Still the odd colder option in the 0z set but the focus remains on the unsettled conditions.

The only possible spoiler for the Atlantic triumph is that the shot of WAA currently underway is so off the scale (look at surface temperatures above zero at the North Pole on the chart: Surely this is unprecedented in mid winter???????) that maybe the models are not factoring its effects in?

Physics is physics and its laws don't change.

Looking at the ECM which is very similar to UKMO at 144 then the cold spell will be short lived in the north and non existent in the south which still awaits it's first air frost.

After that the colder air over NW Europe is blown away and we are back to square 1 with wet windy but slightly cooler weather across the UK but not even any cold zonality to consider.

I have ignored GFS as it's so bad it's a joke.

Andy

Clearly the models will be factoring it in as the US is going somewhat colder as is Russia, Europe is left in the mild slice.

The warm air advected into the high Arctic is more a sign of some exceptional mild air in our section of the globe rather than a precursor to any Arctic plunge certainly at zero degrees West.

Andy

You are correct.  I feel sorry for the people who are cleaning up from one or two floods (or more in some cases) only to become aware that there is much more rain on its way.  Its awful.

Although of course I would guess, but could be wrong, that the weather models have more "experience" of dealing with typical winter weather patterns i.e. more actual past data and observations and therefore more tweaks and corrections for more "normal situations"? Even if this is the case I'm not sure if it would lead to a decrease in accuracy in the current outlook.

Why am I not surprised to see your leaving post is yet again writing off a whole month?

Happy New Year to you as well, hope you come back refreshed and ready for another rollercoaster month of model-watching!

I think this is a myth isn't it? AFAIK the models don't use "experience" or know or care what patterns are being shown and how usual or unusual they are. I would think they are totally deterministic, in that you plug in the temperature, pressure, wind speed etc of each parcel of the atmosphere and then just let it run forward through time, using fixed physical laws.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

That probably came off sounding sarcastic, which wasn't the intent! At least you won't have to watch the model flipflops and "will it, won't it" scenarios which we're bound to see in the meantime.

Back to the models, here's this morning's 0z ECM ensemble output.

Points to note:

• We could see a widespread ground or even air frost early on New Year's Day.


• The op and control are both at the top temperature wise, but there's remarkably little scatter from the 1st ot the 4th.


• A trend towards slightly higher temperatures at the end of the run


• On the whole, temperatures still around average from New Year's Day, it'll feel much colder down here than of late.

4 cluster's on today's ECM 120 stamps. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty, even though the temperatures at 120 don't vary much between the runs.

Click for full size!

I stopped qualifying the location a while ago - as you know by intonation a reference to 850s is accepted to be for London unless otherwise defined. A look at the 850s for Aberdeen this morning will show a higher percentage of colder options of course, but I compare the London chart for trends, etc. But of course you know that already? 

There is much talk of the "Atlantic winning out" but, looking at this mornings runs, it just seems like the battleground remains but is simply too far north and east to affect the UK leaving us with a slow moving low close to our shores and bringing in winds from a westerly quadrant as a result. Many charts that I see +144 are showing height rises over the pole and Greenland which is a step in the right direction for cold setups, starting from the setup we've seen for the past few weeks. It just may be that we need to look north for the next shot at cold rather than east.

The 10-day ops to back up my observations...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

compared to today...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

I'm far from downbeat with respect to cold prospects.

I am, however, feeling sorry for those experiencing all of the flooding up north.

The amateur glimmer from me is that sometimes like 2009 2010 , not always (disclaimer:) ) we have to wait to see the back of the depression "blip" before viewing decent expert prognosis. 

Interesting reads as ever as to wether to grease the runners with a grin or not

Let's hope you're right about that, Jacko.

As Jacko has pointed out above, if "Frank" manages to send a decent shot of WAA into the Arctic as it moves northwards, then that could lead to some more changes in the model output in the coming days. It'll be interesting to see what happens anyway.

3 days ago the clustering between 3rd jan and 9 jan was around the -5 mark.... then 2 days ago it was around the -3 mark... today its back to 0*c.

Now we are left with stalled LPs and fronts. really not what we need right now.  The situation is unbelievably going to get worse in the flooded areas.

Well we are going to have accept that this one has gone, though to be fair it was never near favourite. What's worrying in the longer term is that the models are pushing the jet further North and East, the block is retreating and heights are rising again over Southern Europe.

Every chance that as we head into the middle section of January that we will back to square one, and that's potentially disastrous for the flooded areas, also we would then be well on course for the mildest winter ever.

A quick flick few the final frames of the ensemble suites show that we shouldn't take the temp profiles at face value. Some of the NH profiles are simply crazy, with the vortex shredded and a number of HLBs. Longer term pattern for second half of winter still looks good in my view - anyone disappointed with cold outlook in short term should remember that it was always a minority option! 

Edit: in response to above post, At least as many if not more show conditions conducive to cold by mid Jan as they do conducive to mild weather, so that's what's worth looking at in the longer term. 

Agreed and with charts like this around at 4 to 5 days out I wouldn't take anything for granted http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif