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David M Porter
03 January 2016 21:10:58


 


Weve got a long way to go but it's our best shot at a proper cold spell all winter.  GReenland highs seem to be far more common than Scandinavia highs these days so I'm more confident about this than the new year easterly. Let's hope further runs push the cold uppers all the way south.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


IIRC, both the 2009/10 winter and the late November & December 2010 freezes came about largely due to a Greenland High. At least that is my memory of those periods from following the models in the lead-up to both spells.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
03 January 2016 21:13:08

I would take a smack on the noise for some decent cold Saint



 


 


No, or we'll get a smack on the nose*


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


* obscure Grange Hill reference from c1985 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

nickl
03 January 2016 21:13:46


Mods or Brian is that safe too copy weatherbell charts here as I know in past forums they get very upset about it.


I ask as I dont want Q or anybody else to get in trouble about it.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


its not weatherbell.  I think it could be wunderground? 


mid month northerly been a good extended ens option for quite a while. will the upper pattern support something more sustained? if it does, I suspect an undercutting Atlantic system to follow the northerly around the Scandi trough which approaches at a sw/ne angle and hopefully disrupts se as the occlusion reaches the UK. 

Polar Low
03 January 2016 21:17:20

Thats it my mistake just did not want Q in trouble



 


 


its not weatherbell.  I think it could be wunderground? 


mid month northerly been a good extended ens option for quite a while. will the upper pattern support something more sustained? if it does, I suspect an undercutting Atlantic system to follow the northerly around the Scandi trough which approaches at a sw/ne angle and hopefully disrupts se as the occlusion reaches the UK. 


Originally Posted by: nickl 

Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2016 21:23:20


 


IIRC, both the 2009/10 winter and the late November & December 2010 freezes came about largely due to a Greenland High. At least that is my memory of those periods from following the models in the lead-up to both spells.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes indeed also March 13 as well. Let's jst hope ecm is onto something as we coldies need a break.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
03 January 2016 21:25:07


 


 


its not weatherbell.  I think it could be wunderground? 


mid month northerly been a good extended ens option for quite a while. will the upper pattern support something more sustained? if it does, I suspect an undercutting Atlantic system to follow the northerly around the Scandi trough which approaches at a sw/ne angle and hopefully disrupts se as the occlusion reaches the UK. 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


It isn't wunderground :S


I honestly thought it was weatherbell, if it isn't that then I have no idea.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
03 January 2016 21:33:23
It would be nice to see support from the GFS pub run for the 12z ECM scenario. The building blocks are laid well befor +240hrs however I think a large amount of caution is still needed. The pattern has changed from December and perhaps we are in a transition period, I just wish it would hurry up! At least model watching is currently more interesting than it was a few weeks ago.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
03 January 2016 21:44:16


 


It isn't wunderground :S


I honestly thought it was weatherbell, if it isn't that then I have no idea.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I've removed them. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
03 January 2016 21:47:41

Good thinking Brian Im glad I said something now



 


I've removed them. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Arcus
03 January 2016 21:52:10


 


 * obscure Grange Hill reference from c1985 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


#Say Snow! (Snow), Just Say Snow,


Just Say Snow#


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Saint Snow
03 January 2016 22:07:43


 


#Say Snow! (Snow), Just Say Snow,


Just Say Snow#


 



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 



 


and tonight's winner is... 


 



 


(his girlfriend on GH was one of my first crushes. Her, Susannah Hoffs from the Bangles, and Wendy James from Transvision Vamp.)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downdrafted
03 January 2016 22:18:50
Almost model output discussion 🙂
Fothergill
03 January 2016 22:21:58

Interesting ECM, I mentioned possible height rises towards Greenland due to amplification in the Atlantic earlier.. looks like it has a bit more support now. The ECM ens are surprisingly good too. Of course this is just one outlier run in FI and the charts will show something different tomorrow but some interest at least. I'd much prefer a good Greenland high to a Scandi high, it's the Holy Grail of UK winter setups IMO.


NAEFS also showing tentative signs of Greenland heights building at day 10 but also the Euro high lurking...


Phil G
03 January 2016 22:29:59

Oh no. The 11th isn't looking good at all. Becoming a consistent theme now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1929.gif


EDIT: this is also at the start of a phase of higher tides.


 


 

idj20
03 January 2016 22:32:09

Until we get to the "good stuff" (assuming that'll even come to fruition), I think it might be best to keep an eye on this little bruiser that is still being plotted to scurry along the Atlantic and run onto the Southern half of the UK this time next week.



Making me nervous again, but it is a long way off in forecasting terms and the other outputs aren't showing it so I'm not sure if it is the GFS being on the red bull again. Something like this was shown for this Thursday but had backed away from the idea.

PS: Phil had beaten me to it.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Zubzero
03 January 2016 22:32:37
Better ridging in the Atlantic on the gfs to, and some way ott dartboard low over the UK



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010318/gfs-0-192.png?18 
Phil G
03 January 2016 22:33:57
Doesn't look good does it Ian. As you say, thought GFS has backed away from this.
Fothergill
03 January 2016 22:42:30

GFS 18z not interested in ECM scenario


Day 10:


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2016 22:46:16

Doesn't look good does it Ian. As you say, thought GFS has backed away from this.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Some of the wind barbs at 192 hrs show sustained winds of 55kt next to the Sussex and Kent coasts. 55kt is 63mph. 6 hours before and after in the western channel and later the North Sea we have barbs showing 65kt (74mph). Sustained winds. With gusts at 80kt+ (90mph+) widely for 12 hours at least, and an area showing gusts off the scale but - converting from kph - meaning widely 100mph upwards for at least 6 hours.


I describe this in words because I have no way of posting the images or image links from my iPhone. Maybe someone else can capture them.


I've never seen the like of it on a forecast. Highly improbable it will happen as it's mainly only a GFS feature, but frightening to consider. The angle on the 18z is almost exactly that of the October 87 storm, up along the channel and across Kent. But with what looks like stronger winds for longer.


The way the system then moves into the North Sea piling isobars and very low pressure up against the Low Countries coast at the monthly tidal peak is quite scary.


 


 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Weathermac
03 January 2016 22:46:41
gfs is not far away from ecm so far .
Russwirral
03 January 2016 22:47:30


Until we get to the "good stuff" (assuming that'll even come to fruition), I think it might be best to keep an eye on this little bruiser that is still being plotted to scurry along the Atlantic and run onto the Southern half of the UK this time next week.



Making me nervous again, but it is a long way off in forecasting terms and the other outputs aren't showing it so I'm not sure if it is the GFS being on the red bull again. Something like this was shown for this Thursday but had backed away from the idea.

PS: Phil had beaten me to it.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Was it Q or Murr who said ignore the dartboard lows?  AS its natural for the models to overreact in this setup.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
doctor snow
03 January 2016 22:48:48
Im only go for ecm and met models as i think these are better models than other to me like to see ecm stick to cold in coming days lets hope feed up with this rain and grey skys .every one will get s.a.d soon
Brian Gaze
03 January 2016 22:49:41

Here's the GFS18z storm:


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
idj20
03 January 2016 22:53:01


 


Some of the wind barbs at 192 hrs show sustained winds of 55kt next to the Sussex and Kent coasts. 55kt is 63mph. 6 hours before and after in the western channel and later the North Sea we have barbs showing 65kt (74mph). Sustained winds. With gusts at 80kt+ (90mph+) widely for 12 hours at least, and an area showing gusts off the scale but - converting from kph - meaning widely 100mph upwards for at least 6 hours.


I describe this in words because I have no way of posting the images or image links from my iPhone. Maybe someone else can capture them.


I've never seen the like of it on a forecast. Highly improbable it will happen as it's mainly only a GFS feature, but frightening to consider. The angle on the 18z is almost exactly that of the October 87 storm, up along the channel and across Kent. But with what looks like stronger winds for longer.


The way the system then moves into the North Sea piling isobars and very low pressure up against the Low Countries coast at the monthly tidal peak is quite scary.


 


 


Originally Posted by: TimS 



Cheers for that. I'll have nightmares tonight!   

But indeed, Russwirral, at 7 days away it's probably GFS liking it's dartboard lows. I shall expect to see a reduced version of that idea when I wake up tomorrow morning.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Zubzero
03 January 2016 22:58:33


 


 


Was it Q or Murr who said ignore the dartboard lows?  AS its natural for the models to overreact in this setup.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


It was Q, I agree to a point as well, but the risk or a stormy spell as the trough move's across the UK and in to north west Europe remains.

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