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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122712/gfsnh-0-120.png?12
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015122712/UN120-21.GIF?27-17
and at 120h
Looks like a rain fest from New Year's Day 😒😒🌂🌂🌂
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015122712/UN144-21.GIF?27-17
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122712/gfsnh-0-144.png?12
The differences at 144h
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Its trying that's for sure.
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
I wouldn't exactly say that
They don't look vastly different to me Marcus, or maybe I'm missing something?
More misery for those up North
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
Sorry , a bit misleading , differences , meaning slight. The LP's are tad different, but the general idea is the same.
Apologies
No way back once this low deepens near the UK instead of going under. The UKMO may go a similar way as it has an even deeper feature. Makes for interesting model viewing anyway, I love a good Atlantic vs Block battle. FIGHT
GFS12z certainly looking seasonal and bringing plenty of snow to northern hills.
No worries.
It looks as though we're about to finally see the back of the "Euroslug" at least. That won't be enough in itself to facilitate a major pattern change, but it would be a start.
Oh indeed David
At least it's a change of sorts...............................but a soden one, beit wet or white
One thing is for sure, if verified , this will feel freezing
A lot of rain looks likely but the distribution will probably be different as more mobility returns. That's good news for the flooded areas in the medium term.
UkMO looks better for an undercut to me but very difficult to say. Disappointing GFS though a rainfest rather than a snowfest no let up for flooded areas.
For me the important thing about the 12 GFS suite is the NH profile more broadly by the end of FI. Never to be taken seriously OF COURSE but useful for assessing trends and direction of travel. The number of Icelandic/scandi/arctic/Greenland areas of HP, whilst not all of much immediate use, would appear to support the consensus that the vortex is coming under increasing strain. Talk in strat thread on other side about potential SSWs, which coupled with the usual second-half-of-winter-caveats attached to El Nino years, certainly perk up my interest. Things to watch for I would say, but unless you live on hills in the North or parts of central/Eastern Scotland, nothing desperate to get excited about in the medium term. That's my view at least!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png
Berlin looking pretty odds on for a cold spell now which is encouraging, although not a particularly long lived event even for there currently.
P18 is an exception :
I don't what some are seeing but the UKMO at +144 is perfectly aligned for an undercut.
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021
It depends how you read these two charts.Looking at the changes from 120h to 144h I see the LP moving NW rather than moving SE and undercutting.
These look less cold to me than some of the recent sets but I've not been paying much attention and could be wrong.
