I would agree with all that excwpt for the step backward bit. The signs are as strong if not stronger than before. Still a lower probability option but as the days go by and the timescale gets closer that probability gets stronger.

As for right now, it is nice to look at and any cold spell that comes to fruition has to start somewhere. At least it's nice to have something to discuss that's not endless mild unsettled muck.

Nice try. Whilst not a certain, a change to a colder outlook is a step forward, not backwards. But you're certainly correct about the rainfall next week. Those areas could do with the change some of the models are showing.

Impressive consistency for what I think is the fundamental building block of this pattern change, i.e the block north of central Siberia.

ECM 12z 24 Dec:

And the same chart tonight, three days later:

The only real difference appears to be that it's even yellower over Novaya Zemlya, and we see the first hint of an undercut. 

With this level of consistency I'd be confident at least for some decent respite from euroslugs and tropical south-westerlies

A bit crude this, but you can see the trends in the ECMF and GEFS output over the past few days (25th in red, 26th purple, 27th usual colours).

GEFS shot up yesterday and has maintained its stance today. ECMF has steadily trended upward with the amplification.

UKMO suddenly fell off a cliff yesterday but has turned around and edged back up a little again today.

The greater easterly promise has coincided well with this in the case of ECM's op runs, less so with GFS but there may be progressive bias issues there.

I'm not convinced that we're really going to score big the first time around, but a glancing affair with the stage set for further bites of the cherry seems a reasonable punt. So often wet and windy for the first week or so of Jan with a couple of cold snowy days possible for the northeast, otherwise temps oscillating around average - perhaps a bit above in the south(west).

That theme is what I'm seeing in loose terms at the moment, but if the MJO outlooks continue to amplify further in phase 7 then a greater influence from the east will become more plausible IMO.

yes your right as regards timescale, some of this is inching closer to the more reliable periods, however as always we have to urge caution with easterlies. The NH view though is quite revealing, the vortex under all sorts of pressure and with some good doses of WAA- for sure someone is going to get a real blast of winter at some point. Wether that's us, Greece or some other exotic place remains to be seen. 

Some reasonable cross model consistency in the overall pattern in the 240h NH charts tonight, with some decent northern blocking, expansion of the PFJ with high pressure belts being pushed south of us. We in Blighty might not get anything particularly special out of this in this time frame but there can be little denying that there looks to be a major pattern change on the agenda.

18Z GFS goes back to its plan as shown on the 6z and has the LP further South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn724.gif

More rain where we just don't need it

but we end up in pretty much the same place as the 12z with the colder uppers heading for Shetland as the low fails to undercut south-east into France! 

Less of a fight from the HP on this run, look at the Atlantic , I fear the North will see more repeats of the flooding

Fascinating model watching. In my opinion the WAA is so strong and effective that it is promoting High Pressure over Scandinavia but maybe a tad further north based on today's trends.

The undecut is still in the minority but it is still a perfectly plausible outcome. This evenings run so far have halted the growing probability of an easterly but not reduced it. Maintaining this around 10-15%.

Its pointless talking specifics at this stage but based on today's NWP I would be quietly optimistic for a snow event if I lived in the NE but perhaps more concerned about a possible rainfest further south and west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1804.gif

The rain just continues

Very unsettled

What's a bit disconcerting is the signal for heights to the NE to slowly drain away E, leaving us on a knife-edge with regards to holding back the Atlantic from swamping us. 

ECM ens mean shows not much of a block by day 8 as does the other NWP. So I think some battleground snow events are possibility (if the Gods smile on us) which would suit me nicely, but it's going to be very difficult to hold back the Atlantic for long IMHO. But we'll see, interesting model watching anyway.

GFS18z still looking reasonably mild at 213:

Cold and Raw

Mild????  Really

Looks chilly to me

Very different to what we have seen for the last few weeks

Where the infamous and stereotypical "New Year, old weather!" quote springs to mind!! LOL.

But hope for a change - these poor people up in flooded areas too!!

On first inspection the 18z ensembles look a little more progressive at +120-144, but still some interesting scenarios. Its very much on a knife edge, and not that far out....

Control at +144