The old adage of get the cold in first then the snow will come. Well lets bloody hope so because  it looks dry up here with shades of that awful winter/spring of 2013 IMBY. Other than that concerns regarding the UKMO with heights over Greenland not looking as robust, still lots to be resolved yet and the only certain aspect of all this, is that it's going to get colder next week.

I know it's bad form to get all IMBY in here, but GGGRRRRRR! 

GFS much less amplified in the mid-high Atlantic than UKMO - for that reason the latter is actually the better run for sustained cold, especially for those south of the M4 for whom GFS actually has above average upper air temps in most of FI. Having said that, the result of a more messy picture ironically means that for those north of the M4 (especially in the Midlands), the run is much better for snowfall as successive frontal storms produce several dumpings. All in all it depends on where you live for how you interpret the run - for a change it will be as worth looking at the precip ens as the air temps, not to assess the exact nature of snowfall, but to see how many follow the route of a messyish picture vs a clean HLB like that promoted by the UKMO and GEM. On that basis ECM will be very significant indeed. 

Late Low Res and early to mid FI produce 3 major snowfalls for some - 2 for the midlands and the last one a huge one for the North Midlands. All looks very messy though. Over to ens - surely a mild outlier for the south? UKMO and GEM would suggest so...

GFS is insanely snowy for some.

The details keep changing but the models keep churning out mammoth battleground blizzards. You have to wonder... we haven't had one of those for a while.

this is interesting, and could point at this cold outbreak being similar to 2010 in terms of snowyness. As troublesome as that Azores Low is for some peeps, it provides a stead drip of moiture to our side of the block. Meanwhile re-inforcing the block all the while.

Most times we get cold outbreaks - the snowyness last for a day or two before the moisture is used up - and then we have a snowy breakdown as the atlantic joins in again and back to mild.

This actually looks to inject a bit of moisture back into our side of the block and sustains the setup in play for a bit longer.

Could it be more pferfect than that?

Then 48 hours later it's a repeat performance a bit further north... one of the snowiest runs in TWO history this.

I'm in the same 'boat' as you on this.  I still don't think the lack of southerly penetration of the cold air is going to be shown across all models and the ensemble.   I bl**dy well hope not, anyway 

long term cold from gm with a little energy in the channel what a run

Could be some flooding problems to the south though.  All the tears.

Quite. Very messy at times and by no means straightforward - almost looks like a perpetual breakdown being played out over several incredible days - but easily one of the snowiest runs I've seen in years. 

Can I bank that one please even more insane snow on the 19th one of the snowiest runs I've ever seen.

Yes combined with another 50mm of rain on top of the 20cm of snow 48 hours earlier. Would certainly be quite a spell of weather!

A sweet spot in the South Midlands would pick up at least 50cm of snow combined from those two lows... well we can dream...

Did you ask for skates for xmas Michael 

quote=doctormog;751878]From a northern perspective, just the one comment. Brrrrr.

There will be some serious frozen "lakes" around given the ongoing/worsening flooding.