I like this: warm-air advection up the west coast of Greenland all the way from the Canaries.

Am I having a *et dream

cold persisting into a lengthy spell if that verifies... Orientation of high looks just right!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Those heights over the arctic are unreal, pressure rising over Scandi too. That is some run from the ECM .

Lots of hurdles to overcome before then. I think the odds of at least getting a short cold snap are very high now, the next barrier however is shortwaves. This is an example of where it could go wrong:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Here for example a shortwave could easily interfere with the ridging in the mid Atlantic.

However I digress, keeping my feet on the ground for now but this is exciting output 

A Met dream? I believe so!

Something for everyone on the 12Z ECM, most of the UK would be white.

Amazing output tonight - ECM joins the party and some - followed in GFS deep FI by what could be a mega SSW event.  Can it get any better?   That's impressive:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

I could be wrong, but if the theme shown by the ECM is maintained and GFS remains on board, I can't see a quick return to an atlantic dominated pattern anytime soon, like the MetO spoke of in their 6-15 day update earlier.

This, to my untrained eyes I will admit, is starting to look like a more substantial change than a mere 2-3 day northerly toppler.

Well its taken about 4 weeks but it looks like the polar vortex is going to be annihilated!

Plus I'm gonna win the CET competition for this month which is a bonus! 

ECM ends setting up the greatest north easterly. Amazing run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

ECM 12z is just ridiculous 

What a run for the coldies 

More runs like ECM12z and people will start talking about 1947. Except starting 10 days earlier. 

I know I'm probably the 10th person to quote Maunder here but wow 

The 240 ECM chart is quite something isn't it. Pity it is deepest FI, but plenty of entertainment to come in the meantime in any case.

Brilliant!

I am in Copenhagen at the moment, where it is pretty cold at the moment - -4 with snow flurries today. Forecast to get milder with rain on Sunday before being plunged back into the freezer. Shall advise my wife to get some provisions in over the weekend, given the model output - I don't return to the UK until the 15th unfortunately.

Some great charts for the UK tonight (from this thread) 

Haven't looked myself yet but I doubt there will be at least a little trough over Scandi at some point. Not even a slack NW flow of sorts?! Time to find out.

PS: I know this isn't the place but can anyone say what happened to Matty H? Really bugging me, lol!!

it does not get any better than that its also very pleasing after such a mild start to winter it also shows how things can change so quickly and we have to keep that in mind always.

But I give credit to cc who said a while ago we would see some fab charts soon

It's why we live for winter model watching, for the holy grail of cold 

FI it may be, but doesn't make it any less incredible 

That almost sounded like a ramp.

I must say when that run got to 168 hours I thought it might be sinking, but the heights suddenly surged back northwards and are if anything getting even stronger by the end of the run. Astonishing output  

If you do, Q, there won't be many that will want to do anything but congratulate you with great cheer.

5 day time frame not bad and only gets better. Difficult not to get carried away. Meto have to come fully on board soon surely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

If this turns out correct, no shortwave is going to get through this!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Amazing ECM.

Although we've been in much closer situations to this in the past and it's all gone mammatus verticus. Hope though, beautiful hope.

The ECM isn't too bad I suppose.

Maybe a sleety shower in the wind in Kent if they're lucky.

😉

Hold back the iced champagne for a couple more days lol