too.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Moanin' all you TWO readers. Indeed, looking through the ol' models while doing my own forecast, it is quite hard to ignore the fact that things may turn properly unsettled as we go into the "No Man's Land" bit between Christmas and the New Year.
   But "how bad" is it going to get on a country-wide scale? That's another question what with the models all coming up with slightly different solutions - but one thing for certain that it is not going to snow at my back yard for a long while yet.
   I, for one, really can't be doing with a repeat of Winter 2014, talk about rubbing salt into the wound especially as it is already rotten over certain parts of the country as it is, but I guess there's absolutely nothing I can do about it if and when the weather does turn sour at this end. Of course, it won't stop the likes of Nathan Rao issuing those stupid outlandish weather headlines including obligatory stock photos of 100 foot waves smashing against a lighthouse.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
23 December 2015 08:21:52


What the hell have they fuelled the ECM op run with this winter? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Whatever it is, it's been at the top end of its ensembles for days now!


Talking of which, here's today's offering. Note the remarkably tight clustering on the 30th.


Leysdown, north Kent
roger63
23 December 2015 08:47:01


 


Close attention needs to be paid to that Dave. A quick assessment of all model output this morning would suggest the atlantic powering through. Any blocking that takes place to the E and NE after Christmas by and large gets pushed back eastwards or sunk southwards as we head towards new year.


Wet and very windy sums things up. Cooler in the north at times too.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Agree with your analysis Gusty.GEFS shows the pendulum swinging back from strong HP development around t28th to Atlantic pushing through strongly.

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