Yup, it's entirely typical. Take a look at these - in the event, by the 25th we had a countrywide cold spell in progress, one which went on for quite some time (albeit not so much down here!)

It's pretty much unknown to get more than 8 or 9 days of solid cold on those charts.

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Well apart from the mountains of Scotland there does not look much snow on that.

Yes, that's a valid point, and is another reminder of finding a role fit for purpose for the mean.

It's also a very nice thing to hear so I will praise your point regardless.

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European 12z leaves me metaphorically cold but that's about it really (PS: Yes I know it's quite a cold run, but it's not the most exciting!)

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Luke warm support for cold snap from ECM.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

ECM is awful. Heights collapse quickly and normal service resumes

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Yep, you have to say a much more plausible albeit uninspiring run from ECM 12z, compared to the rest of this evening's output.

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If that is "normal service" bring it on. 

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In what way is that normal services? After what has happened thus far that is the driest chart nationally we have seen this winter so far.

Infact I am not sure that high collapses. Looks like an omega block, look at the two little lows on the SW and SE parts of that high.

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once the pv moves back over Greenland and the Azores high returns, there is no quick route back to cold. Shame those heights over the pole have gone. Hope its an outlier

 

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As I have said. First bite fails, second bite game on. Classic 80's style. That block on the 240 ecm is going for scandi I tell you.

Some of the post in here are hilarious. You would have thought we had just found out a comet is going to kill us all rather than viewing a numerical weather model on the Internet

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Poetry in motion from the japs 

End of the ECM 12z shows Atlantic HP ridging into scandy and hints of linking up with Arctic high. All would depend on behaviour of the trough moving south into central Northern Europe of course.

Evening all, some good output for the colder camp but not, I suspect, a snowfest. Thankfully a good deal of dry weather may be on offer, alleviating the current flooding issues hopefully.
Where is Marcus?
I thought the old gooner would be enjoying the output atm with his jff charts

I agree Kevin, can't see where Beast is coming from really.

While the ECM 12z isn't the stella-type run for cold fans that Sunday night's ECM was, neither does it indicate, to my mind anyway, a return to the strong atlantic jet & Euro High dominated runs we saw week after week right up until Christmas.

Given the recent wet spell, which has now been going on for two months, I think that if we're being objective about things we should be welcoming of runs like this evening's ECM.

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There were enough campers on this site only a few days ago writing off the whole of January. A few gutsy souls offered hope for some better weather, be it cold, snow, or for those poor folks further north, just drier. Well, it looks like we'll get it in some form; and even the ECM's not bad at its worst (yes, at its worst, considering its earlier runs show something better, so I have no idea why we should hinge on this one); the current ECM offers a show of Pickwickian 'fine frosty weather'. Rewind 1,2,3 weeks. All will balance out!

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Jeez, you can tell there's some slightly less mild weather in the offing on the MOD.

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That's -because -the models- say -so.

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Heights over the pole gone? As far as I can see the heights still remain and with depth so a proper high as it were. As others have said, with two little pools of energy propping up the Atlantic high on the ECM 12Z I can see it heading up towards the NE on the next virtual charts.

I get the feeling unless you see an 87 style classic Siberian feed you're not going to be happy

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De Bilts in. Quite a cluster at or below 0 beyond 240

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim 

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IF made the comment

"given how a fair proportion of 12z EC ENS/clusters hint at a possible second cold nibble ca. w/c 18th, it's all v fluid"

Click top tweet 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Perhaps we will get a second phase of cold

The mean looks pretty good as we approach day 7

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

 

certainly a bit of a nip in the air there

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Clearly chaos rules post T+120, no sense worrying about the exposition suffix after that. Comparing models at one timestamp won't necessarily show that - it's all about the trends, 'bout the trends, no trouble...

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To me the is the classic cold spell from the north west. IT will happen, but dont be surprised to see a number of mild sectors all wanting in on the party before a Mid atlantic block or GH shuts the doors to the atlantic.

Happens every time.

Will get to about 4 days out, and the final nail in the coffin cold front will disappear behind yet another mild sector, then another.... etc.

That element of the story i think is starting to become clearer, and TBH - is the only story worth talking about in detail.... what happens after that once the cold air arrives is really the only think with doubt about it. It could last several days - could be a short lived toppler - we just dont know.

What we do know is that the ensemble models show encouraging signs whilst the op models do a bit of a panic attack trying to figure it all out.

Plenty of encouraging signs from the longer term perspectives

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18Z throws in a bit of everything, with a brief burst of >10C uppers before a renewed cold push from the northeast.

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