Thanks for clarifying.
Taking your point on, I never saw that cold spell that started appearing at Xmas as more than a very remote possibility; at best a couple of operational runs looked very good but that was it. This time we have cross-model support and ensemble support, which is generally what we look for before getting too optimistic. Aside from that, another critical point is that the briefly-predicted cold spell that appeared in the charts at Xmas was from an easterly, which is the most problematic of them all - as many have commented.
I don't think there's any doubt about the long wave pattern for next week now, i.e. a block from the Atlantic up into the Greenland area and low pressure over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic. That gives us the thick end of a week of cold weather, I reckon. Detail is another matter - the short wave pattern will keep changing from run to run. No doubt there'll be a few Channel Lows and features popping up. There may even be a developing low sitting out west of the UK and causing complications.
As always I'd like to see where the ECM run sits in the ensembles.
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White