Agreed

He was wrong the entire time. Cold spell or not, his sensationalist tripe of 'worst winter in 50 years' and countrywide blizzards was never supported because he gets his information from his f buddy James Madden 

It is far from curtains on this cold spell though 

Just done some very brief research looking for a good omen...

The last time a subtropical system spawned in the middle of January in the Atlantic was back in 1978 😊 note key word 'spawned'

Apparently that winter kicked off pretty well mid January and lasted through into February.

Again this was just brief research... And just for fun 😋

Some VERY low temps out East

I would have thought UKMO would go the same way as GFS, the high seems to be retreating to Canada

I've already given this one up.

JMA is good.  We just need the low to concentrate on holding itself together a getting away SE sharpish.

I think you had even when the stellar output was churning

Yes, the GEM evolution is interesting, particularly when you compare it and the UKMO one with GFS.

GEM develops a LP system in the upper mid-west and deepens it rapidly as it hits the ocean off the eastern seaboard - but then the energy hits the block and most of it is forced north with just a tiny part spinning south under the block.

The UKMO evolution is harder to read because of the 24 hour steps but attempts something not too dissimilar.

GFS, in marked contrast, doesn't generate any WAA from the LP exiting the eastern seaboard and thereafter there is nothing to stop the jetstream coming east.

So, as early as Day 5 to Day 6 there are significant differences in the handling of the block and the next bout of energy coming out of the US.  Until the modelling of that is tied down the subsequent evolution is up in the air.

ECM will be interesting..... again......

Yep JMA is the model

Between T+120 and T+144 the high over Greenland doesn't move on UKMO?

I agree to an extent although the volatility must be partly due to the fact that there are 4 runs per day. If ecm produced 4 a day we would likely see it chopping and changing more as well.