I'll feel more comfortable when the deep cold is progged to arrive at t+96 or earlier.. I'm concerned that low is going to "fanny about" over the UK for too long preventing the proper cold from filtering south, or meaning it goes to our west. The 00z MetO run shows this danger quite well, although we get there in the end.. 

Still, can't complain about the output today really. A monster Greenland High, and increasingly cold & wintry with snow for many. 

Last nights 18z GFS appeared to be barking up the wrong tree. We should be very happy with the NWP today. 

Could you post a link to that please? I can't see/find it for some reason.

This should do it.

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/14days.asp?zipcode=Woking&locationID=56646&lat=51.3&lon=-0.6&findtype=

Indeed, we often look at the possibility of the cold missing to the East but here we have the possibility of this Low hanging around and delaying the colder uppers.

However, a monstrous GH being shown on the various solutions and nothing to suggest that this would end in the sort of toppling that the METO are still seeing as the solution for towards the end of next week.

Looking at possible attacks from the SW - remember this is only 7 days away on ECM - this is fraught with danger with no block directly to the N or NE, a Westward correction of the overall pattern and that lets the Atlantic back in.

Mmmm. Having had a trawl through the outputs while doing my own forecast for Kent under the non de plume that is The Cloud Master - I don't seem to be any wiser for it at all what with those Channel lows being thrown into the mix next week. Will it just merely result in a continuation of further rain and wind, or will it give us a surprise snowfall event? It's going to have to be in the 850's, dewpoint and blind luck come the moment and it does look "doable" for it.
  I've seen how what looks like a cold rain event suddenly turn into a surprise blizzard event as continental air gets dragged in but invariably it usually end up as a marginal type set up. However, it's all still a good four or five days away and there's still a lot of mild clutter to get through first.

With this sort of WAA going on that can only be good news for us IMO

I'm more than happy with the output, looking for detail and any snow location at the moment is a waste of time

If any of the above verified 'if' , then the magic white stuff would be falling  

All JFF of course but a 'proper' Winter feel

I'm really not sure how you come to that conclusion? 

Sneaky ninja post again. Colder than yesterday!

Excellent ensemble mean.

Me neither! The UKMO looks excellent IMO with the Greenland block propped up by an Azores low, then NAO hugely negative and heights stretching right up to the North Pole!

I think that ridge to the south coming out of the Euro High is the concern.  It can often deflect colder air away.

But I think the LP darting in from the west will take care of that.

Yeh - this isnt 2010 - yet.

The temps im seeing look decent - but not -15*c decent.   I suppose that detail will come in time.  For now im just dead happy to see what im seeing.

Yes, it looks like the cold spell initially (the first few days of the northerly type) is nailed on. What happens after that is still a bit up in the air IMO, but there's many promising ENS members from all models, together with some not so desirable ones e.g. topplers, and even a powerful low from the azores spoiling the party on a few.

