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A new thread in time for the arrival of 2016.
To start off I thought I'd quote Bertwhistle's post from the end of the last thread, sounds potentially interesting.
Quickly then - just seen Louise Lear's outlook for the week; alluded to cold but didn't emphasise record warmth of Dec- only rainfall. Talked about the blocking high coming into play and splitting jet stream.
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle
I am feeling very Murrish tonight. 😁
Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum
Start the thread as we mean to go on, right?
ECM 12z short ensembles have switched quite notably to a 75% milder solution for Holland in the 3-7 day range as opposed to a 50% split previously!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille
Could suggest a low undercutting, sliding into the continent, whilst advecting the cold air westwards on a more northerly track.
Then don't look at these 12z SW Holland ensembles - mild(ish)/ seasonal) all the way. (5% showing cold blip?)
You need to do this, maybe?:
No amount of "Canutism" can hold back the Atlantic it seems!
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Someone said just before the end of the last thread that they had done just that yesterday, and were now looking for their towel!
I think there is one thing we can be reasonably sure of just now, and that is the coming week or so is, for many areas at least, going to be somewhat colder than probably any other week we've had in the past two months. While it looks like staying zonal for a while longer anyway, it doesn't look to be of the same very mild type with a dominant Euro high as per recent weeks. Temps I would suggest are likely to be rather closer to average compared to recently.
A low pressure centred over central southern England would bring East - northeast winds to the northern and South - South west winds to its South... Holland being to towards its South East
ECM ens mean day 7. I can't see Murr's easterly happening from this to be honest
Happy new year
What will the final GFS op run of 2015 bring us, one wonders?
Hope everyone here has a very Happy New Year when it comes.
Happy New Year everyone, as Fothergill has shown, the Atlantic is highly likely to win this one comfortably; the general NWP consensus has not shown anything else as being significantly likely.
Hopefully we can move on from this one and the chase can begin for Greenland heights later in January.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
FWIW I'm actually starting to agree with you there. Some GFS op runs, including the 12z earlier, have been hinting at this in FI. Let's see if this run also shows that.
Happy New Year all! And thanks to those who give up their time to make this happen!
Anyway, one bad set of runs does not mean the end of Winter (just as a single run of cold charts doth not equal snowfest). Let's see what the New Year brings. Still plenty to think about in the next few days (still some cold runs in the GFS ens) and irrespective of the outcome, some fascinating model runs that we can all learn from.
Whatever the weather brings a happy and peaceful 2016 to all.
This coming Thursday on the GFS operational looks interesting with some support from ECM
Happy New Year. May it bring model delight in fantasy and reality!
Originally Posted by: Sevendust
maybe for the Midlands north . . . looks like horizontal rain in our area
Happy New Year all!
Here are this morning's ECM ensembles. It looks like the "continued SW'ly" option is continuing to gain ground this morning, although there's still a good deal of scatter in a week's time.
Happy New Year all.
Check out this chart for a ferocious storm on the south coast. Its been shown a few times now. Gusts 90-100 mph.
I prefer the look of Tues//Wed personally
