Most definitely yes.  It will be very interesting to see how they treat the ridge, and the associated Azores low.

Yeah, I know but I think based on the runs so far things should be OK as long as nothing shifts further north. Fingers crossed for a good ECM 12z run.

Although to be honest I would settle for anything as long as it is drier. 

The GEFS12z don't seem a 'downgrade' at a glance. Snowrow is the highest its been for London.

I will feel better IF the ECM is more like the UKMO than the GFS Op or Control 

True, although there are a few niggling runs that barely get the cold going at all (although that turquoise one, P7, dips down and goes cold later)...

Why is that ???

Oh, they're quite a big downgrade from the 6z for London at least. The top chart is the 12z, the bottom the 6z.

Points of note:

• Higher median (and mean, but that's less useful)


• Far more scatter in the latter stages


• Milder runs start at 168 at 12z, rather than 240.

I think people are being cautious based on past events. I can imagine there were people describing pessimism during January 2005, February 2007, 2009 and December 2012 laughable.

There is no question the output is exciting but I think its best to keep our feet firmly on the ground.

The chances for a cold spell look good but a few potential hurdles to surpass first , the further north you are the better. Fingers crossed.

Winter is Over. 

 Thanks. I only glanced the 12z GEFS and didn't compare it or look in detail. 

Because the signs have been there from the start but as usual on here people in desperation ignore them. Cold that is more then a week out should always be treated with caution in the UK. Just look at the recent fail, less then 10 days ago we were (if reading this forum) due a cold snowy east to northeast spell by now..

It's the normal for extreme weather to be downgraded the closers you get to the event especially when originaly viewed from a week or further away, and this downgrading happens with all types cold, heat, snow, etc. Though less often downgraded with rain & wind, but that's because we live in mild ocean driven climate.

We rarely get more than a 5 day cold spell in southern England, so its no real surprise. We just have to manage our expectations and hope we get a second bite of the cherry later in the month or February

So South of Birmingham its not going to get cold ???? which is what the post I replied to  implies.........interesting that .

I'm not sure where you get that from, the easterly option was persistently shown but always at a very low chance - it did get as high as 25% at one stage, but was generally 10 to 15%. That's nowhere near enough to even begin getting excited and as far as I recall nobody did.

This time around it's the entirely typical post-97 situation whereby for most of us it's actually quite marginal. The models wax and wane, then from time to time you get a run which has large amounts of flipping even in the ensembles. The 12z GEFS isn't close to the worst flips (they have been known to happen even as close as 48 hours), but it's a good example of how a rock-solid cold spell (from 168 to 240 on the 6z) can be frittered away.

Sometimes it's the beginning of the end (as in 2009), other times it's just one of many wobbles (2010).

Time will tell in this case, but sufffice to say I've been rather cautious this time round, I've not talked to the local papers (as I did in 2010 to 2013 when snow was on the horizon), nor have I said much to the powers that be at work (which as it's a school is always keen to stay open).

I generally want a minimum of a full day+1 run of solid looking ensembles from ECM and GFS before I'll commit to it looking likely that a snowy spell is on the way - and that's not happened. Not yet, anyway!

It will get much colder than it's been recently, of course, but until I start seeing MOGREPS on board for say, Reading (safely away from any maritime gridpoints), I'll not get too excited.

MOGREPS can be seen here btw:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpk9yegm

Yup, that's the MetO site - it uses the MOGREPS median for the longer term bit of its forecasts, as far as I'm aware.

ECM still shaping up ok ........on a par with the UKMO

Yes - Meto showing 3 degrees celsius, rain showers and a WSW breeze for next Wednesday in my home location in Worcestershire - that does not exactly fill me with thoughts of a winter wonderland.

Considering what we have had this Winter, one can't complain about what is on offer

Considering what we have had this Winter, one can't complain about what is on offer

AGREED

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/144_mslp500.png?cb=720

The ECM 144 doesn't seem to be destroying the long high in the Atlantic.

indeed any attack from the A looks unlikely also interesting chart in -6 and 7 uppers