http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_225_mslp850.png?cb=675

This looks to be a critical point in the GFS 06 development; that little high not far from the Azores is stopping the next carriage in the relentless LP train from getting across, marrying with the previous low and continuing the pattern. This then appears to allow a more persistent back edge (ie n/w flow) to the lows which then continues to feed a flow from the higher latitudes. It keeps all of us on the right side of the -5 850 line for some time.

The storm on the 11th is indeed a real beast and needs watching. Bye bye Cornwall!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/210h.htm

Worrying rain totals for Aberdeenshire on the EURO4 - up to 170mm, in an area not used to high rainfall totals. They had flooding there a few days ago didn't they? Not good

The GFS has been showing a deep low pressure developing for next Thursday, but this morning 06Z, has it showing for the early hours of Monday 11th. Nothing being mentioned by the UKMO guys as yet, then again, the track is still uncertain. 

Without wishing to sound blunt, there is no way the MetO would mention something 9 days away with a low percentage of occurring. We leave that sort of crystal ball stuff to the gutter press.

It's hard to see anything positive (if you like cold, wintry weather) on the EC ens beyond day 10. If anything, a return to a possible Euro High seems to be the more favoured option at this point.  More runs very much needed. 

I've just switched TWO across to the 'new' ECM datasets. The main benefit is charts should be appearing up to 20 mins earlier than previously from this evening's 12z run.

I've also added in a new UK thickness chart based on ECM data. 

Yes, totally! However, they do have their 10 day outlook broadcast on TV every evening. 

Beyond 5 days it's all about generalities and themes and any major storm systems shown for that time point are indicated as a possibility and that there is potential for it to occur but not necessarily literally where they are shown. Whenever Meto do their 10 day forecasts they only talk about generalities in their forecast output beyond about Day 5.

Stagnating air is very cold regardless of the direction of the wind.

Think this is the closest we can get to a 'UK airmass'. It has the advantage over UK highs of there being a general lack of fog and low cloud which prevents radiation cooling at night.

Average temps are very cold?

The zonal train is still stuck in an endless loop

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010212/UN144-21.GIF?02-17 

Perhaps he was not referring to the places on the map with average temperatures?

I admire your optimism! 

if it's cold your looking for then that's a very unlucky chart for UK. You do have to wonder at times what we have to do to get below average temps!

Not much change really with the GFS and UKMO although the GFS has dropped next weekend's storm.. but the GEM going for a monster 

And the GFS easterly in deep FI replaced by a Bartlett

Still a way away, but suggestions of falling pressure to the south, growing high pressure to the north. We still need more ingredients for a cold spell, but this is a start.

Small nuances aside the GFS 12z follows much the same theme as earlier, the Atlantic still well in control and with this worrying theme of height rises to the South by mid January

UKMO looks wet and windy all next week with GEM potentially stormy for a time thereafter before pressure builds to the South and SW later in its run.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_384_mslp850.png?cb=418

Check out this FI from the GFS 12: really? With those 850s and that SSW ly a bit of sunshine could result in 17C for parts of E/ SE England, bearing in mind the sun would have had a month of ageing since the solstice.