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Whiteout
07 January 2016 16:23:01

UKMO coming out in instalments for some reason, but LP is further east than GFS at T+96:
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010712/UW96-21.GIF?07-17

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


yep, liking that. GFS showing what I just referred to, LP to the SW engaging with the cold air  another good run.


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Phil G
07 January 2016 16:23:23
Barely above freezing away from the coast next Thursday. Chance of prolonged snow in the Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1684.gif 
Darren S
07 January 2016 16:24:53


Also for those in the Thames Valley, remember that streamer a few years back that ground the SE to a halt?


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


I think you're thinking of the event in February 2009 when Bren got over a foot of snow in Weybridge. That event, and others like it in the past, seem to occur with a perfect setup with cold air blowing over the North Sea from an ENE direction, and tends to affect London south of the Thames and then into Surrey. On that occasion here 5 miles south of the Thames, we had only 8 cm, and just a few miles further north there was less.


On that occasion I polled TWO members and UKWW members for their snow depths, and built up a map of the country that you can see here:


http://two.dazsmith.co.uk/snow/


Zoomed in on the South East of England looked like this:



Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Phil G
07 January 2016 16:28:13
Moderate frost in places Friday morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.gif 

Russwirral
07 January 2016 16:28:46
Like i said earlier in the week - this has a northerly behind a northerly feel about it. That first wave just doesnt look that potent, and its getting less potent on each run.

This will end up being a two phased delivery. With Widespread snow showers coming in the second wave. This may present a situation whereby alot of people will initially wonder what the fuss is all about.
Whiteout
07 January 2016 16:29:19


 


I think you're thinking of the event in February 2009 when Bren got over a foot of snow in Weybridge. That event, and others like it in the past, seem to occur with a perfect setup with cold air blowing over the North Sea from an ENE direction, and tends to affect London south of the Thames and then into Surrey. On that occasion here 5 miles south of the Thames, we had only 8 cm, and just a few miles further north there was less.


On that occasion I polled TWO members and UKWW members for their snow depths, and built up a map of the country that you can see here:


http://two.dazsmith.co.uk/snow/


Zoomed in on the South East of England looked like this:



Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


That's the one Darren, thanks, can't believe it was that long ago.


Back to the models and a great UKMO tonight.


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
eddied
07 January 2016 16:30:48


 


I think you're thinking of the event in February 2009 when Bren got over a foot of snow in Weybridge. That event, and others like it in the past, seem to occur with a perfect setup with cold air blowing over the North Sea from an ENE direction, and tends to affect London south of the Thames and then into Surrey. On that occasion here 5 miles south of the Thames, we had only 8 cm, and just a few miles further north there was less.


On that occasion I polled TWO members and UKWW members for their snow depths, and built up a map of the country that you can see here:


http://two.dazsmith.co.uk/snow/


Zoomed in on the South East of England looked like this:



Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


I can add to that with a whopping 42cm, at Walton on the Hill in Surrey (180m ASL) (I've a ruler photo somewhere) and from memory, a 31cm just outside Reigate in Surrey (120m ASL). Fits with that pattern once altitude taken into account.


It is absolutely the dream setup in this part of the world. Unfortunately I lived in Tooting at the time and had to make do with 'only' 20cm


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Phil G
07 January 2016 16:30:49
Ice day in some areas next Friday, even down here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif 

Polar Low
07 January 2016 16:32:13

Very nice run thus far


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


 


 


edit


super thats ok


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021


 


 


UKMO coming out in instalments for some reason, but LP is further east than GFS at T+96:


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016010712/UW96-21.GIF?07-17

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Gandalf The White
07 January 2016 16:33:53

UKMO at T+144 looks very promising for fairly widespread snow



For the Home Counties that's 500-1,000 hPa values around 520-522 and 850s around -7C


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Robertski
07 January 2016 16:35:46

Ice day in some areas next Friday, even down here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Looks like freezing over the snow fields of central southern England tongue-out

Polar Low
07 January 2016 16:36:57
Phil G
07 January 2016 16:37:23
Looks like the Atlantic has found its way in, and pressure suddenly higher to the south. Quite what will happen from here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif 


Gandalf The White
07 January 2016 16:38:18

The evolution beyond T+192 has a bit of last night's 18z about it. The LP in the Azores region, which last night pushed WAA over Biscay and cut off the cold feed, is now drawn into the southern arm of the jet and once again pushing the milder air slowly NE. 


With cold air coming south it could be the set up for a major battleground event, but the push of milder air might mean rain for the south - at least as this is evolving.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


AirbusBod
07 January 2016 16:39:23


 


 


I can add to that with a whopping 42cm, at Walton on the Hill in Surrey (180m ASL) (I've a ruler photo somewhere) and from memory, a 31cm just outside Reigate in Surrey (120m ASL). Fits with that pattern once altitude taken into account.


It is absolutely the dream setup in this part of the world. Unfortunately I lived in Tooting at the time and had to make do with 'only' 20cm


Originally Posted by: eddied 


 


I also remember that far too well. a poultry inch of snow between Reading and Oxford and all the while hearing of the carnage further East. Would be nice if this year made up for it although I'm still getting a bit nervous at the temps coming out of the BBC weather and Two sites. Not quite matching the cold Northerly's just yet.5 deg max/ 0 min from 12-16th each day. Fingers crossed though.

Russwirral
07 January 2016 16:41:08
this is leading to massive cyclogenisis - and that winter storm that popped up before. could spoilt the party for some, but could also produce a lifetime best snowfall for alot of people...

gets popcorn.... clicks f5...clicks f5..clicks f5
Rob K
07 January 2016 16:41:48

Slightly odd 12Z. Massive GH, but renewed Euro high and the UK sat right in the middle.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif


A proper cut-off high over Greenland by this stage...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2016 16:41:55

LOVE the 12z MetO run.


12z GFS is great too, albeit with the block more closely restricted to Greenland rather than across Mid Atlantic.. Some epic snow potential towards FI no doubt.


I also hope that the GFS is overplaying that annoying low for early next week.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

kmoorman
07 January 2016 16:43:00


 


Looks like freezing over the snow fields of central southern England tongue-out


Originally Posted by: Robertski 


 


I don't like this run at all, the cold never really makes it to the south coast before our Azores High arrives.


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Shropshire
07 January 2016 16:44:33


 


 


I don't like this run at all, the cold never really makes it to the south coast before our Azores High arrives.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


The whole thing is a bit worrying for the South of England if you are following the GFS.


 


Great battle leading up to day 10, with the Atlantic losing.


 


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2016 16:44:46

Another big snow event for the Midlands to end the GFS high res. Major battleground event


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Phil G
07 January 2016 16:45:31
Quantum
07 January 2016 16:45:50

Wow, if we can get some serious snow in Scotland before this, I think we have a shot at breaking a record low here:


Netweather GFS Image


Ridiculously cold temperatures under that col in highland scotland.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
07 January 2016 16:46:27
aannnnd the atlantic springs back into life.

Not sure if i buy it - given the output and longer term modelling. plus commentry from the likes of the MET. wouldnt be surprised to see a green line take off on the ensembles tonight with a lot of other members staying low.

Partlal outlier in my books i think this.

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