Bye Mike

Are you seeing what I'm seeing?

Haha 

You're a brave one for posting that 

Looking forward to all the twists and turns over the coming days. Hopefully Sheffield can continue its more recent trend as snow capital of England 

we cant ask for more imo but we will get bummer runs soon its the trend>120 I like as long as it gets cold i dont care

Matt on twitter has said ecm later on is crazy

Lots of twists and turns, yes. Looking pretty solid for a UK cold spell now and the runs have been fairly consistent.

Still lurking, Marcus

I take it you are the thrusting, bestial, Polar Bear in that image?

But there was never a current cold spell, was there?   As, I think, Darren pointed out earlier it was never more than a very slim chance. I remember posting on several occasions over the Xmas period that it looked to be 1,000 miles east of us.

It's always been quite difficult to get cold snowy conditions for lowland England, certainly if you're looking for more than the odd day or two.  That's why events like December 2010 stand out in the collective memory, isn't it?

Anyway, ECM sticking to the theme tonight and offering up sufficient low pressure in the mix to make snow a more likely event for some from the middle of next week.  Of course it could still be downgraded but you can only interpret what's on offer and that's another remarkably blocked run from ECM.

Maybe it'll crack 1100mb in Greenland by then 

Same for me Russ so I tried London then P1 then back to control & it came up. Any use?

No there wasn't, and that's my point.  Things are still too far off with UKMO at 144 out of kilter with GFS and ECM.

As I also said, its really positive to have a prospect of a pattern change to something colder and drier. 

I think it's a mummy bear - otherwise the cubs would have been eaten

Thanks for clarifying.

Taking your point on, I never saw that cold spell that started appearing at Xmas as more than a very remote possibility; at best a couple of operational runs looked very good but that was it.  This time we have cross-model support and ensemble support, which is generally what we look for before getting too optimistic.  Aside from that, another critical point is that the briefly-predicted cold spell that appeared in the charts at Xmas was from an easterly, which is the most problematic of them all - as many have commented.

I don't think there's any doubt about the long wave pattern for next week now, i.e. a block from the Atlantic up into the Greenland area and low pressure over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic.  That gives us the thick end of a week of cold weather, I reckon.  Detail is another matter - the short wave pattern will keep changing from run to run.  No doubt there'll be a few Channel Lows and features popping up.  There may even be a developing low sitting out west of the UK and causing complications.

As always I'd like to see where the ECM run sits in the ensembles.

Is that 1050 or 1080? If it's 1080, would that be a record? Is it possible?

I've buckled. I'm back. What a change from the output that was being thrown out on Saturday 2nd January for the 12z's ! It looks like the hint of the Greenland block only really offered from the ECM at 240hrs that evening has nearly come to pass.

I need to look closer but a pattern change to drier and colder is most welcome for most. Risk of snow at times in the north and some frosty nights down south too. 850Hpa's do not look cold enough to support snow in the south but a cheeky trough in the NW'ly flow could give a little seasonal sleet I suppose and a channel runner could provide some northern edge wintriness if the flow is slack on the northern edge.

The Greeny block appears to persist post 168 hours but that is FI and purely speculative at this stage.

What a turnaround though! 

Odd, it's only showing as 1060mb on the Meteociel chart?

You can check out but you can never leave....

Welcome back.  Good timing, methinks.

Cheers Gandalf..this place is like the Hotel California 

Oh crap. Watch the models turn mild now 

It's 1080. And it's basically meaningless as it is the charts trying to work out the pressure of air that doesn't exist. The Greenland plateau is over 2,000 metres high so the actual pressure there will be much lower. The charts are extrapolating back down to SLP.

 What a nice surprise, seeing you back.

It's such a lovely place this thread. Great outputs overall these past few days, Steve. Some charts to remember, some charts to forget 

I'm not quoting anymore