All I can say is that I am glad FI is from T+120! Whilst the UK is desperately and understandably seeking a break from the Atlantic with drier weather, I am dreading the prospect of a prolonged Scandi High.

1. It is boring.


2. The cold just cuts through me and especially so from tomorrow and through until Friday with the strong squeeze of S'ly winds! Minus temperatures and fresh to strong winds are not my thing!


3. The idea of being on the northern side of the jet with HP and the flow moving from E to W can be difficult to break once locked.

A Greenland High, on the other hand, is much more appealing

I know some people don't like Mean charts but these are the coldest yet so expect the ECM ensembles to be colder this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

Heres the 0z ensemble suit for SW Holland/ N Belgium.  The op is far from the coldest and is drawing ensemble support.  I wasn't expecting that, I was expecting it to be a cold outlier.... The control gives almost 4 ice days just across the channel/ N Sea.  Game NOT over yet

Hmmmm - I see it differently and would say the op was a cold outlier of sorts. The 3rd/4th January is the period when most diversions occur but I guess this shows how differently people analyse data. It is all subjective but this makes the perfect recipe for good debate

As Neil and Steve mentioned earlier, the GEFS must also be looked at and as such, the MetO update must surely be taken seriously because whilst I know that probably everybody belonging to this forum will already know, even that short distance across the sea into the Low Countries can see extremely very different weather. As cliché as it is, the UK really is the dividing line, the battleground for West v East.

Whether the atlantic eventually wins through or not, the one consistent theme from the models just now is that the Euroslug HP will finally pack it's bags. That should at least allow temps in the UK to return to something closer to average as a whole as opposed to the often very mild values we have seen for much of the time since late October.

Still looking like a cool down is on the cards - GFS ens have currently dropped dragging a 'proper' cold pool over England although temps are still shown to be on the cooler side of average mostly, bar a few blips. (Given the proper cold was always a minority option not surprised to see it go and wouldn't be surprised to see it back on subsequent runs either!).

ECM is nice, if a little messy - suspect higher parts of Scotland would need to be dug out if that run comes off as shown. As others have said would assume at least some parts of England (chiefly Midlands North) would see snow from that run too.

Assuming things do happen roughly as shown the drop in temps will still feel noticeable even if we don't get much below average - 6c or so down here after weeks of 10-15c will be a shock to the system

One other nice thing to see is the lack of organised PV as shown on the ECM 240 chart:-

Might not lead to anything (else) but surely a lot easier to get a cold spell from that than an organised PV around Greenland spinning LP's over us constantly

Looking at the GEFS ENS it looks like the Atlantic does win through.The ratios of Zonal:easterly are

144h 85;15

192h 75:25

240h 75:25

This represents a sharp swing back to zonal compared to yesterday (roughly 55:45)

The main feature of the flow is depressions running further south running west to east but generally not far enough south to allow cold easterlies to penetrate over the UK.

Just what we dont want

Hopefully this will be of benefit to us in the long run just as it was in early 2013.

IIRC there was a SW event just before the end of 2012 which helped to damaged the PV and likely helped to eventually get us out of the zonal rut we were in over the festive season at the end of 2012/start of 2013. As I recall, there was some rather bad flooding in places that Xmas as well, not surprising after a year as wet as 2012 was.

There was lots of talk of changes back in 97/98 and 98/99 but they never came.

The METO remain steadfast in their update this morning and as I said yesterday, the problem is that the block is too far to the NE to stop or divert the Atlantic for our benefit. The ECM OP offers interest but is in a minority on its own ensembles and I'm afraid we must accept what the GFS shows as the very likely scenario - and a disaster for the flooded areas.

Going forward the Euro High has gone yes, but if the Atlantic forces the Russian block any further away, then heights will raise again over the Med and its not inconceivable that we could be back at square 1 by mid-Jan.

The area of cold looks menacing , shame its coming against such s force

You're dogmatic stance is not doing you any favours on this thread, Shropshire. I don't necessarily accept one showing of one model and as far as I can read, neither do other posters.

I cringe on your behalf.

I certainly wouldnt want you next to me in the trenches

The other day you were shouting about ECM and it matched the METO's veiw of  January .......totally dismissing what GFS was showing.

But please carry on, it is amusing.

P.S You have an excellent memory for a newbie

Are you referring to today's 1-5 day forecast from the Met Office (as the extended outlooks have not been published yet, not that I expect to see much of a change in them anyway)?

And yet more rain

With respect, this is 2015/16 we're in now, not 1997/98 nor 1998/99.

'if' this run verifies then the already flooded areas face a load more misery

Certainly a very wet 06z so far, and probably going to go on to show a return to conventional zonality later on. 

For those of us (me included) chasing ghosts in the ECM Operationals have a look at the Phil Avery interview on the BBC website, excellent article on the massive ElNino and it's global warming effects.

it seems to me that looking for a cold easterly in the current global pattern is like trying to stop your ice cream melting with the Central heating full on!

Very few parts of the world have cold weather at the moment and despite some good ECM charts the betting must be that mild weather will prevail in the medium to long term, it's crap but no choice but to endure it.

Andy

Does this low look to anybody else as if it would prefer to slip under the high?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_189_mslp850.png?cb=217

I think we now have to start getting our heads around the fact that we could be staring at some particularly violent and stormy weather with heavy rain around the 4th January. With temperatures back to normal it will feel perishing.

GEM 0z

GFS 06z.

If these charts do verify Marcus, it will be a disaster for the flood hit areas. Whilst the block to the E offers hope for a change, the irony is that stalled fronts will only serve to worsen the flooding. The double whammy? The flooding could be worse than if it were a typical zonal flow...