The GFS 6z is out to t198 and it looks like the Greenland High is being pushed further East under the influence of a much stronger low pressure system on the Eastern seaboards of the US:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=0

It could work to our advantage though, as it looks like the winds are going to be more NE than N from a bitter air source over Scandi.

That would be cold enough for snow on my birthday, haven't seen it since 1987 for sure.

Reasonably tame yes, but it's not about the northerly really, it's about what leads to in terms of a longer term pattern. Between 168-210 you have frontal and convective snow potential, so if this is your mild run I can only think how insane your cold run would be! 

What's also interesting is how, despite changes in the setup run to run, each one (or most of them) appear set on sustaining the cold deep into FI. I'm not saying it's nailed on, but when you start to see an 'all routes lead to cold' scenario, that says to me that somrthing is brewing. Easterly flavor on this one would suit me down to the ground! 

Having said that, the easterly would probably be quite dry given the pressure, but these are details not worth going into at this point 

Isn't it always like this for cold spells? I expect the next thing to be moderated will be the duration.

Cold air flooding in

Not sure that the depth of cold is being moderated!

into FI - yes - the cold finally arrives proper.

But the last few runs have had the cold seemingly reluctant to arrive to the UK.  we seem to get it in drips and drabs, rather than a big introduction.

This also ties in with Meto commentry in that - the models arent really handling when it will arrive proper.  So i suspect the models are just being shy to reflect that.

I suspect that - probably by the weekend we will have a view in the charts of a  defined front introducing the first wave of -4 to -5*c air.. followed by a more garunteed snow risk front a day or so later.  As is usually the case.

A bitterly cold 06z, great run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2341.gif

GFS sticking to its guns

The key time period to watch for this cold spell is t+108 - t+132. It all depends on whether the low to the South of the Azores is stationary. If it is any anticyclone trying to form over Southern Europe will link with the Greenland high.

The GFS 06Z shows this scenario playing out and once again its a cold run.

The above chart would provide very cold minima.

06z GFS is an epic run....

BUT

It doesn't actually get cold enough for snow until about T+126.. we really need that timeframe to reduce over the next few runs as a lot can go wrong at that range. That complex trough could really prove to be a pain in the backside. It's sticking to the UK like a limpet!

thats more like it

Love this re-load NOT!! How many times have we heard re-load only for to become a complete breakdown No re-loads please, just a continuation of the cold theme please.

Horrible...   cold and wet.

Just for fun at 276 hours... sorry folks in Lyme Regis, you have annoyed the weather gods! 

Very complex situation from the models that's for sure.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160107/06/276/prectypeuktopo.png

Completely agree with this... 😕

All of the cold is also over a week away... Far to far away to be taken remotely serious.