Yes. Yes, you a right of course. Low Pressure. Fundamental mistake. Tsk, Tsk.

Sod the JFF, keep bringing that East 

Anyway I've noticed Gusty is back so that's put the mockers on it, ever since KWS my Snow has never been the same 

Difficult to interpret the changes going on with the various models. GEFS seems to be offering 5 day cold spell from 120h to 240h.However uppers look less severe than earlier runs around 0 to -4. What the implications are for snow I'm not sure but GFS op has substantial  snow fall on 17th and 19th of Jan.

Good to see the cold set up even if its short.

Will be watching for 96h and 120h faxes later this evening.

To be fair Andy wasn't the only one writing off the rest of the winter in terms of cold; I can recall at least two or three others doing likewise both before Xmas and then between Xmas & New Year. Some even went for a re-run of the disaster that was winter 2013/14.

Even though the models didn't look at all good for cold until Christmas was virtually upon us, the MetO said both in late November and then again last week that the later part of the winter may well be somewhat different to what December produced. Had the MetO altered their thoughts between late November and late December, I too may have been more inclined to be doubtful about the chances of any major change.

KWS..Killed Winter Snow 

18z starting to roll out . 

Until I see something  a bit more inspiring on the Met updates I dare not spread the word , it's as though I am waiting for them to give the thumbs up

The 18z has gone from being the pub-run to being the worst run these days. Out to t66 and it already looks worse than the 12z, with a weaker Greenie HP building and the UK LP further north. Reckon it will be a repeat of last nights 18z downer.

Except shunting the low pressure east would merely guarantee that inland areas just see blue skies.

We need low pressure in the mix, whatever the risks that brings.

It would just be nice to see the persistence of the Greenland High throughout and the trend to increase the depth of that cold pool over Scandinavia. With these two factors in place FI should be very wintry.

Without drawing too many similarities with 2010 it took a few days for the real cold uppers to arrive (26/27th) after the initial sub -5c 850Hpa arrived around the 22/23rd November.

I also remember a lot of concerns regarding the lack of depth of cold showing in those 2010 charts initially. Slowly but surely the models reduced them as they got to grips with the degree of CAA spilling out of the Arctic.

very good points Steve. 

It would just be really reassuring to have that trigger low moving out of the way and introducing cold uppers within about t+96 so we can relax a bit :-) 

18z looks fine so far, general theme is maintained. 

96h fax chart

Looks like the door is being shut on the GH ????

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

The block looks a bit stronger on this run at least, will it hold, to bring down the colder air from the Arctic?

Compared with the 12z, there's less ridging over Europe which is good news. 

Greenland High looks ever so slightly weaker though. 

120h Fax

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.gif

SLP greater then 1030mb over Spain though...

And quite a bit earlier

There is the LP to the SW , think I will wait for the ENS to come out

Yup the SLP pattern to our SW varies on the GFS with every run in contrast to UKMO and ECM which have been consistent (with the operationals at least anyway). Is it onto something? or is the GFS again handling an area of low pressure poorly. The SLP is remaining stubbornly high over Europe once more.

More uncertainty yet again it seems with regards to longevity of the cold! Although GFS has been overly progressive in the past...

FI now but I'm still not comfortable with these height rises over Spain. The cold spell in the south could be short and is probably a key factor in the Met Office's current uncertainty.