It has yes but we are well into FI at this point

Given the copious amount of warm air that Frank is going to drag into the Arctic at middle altitudes this week, I wonder how accurately the models are coping with it with regard raising heights in that area. We could very well see increasing height rises in the Greenland region in the next few runs.

Liking the last few ukmo runs. As Boris would say, 'very nice' 😎

Better energy just clawing away to the east again grenny helps out jet slumps a little more 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=0&carte=1

GEM @132h

Have to remember it was GEM that first picked up on the idea of the HP in the East moving across parts of Europe

Note also from the charts posted above how much weaker the polar vortex is shown to be. I imagine it must be considerably weaker to what it was at the corresponding stage in each of the last two years.

It looks like the 12z op increases heights over Greenland whilst the remnants of the PV are held out in the Atlantic...noted as a trend item of course.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122912/gfs-0-228.png?12

GEM not looking too shabby either with the colder air closer to our shores than on the 0z run.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015122912/gem-1-180.png

its smashed David look who trying very hard to poke her noise too greeny 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

GFS12z will be one the milder GEFS runs this evening. If it verified the southern half of the UK would probably be over par by CET mid Jan.  

My house, 5 minutes ago.  Putting something away for the moment...

😂

I only have one towel, but I always know where it is 😉

Nice 6z Pee run plenty of potential on several occasions

I don't in any way want to tempt fate here, but if the current model output verifies as shown, we could be looking at a similar dramatic switch in pattern to those what occurred between January & February 1983 (very mild January, much colder February), and December 1986 & January 1987 (mild & unsettled December, much colder January with major wintry spell in middle of the month).

Unless the models have it completely wrong, it can't be rules out I would have thought.

You never know when you're gonna need it in this country!

Some are showing a nice bit of leg for sure 

I'm not a huge fan of the accuracy of the UKMO at T144, and of course their own forecast doesn't support what COULD be the outcome if that chart went to T168 - though they do see a T168 chart at Exeter.

I think the ECM will be more like the GFS though probably somewhere in between the GFS/UKMO as the GFS can be too aggressive with LP development.

I quite agree David, I referred to those 80's spells earlier in the thread. The WAA produced by storm Frank is quite impressive, though I do suspect the models may be under estimating things a tad. If this is the case then expect further fun and games- I would be looking to a slumping jet and pressure rises over Greenland to further nail home the cold potential. Very much game on.

Yes, while the height rises over Greenland might look good, all they really do is push the European cold pool back eastwards so we end up with a cool NWerly. Any deep cold from the east is further than ever on this run.

Yes the problem here is that you won't get a true blocking Greeny from this set-up, just perhaps a couple of cool days as the troughing pulls away into Europe before low pressure develops in the mid-Atlantic and reintroduces zonality.

How do you know for sure we won't get a stronger Greenland block? As Jacko said above, the is a chance the models may be underestimating the amount of WAA generated by storm Frank. If they are, then nothing should be assumed IMO.

Some very nice members in the mix Brian most with more +ve heights grenny

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=174