Yes a disconnect of heights in the Atlantic, pressure rise over Iberia and the Azores Low is through the gap. Not often the 18z bucks the trend and is then supported by the both the 0z GFS and ECM 0z; but that's how it goes for us in the UK. Look at the worst possible option and that is what comes to fruition. Still time for changes and colder options will remain in the ensemble mix; but for those of us with experience, once this has happened it's usually curtains.

Bloody typical.  

The 0z ECM is great for those "up north" though - that low which would bring gales and a deluge of rain down here would plaster areas further north with snow - say from the Midlands north. A ridge then builds in which would bring a frost for us and doubtless some really cold minima over the snowfields further north.

Ironically despite the rubbish synoptics for down here it's going to be one of the colder runs in the ensembles, I'd wager, with just a spike in temperatures on days 8 and 9.

For me the disappointing thing is the delay in the initial cold air which for the last few days has remained at the 120-144 hr time frame. Always a bad omen when it comes to getting a cold spell as everyday it remains at that time frame there is a big risk that the next run will show something different due to the unreliability of the models at that range.

As for the longer range, next weekend and beyond who knows. There seems to be a good chance it will get milder as per Met Office and some charts but equally it could be cold. Amazing charts with ensemble support tonight will not resolve this , nor will terrible ones.

Yes that's the run at face value though with no block to the North or North East, the track of the Low has to be right to deliver such a snow event and it will almost certainly be different to what is shown today. The GFS has it much further West hence the Atlantic sweeping North.

It did seem to me that the bbc weather ahead last night was a bit odd did not really want to talk  much about extended cold or snow perhaps the extra data they have means much more.

As Marcus said until those sort of words are used in met updates we should expect it wont sadly happen

Typical, today the option of more flooding and this time in new areas rather than a more settled sprinkling of cheer. Rotten .

So the pendulum swings again. I wouldn't worry too much, but the higher heights over Spain look to throw a spanner in the works later next week. More runs needed, but it does have a feeling of an anticlimax climb down

Over on NW they're pinning the change to a marked west-based NAO on that little storm.

Given that it was already a somewhat uncertain situation, adding a potential tropical storm into the mix will just add further uncertainties!

I'd gladly swap and in doing so help alleviate the UK flood issues by taking your LP and you having my HP! Personally, bored as hell with this dry/very cold weather up here.

Though a wobble in the output this morning for the UK, the GEFS still shows some great UK options - despite the now clear breakaway cluster in less cold options. Further changes WILL happen and so not all is lost. As it stands, it is looking good for the N of England and Scotland. Higher parts (especially) could be very white very soon. Worst case scenario and live in the S? Take a snow-hunt trip to the N! Pull a sickie or whatever... just do it and have fun!!

That may or may not be right but the truth is the UKM have been very reluctant about the potency and longevity of the potential cold spell. A lot of people have been rubbishing their forecasts on Twitter and FB but their caution looks well justified this morning.

The tried and tested rule of insisting on cross-model agreement at 96hrs still stands, and anyone feeling despondent this morning should remember that. This morning's GFS solution for Tuesday has just as much chance of being wrong as its solution for this Saturday was four days ago (sorry not very well explained).

In essence, I wouldn't assume anything. The energy from the SW is proving very difficult to model.

Well didn't see that coming what a flip overnight kudos to GFS IF it's picked up the pattern change first. Still a chance of a major snow event next week though so all is not lost yet. Is this as bad as it gets or will there be further downgrades. Who knows?

quite. 

I did think it was notable that the word 'cold' was not mentioned at all on the flagship 10.30pm BBC weather forecast last night.. Only "the chance of drier weather next week" 

Very disappointing output today. Stressful business this 😃! 

That said, if ECM verifies, it'll probably snow here next week. Wednesday night. 

Like many others on here, I've watched these models more years than I can remember. Two key things I've learnt over that time:

1. Although the GFS model can be erratic at times, it is often very good at picking up new signals. The last 2 18zs clearly picked up the signal for rising heights over Iberia and the Azores low steaming towards us. Not consistent with it's runs in between certainly but the possibility was there in the 18zs and the split in ENS last night was significant.

2. Once the models backtrack on an extended cold outlook over the UK, it's not very often that that they flip back again.

I still think there a lot of uncertainty at the moment though so lets see what today's runs bring.

A lot of nonsense being spouted here. The 00Z ensembles are really not that different. The op is just one of the mild options is all. There remains a solid cold cluster, just that it's now more of a 50/50 split than before. 

We are no closer to seeing the reality of what happens than we were before. A lot of people seem to assume that cold charts can change at 240 hours but mild charts can't :)

It does Brian but will the caution be right for the right reason ? If it ends the way the GFS/ECM shows with a complex Azores Low development and the METO have been able to see this possibility for several days then that's a tremendous call from the data they have available to them.

The GFS OP is quicker than nearly all other ensemble members to bring back the Atlantic.

The GFS op is quicker to bring in westerlies than even the Met forecast. The text forecast talks about cold even reaching the south, and westerlies only becoming established towards the end of the period. They seem to be seeing something less progressive than the GFS op at least. 

[quote=Brian Gaze;752321]

That may or may not be right but the truth is the UKM have been very reluctant about the potency and longevity of the potential cold spell. A lot of people have been rubbishing their forecasts on Twitter and FB but their caution looks well justified this morning.

[/quote

Absolutely Brian and thats why I and a few others have been so cautious, the guys in Exeter might be a bit bone headed when it comes to GW but their short and medium range forecasts are second to none.

I was getting a lot of stick on here last night about my post Christmas pessimism about the prospects for January but I would still put my money on a average to mild January with little snow in the south.

The ElNino is just too strong to support the kind of NH pattern that ECM was alluding too last night, pressure will rise again over Southern Europe soon and our cold spell will be resigned to the model output archive marked 'if only'.

Andy

PS Helen Willets does more than hint at a return of windy and unsettled weather later next week.