Its an interesting debate, I do tend to side with Steve's view of shortwaves as spoilers.

Northerlies rarely last longer than a few days before some sort of toppling, the question is can we keep the High to the West to allow reloads, or at least not a full blown return to Atlantic zonality ? I think its a possibility.

agreed

and the fact that the Atlantic looks very messy says to be the typical "models getting to grips with a block"

Also - the long term height anomalies is also steering my optimism.

Shortwaves can also steer and shape LPs in our favour though.

I would look to the verification statistics for evidence otherwise the idea is an interesting but completely unsubstantiated hypothesis. As far as I can see the verification stats show model accuracy to be:

1) Somewhat better at higher levels

2) Progressively worse the further ahead the simulation is for, BUT there doesn't appear to be a point where accuracy suddenly collapses

Point 2 makes me doubtful about the short wave hypothesis but I am open to persuasion. Were it correct I would expect accuracy to dramatically fall away at around 120 hours and there seems to be scant evidence of this.  

I am now totally confused. For the past 10 years I have followed the rule of:

Steve Murr in the MO thread = cold and snow likely.

Steve Murr not in the MO thread = cold and snow unlikely.

And now (I think) Steve Murr is in the MO thread saying that cold and snow is unlikely. I need to amend my rules.

I am trying my hardest not to be cynical here....I am really trying hard..........not to be cynical here that is.......

What sort of cryptic post is that -

I know alot of people discount him, but JB has been ranting for days about the GFS not handing the blocking situation that well. I think we could be back on track in a few days,.

Everyone - just calm down... we're getting in a tizz about movement of air for christ's sake!... think about that for a moment.

Edit:  Reading the above I wonder how many people have found themselves doing this: http://i.imgur.com/iWKad22.jpg

The ECM 00z run this morning seemed to indicate to my mind at least that such a scenario could happen. If it did, I for one wouldn't complain.

Back to the Atlantic and the Azores High ? I'm not seeing that, very interesting UKMO and messy GFS.

Classic Block feedback in the charts.

Have faith.

Yep, looks a bit of a strage run indeed. Not sure I buy that evolution from t108 onwards. The low seems to stick around for ages and then everything goes messy. One for the bin?

The corridor of death opens up and then it's Goodnight Vienna...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif


Not sure I buy how quickly the Greenland High deflates on this run.

Welcome to Britain! 

To emphasise your point:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=234&code=0&mode=1

Cold air shalt not reside over the UK

have you ever seen so many H T H T H T ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010512/UN144-21.GIF?05-17

UKMO better than GFS

High over the pole is in a better position and so is the pv helping to promote height rises in Greenland