The ensemble mean from the 18z doesn't seem to show much support for the operational evolution.  Here at T+192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Got to say lads I have a bad feeling about all this, with so much uncertainty it can so easily go wrong. The UK upper through is slow to move east and with very cold air being driven south into the Central Atlantic cyclonegenisis could be reignited.

Those of us who have been around since the early days of TWO have been here many times before and the outcome is usually the same. I don't want to sound like a mild ramper I love the cold and snow more than most but I think we need to manage our expectations, the guys in Exeter are not going to be issuing any snow warnings anytime soon.

It's going to be a long weekend.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Isn't that the 12z ?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Still a decent block from the control

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Head scratching again tonight , I see over on NW the GFS has been totally binned

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Rightly so IMO as its churned out every different kind of scenario possible during the last 48 hours. I'll go with the Euros and the chief forecaster at the MetO before the GFS.  

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

GEFS 18z almost a repeat of last night with half the runs showing a westerly or southerly influence mid run, largely before any major cold gets into the English Channel. 🇬🇬 No immediate cause for concern with a relatively solid ECM and much better runs earlier in the day from GFS. Once again tomorrow's 0z takes on additional significance! 😀

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

GEFS 18z almost a repeat of last night with half the runs showing a westerly or southerly influence mid run, largely before any major cold gets into the English Channel. 🇬🇬 No immediate cause for concern with a relatively solid ECM and much better runs earlier in the day from GFS. Once again tomorrow's 0z takes on additional significance! 😀

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

00z GFS has us under strong SW'lys buy day 9.
UKMO a bit better.

Yuk

Originally Posted by: John p 

Yup, all caused by the Greenland blocking backing too far west - what some would call a west-based NAO.

This chart says it all really - a large Greenland High, a strongly negative NAO... SW'lies for much of the UK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

After last night's 18z, the 0z this morning is just more of the same. We saw with the 12z last night that the ensembles were starting to swing against cold down here, with the 18z continuing the trend (while ECM remained firm). Will the process continue with GEFS this morning? Will ECM also start to wobble? Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment of "chase that northerly!"

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yup, all caused by the Greenland blocking backing too far west - what some would call a west-based NAO.

This chart says it all really - a large Greenland High, a strongly negative NAO... SW'lies for much of the UK!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

After last night's 18z, the 0z this morning is just more of the same. We saw with the 12z last night that the ensembles were starting to swing against cold down here, with the 18z continuing the trend (while ECM remained firm). Will the process continue with GEFS this morning? Will ECM also start to wobble? Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment of "chase that northerly!"

Originally Posted by: Retron 

If ECM backs up GFS later I think the best we can expect down here is a week of wintry showers / cold rain with frosty nights as the air is just not cold enough.  Most frustrating with all the background signals in place and a Greenland high as Darren notes, in less than a few days we have gone from solid -8 uppers most of next week to barely -4 if that for a small part of next week down here.  Let's see if post ECM GFS puts the final nail in the coffin later (assuming ECM goes the way of GFS), which seems at the moment to have GEM backing it from the bits of the run I can see. Back to 10hpa northern hemisphere watching for me soon I suspect!

On the plus side looks like some good possible snow events for the north midlands northwards at times though next week on this mornings GFS if I am reading that correctly.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

If ECM backs up GFS later I think the best we can expect down here is a week of wintry showers / cold rain with frosty nights as the air is just not cold enough.  Most frustrating with all the background signals in place and a Greenland high as Darren notes, in less than a few days we have gone from solid -8 uppers most of next week to barely -4 if that for a small part of next week down here.  Let's see if post ECM GFS puts the final nail in the coffin later (assuming ECM goes the way of GFS), which seems at the moment to have GEM backing it from the bits of the run I can see. Back to 10hpa northern hemisphere watching for me soon I suspect!

On the plus side looks like some good possible snow events for the north midlands northwards at times though next week on this mornings GFS if I am reading that correctly.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Best to keep expectations limited to 120. Operationals have backed off any significant cold further this morning especially for the S beyond 144 from GEM and GFS.

UKMO is again very different and ECM will be ...interesting?

As long as it dries out a bit and cools down I will be happy. 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

GFS operational and control mild outliers in FI. Interesting.

Highlights the big uncertainty so yes FI is as it should be at T120 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust