They certainly are; right- I've seen enough. I'm off to get some supersized nappies for my bedroom in case this model trend continues another 24hours.

Only thing missing tonight is a post  from Marcus tonight and I feel quite sad about that as he would have enjoyed that run and ive missed those posts tonight

Lurking mate

PM'd you

I *so* want to jump on the train, but having been through this that many times i'll wait until T+72 when the shortwaves get modelled !

Tenas all round plus the Gillettes. 

I understand the hype, I used to be the same 10 years ago. But as our erstwhile model output commentator Gooner would say, beyond t+120 is JFF. 

Arcus, I was the same 30 years ago, but without those snazzy computerized synoptics; it wasn't quite fir-cones, seaweed and too many hawthorn berries but it wasn't far off!(ie the press and me Gran)  I found my old diaries from 1980 and 81 and the lads all had girl, school and early beer comments in. Mine are full of faded predictions and cut-outs from the IFC of the Southern Daily echo!

Not that this is a nailed on grade 1 cold spell yet (need 48

hours more or runs like tonight and MetO buy in), but the Feb 2007 was rather different. It never reached closer than +144, and there was little, if any, cross-model or inter-run consistency with major flip-flopping until it eventually disappeared.  That incident was etched into my consciousness because it was the first proper truly cold 'eye candy' of the Internet era coming after a particularly long and uneventful run of winters (for much of England at least).  

Glad to see your lurking Gooner, it's the best way! Although I do enjoy your posts and they have been missed over the past few runs.......👌

I would agree although even at +120 there is still plenty of signs for encouragement (and for things to go wrong) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif 

As chair-toppling as the longer-range charts from ECM in particular are this evening, it's the progress in the 120-144 hour range that pleases me most, for we now have agreement that the trough over the U.S. will be amplified enough to support the ridge in the mid-Atlantic without shortwaves getting in the way, which also has the effect of placing the trough right in the way of the Arctic High's attempts to link with a Canadian/Alaskan ridge for example.

That's what sets the stage for the Arctic High to Mid-Atlantic High linkup during the following days, which ECM takes to the extreme while GFS shows us that even when there's pressure from the Atlantic, such a combination is capable of holding firm for day after day as an extended ridge from the Atlantic, as cold, unstable air is drawn down across Scandinavia and Europe to help maintain a broad trough there.

Further support for the day 5-6 outcome can be found from the latest NCEP discussion:

LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED MEAN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPR LOW OVER E-CNTRL CANADA WILL ANCHOR AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER 48 WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E-CNTRL PACIFIC. BUNDLES OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO/PASS THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST.

The bold part is the key to success and is stated in no uncertain terms, despite the huge uncertainty that was referred to yesterday. That really says something about how well supported the newly emerged agreement is by the teleconnection signals, as usually such sudden changes are viewed with more skepticism.

The main question in my mind is, have we reached the peak of the model output in terms of quality? In terms of ECM's op runs, maybe (what a huge jump that model has made!), but GFS could perhaps move closer to that ECM run so there's a chance that the output could become even more exciting as the 18z and/or 00z GFS op runs roll out.

The assumption of a model peak prior to the actual event is based on the tendency to make the pattern too 'clean' at the longer range, with actual transitions tending to be more gradual. I wonder how valid that is on this occasion though, given the strong signal from the MJO in particular. Nick S. has stated on the other site that his usual skepticism is overturned by the fact that an amplified MJO in phase 7 during an El Nino year (as it is right now) has particularly strong effects on our part of the world, that being to raise heights to our N and NW.

The analogues show this well, and you can see the similarities with the 12z ECM on the Atlantic side:

What a day it has been. My sensible hat is at risk of being blown away.

I don't know about a repeat of 1947, 1963 or anything like that. However, if some of the model output should verify, I would think there must be a chance of there being a similar drop in CET from December to this month to that which occured between January and February 1983 (Jan was 6.7, nearly as mild as more recent very mild Januarys, and February was 1.7). I'm not sure but I don't think there as has been a drop in CET as big as that between from one winter month to another in the time since.

He'll drink to that.

David check out December 1986 to January 1987. A drop of 5.4C

Ah, thanks for refreshing my memory GW.

As I say, if things pan out as shown, we must be in with a chance of a similar drop this winter, especially given December's exceptional mildness.

Will be all the more remarkable if we end up with a substantially colder than average January (and maybe February too if that strat warming happens as forecast on tonight's GFS).  Was beginning to think this solar cycle 12/24 analogy was really going to be blown out of the water this winter as solar cycle 12 had a colder than average Winter at this point in the cycle - with charts like this tonight and a potential strat warming, maybe it is possible for Winter to average out slightly colder than average but it would really have to go some to undo December!

Perhaps the most enjoyable thing will be to see the CFS long range model furiously back pedal should this all come off as shown tonight 

Tonight and tomorrow's GFS will be interesting and the ECM - will we see a wobble or even better charts if that's possible?

I would go as far as to say it's going to get colder. And drier, thankfully. 

(which is pretty much as far as the Met are going with this as well!)

UK 5 days UK 6-30 days
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:
Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.

One thing I will say is keep your feet firmly on the ground until this changes.................either they are being massively cautious or they are seeing signals that it is really very brief and not hugely cold with , as they say sleet or snow showers.

Time to keep the sensible hats on. I am waiting for the thread tomorrow to be suicidle when the charts aren't as good. 

Unbelievable output today. But it's still a few days from being a confident bet

the type of weather being shown today is a 1 in 5-10 year event.

Im scared to log back in tomorrow

We need to keep our feet on the ground as usual

ECM mean at day 6 is a peach

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1442.html

But by day 10 it's actually a downgrade from yesterday with the cold uppers being pushed East. Still cold but looking dry. We need the scandi trough to push west as much as it can.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

Could be a big wobble tonight hoping Op and Control have it right.

Yes but Marcus, don't they get their signals from the models?