Yes, clearly the day 7 ECM low is an outlier solution now the ENS are out.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 7TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough will move NE across remaining Northern and Eastern parts becoming slow moving across NE Scotland again with strong SE winds. Behind the front a somewhat showery Westerly flow will replace the front before a new showery trough crosses East over England and Wales tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1500ft asl over NE Scotland to nearer 4000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across higher Scottish hills later today, tonight and tomorrow and extending to higher Northern English hills as well by then.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the next 4-5 days as the flow stalls across the Atlantic and ridges North. It then returns SE across Ireland later and then back east across or to the South of the UK late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows a slow change to much colder conditions across the UK with rain at times turning to snow for all higher ground at times next week and lower ground too at times. The axis of the cold moving South is shown to be slow and quite laboured as milder air from Low pressure close to the South could hold up its progress over the extreme South especially later when alternating less cold and cold periods are more likely across the UK as Low pressure tracks West to East across the UK renewing cold NW or North winds behind them.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run today with solid support for colder conditions for all of the UK next week. Low pressure remains largely in control too with Greenland High pressure too far away to exert total influence enabling some milder conditions to filter into the South at times later with a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow across the UK throughout the latter stages of the output.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure still in control of the weather next week and looks less supportive of widespread cold this morning as it dd yesterday. the problem here is the inclusion of higher pressure over Iberia which keeps a Westerly flow across Southern Britain with the coldest weather held to the NW. Nevertheless colder weather will affect the UK with rain or showers continuing and increasing amounts of snow in the North and on the highest ground of the South too at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show fronts and Low pressure across the UK gradually transferring to the East of the UK early next week opening the door to a slow change to colder weather with rain at times turning to snow especially in the North but more slowly in the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK more cleanly next week as Low pressure transfers away east from the UK to Northern Europe and pressure builds across the Atlantic. The resultant Northerly flow would bring wintry showers of sleet and snow and widespread frosts at night with High pressure close by to the west by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows colder air too slipping down across the UK next week but not as a result of a Greenland High but slow moving cold pools of Low pressure which remain in situ across the UK next week maintaining unsettled conditions with rain and snow at times, with the snow at times in the hills almost everywhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows a very messy journey towards cold weather too next week as Low pressure transfers some of it's energy away to the East but maintains a lot of troughing across the UK keeping unsettled conditions going with rain, sleet and snow almost anywhere at times next week and into next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is a good one for cold lovers today as it looks favoured for Northerly winds across the UK with High pressure to the West and NW. With a Jet stream averaging at a point between members to the South and SW of the UK the most likely weather type has to be cold weather with wintry showers especially in the North and East..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to favour cold weather developing from next week with a more realistic approach to how things are likely to turn out next week than was shown last night.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 62.8 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 47.8 pts to 45.3 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a much colder regime across the UK from what we have endured of late although I'm sure folks reading this and having seen last nights output will be unsatisfied with what's on offer this morning. Nevertheless, there is solid support for colder air to replace the average temperatures across the UK currently and the general pattern in the next few weeks is thousands of miles from the pattern we had in December. We still have another 4-5 days of deep Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK with the continued mix of rain and strong winds at times for all. The air is already cold enough over the hills and high ground of Scotland for some snow and this theme will extend to the hills of Northern England and Wales too over the weekend. Then as we move into the new working week things get far more interesting for Southerners too. The likely outcome is that part of the complex Low pressure areas across the UK will shift to the East and allow colder NW or North sourced winds to move down across the UK. The problem lies with High pressure areas. The one which develops over Greenland is almost too strong and sets up a strong North flow down the Atlantic and helps maintain Low pressure closer to the East of the UK and with some evidence of higher pressure over Spain it takes a long tome for any true cold to reach the South. All these complexities mean the UK doesn't get a clean clearance of Low pressure to the East that's needed and instead we maintain a complex trough across the UK in a lot of model output this morning. The positioning of this trough is paramount to what happens weather-wise across the UK in terms of whether it's rain or snowfall we receive but what is quite concerning to me more than anything is that we might not lose the high levels of precipitation across the UK that we so desperately need to at least offer the flood stricken parts of the UK a break in the wet conditions. So despite this negativity I'm sure the message today is still one of colder weather with rather cold or cold conditions likely for all from early next week for the foreseeable future. Some snowfall is inevitable probably for most at some point but whether it will be enough to satisfy the needs of snow lovers remains to be solved by the models in the coming days. However, the synoptics are right to bring cold to the UK for the next few weeks and although we may have to be patient down here in the South I still feel with time we remain in the best synoptic set-up for cold in the UK next week and I expect a lot more changes in the output up and down in the coming days and in the lead up to next week. I'll be back tomorrow to report on how things have developed and transpired by then.

Next Update on Friday January 7th 2016 at 09:00 approx

Why is the Met Office update crucial? Yes if you want a prolonged cold spell, it would be good to have onside but it didn't pick up much prospects until the 4th, if you read the 3rd, it was still indicating zonality.

So are the Met Office updates that reliable? 

Well 'press release' may sound a bit pompous these days but what I would say is I'm not confident enough to speak to journalists about a 'big freeze' next week. In 2009 and 2010 I was ok to discuss 7 to 10 days ahead and it paid off nicely. Others of course may disagree with my view on the next 10 days and I don't claim to be in charge of the crystal ball.

Yes I think the a cold snap is a certainty. The key to the cold spells longevity is the high over Europe linking with the high over Greenland, if this does not occur then the Azores low will push over the top and the cold will remain out west. That is the concern at the moment.

If a cold shot goes too far west we could end up with something similar to this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951111.gif

Which is a possibility with the UKMO at T+144, despite an extreme -NAO this was a very mild month.

Given pressure has been stubbornly high over Europe this winter and the N Atlantic cold, it can't be ruled out but a lot of members are still showing very cold solutions, so a long way to go in this yet.

And a few members mentioned this yesterday but it was during the middle of February 2009 were 20 out of the 21 GFS members all agreed on a long persisting cold spell in the middle of the month at 48 hours and it didn't materialise, so I'm keeping my feet grounded.

There are lots of things to be encouraged by though.

• The AO is destined to plummet.


• Even if pressure rises over Europe and encourages the Azores low to move NW cold air could still follow in its wake, such a scenario would probably just delay the cold spell.

All to play for at the moment.

It's surprising given what we are seeing that a return to westerlies is STILL  favoured in 7 days time; they have to have access to something that is still showing the possibility/likelihood of a quick toppling.