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Maunder Minimum
08 January 2016 16:03:34


 


And tissues if it's a good one.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Seems to be going the same way as the previous run - pressure building the wrong way into Spain.

New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
08 January 2016 16:10:04

The +0 chart looks wrong, bin this run.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Try hitting refresh.....


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
08 January 2016 16:11:06


 


Winter is over unless I get this 



 


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Don't think it's going to be raining cats (or dogs) I'm afraid....


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Russwirral
08 January 2016 16:14:16
That Icelanding Low looks a bit troublesome on this run.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
08 January 2016 16:18:08

The Greenland blocking buggers off to Baffin even quicker on this run.


Still we're down to a teeth-chattering max of 6C in the south by Friday, before the mild air comes back in 


Hey ho...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
08 January 2016 16:18:43

Sorry guys - our joy has been taken away from us and the computer says no! What a p1sser!


Luckily I have a couple of good bottles of wine to enjoy this evening.

New world order coming.
some faraway beach
08 January 2016 16:18:56

That Icelanding Low looks a bit troublesome on this run.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Do I not like the way that's nosing between the Greenland and Atlantic highs. Wasn't there on the 6z.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0


 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
SEMerc
08 January 2016 16:20:33

All we need now is for that UK high (at T+162) to slide over to Berne and we can get the razor blades out.

Rob K
08 January 2016 16:20:35
At T162 the temperature finally drops below zero IMBY for the first time since New Year's Day... hurrah!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
08 January 2016 16:21:09
A different kind of breakdown but a breakdown is coming on this run nonetheless. The ridge has just collapsed.
GGTTH
Essan
08 January 2016 16:22:58


Sorry guys - our joy has been taken away from us and the computer says no! What a p1sser!


Luckily I have a couple of good bottles of wine to enjoy this evening.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



Sorry, the Govt have decreed that you may only drink one (small) glass per day

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Rob K
08 January 2016 16:25:14
By my reckoning on this run we only get sub -5C air down here for 42 hours. That's down from about 9 days progged this time yesterday....
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
08 January 2016 16:25:51

A different kind of breakdown but a breakdown is coming on this run nonetheless. The ridge has just collapsed.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


It depends on which model you want to believe.


UKMO at T+144 looks very different to GFS:




If GFS has it wrong at T+144 then the subsequent evolution is irrelevant - but I'll still watch it roll out for entertainment value.


Aside from that I'm not sure GFS is so bad - the high may be nudging in by T+162 but it's still Arctic air over the country.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


JACKO4EVER
08 January 2016 16:26:28

By my reckoning on this run we only get sub -5C air down here for 42 hours. That's down from about 9 days progged this time yesterday....

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


at this rate Rob by tomorrow's runs it won't make it at all. 


Well well well, what a collapse. Flooding may well be an issue again for some folk.
I'm of to the pub.

Maunder Minimum
08 January 2016 16:28:59


 


It depends on which model you want to believe.


UKMO at T+144 looks very different to GFS:




If GFS has it wrong at T+144 then the subsequent evolution is irrelevant - but I'll still watch it roll out for entertainment value.


Aside from that I'm not sure GFS is so bad - the high may be nudging in by T+162 but it's still Arctic air over the country.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Call it wishful thinking, but the GFS 12z just does not seem credible. If this is how it urns out at t+180, I shall eat my hat:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010812/gfsnh-0-180.png?12?12


 

New world order coming.
SnowyHythe(Kent)
08 January 2016 16:29:24
Well, my two penneth worth is forget the Greenland Block...I reckon this is evolving into height rises over Scandi and an eventual attack from the East/NE..
Rob K
08 January 2016 16:29:52


 


Aside from that I'm not sure GFS is so bad - the high may be nudging in by T+162 but it's still Arctic air over the country.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Come on, it's terrible for cold - two days after the cold air arrives in the south it is blown away from the west, and 24 hours after that we have +10C air waiting just off the Irish coast.


 


But, as you say, it is totally different from the UKMO and may well be totally different from the ECM.


 


It certainly makes a change from the endless dull models of December.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
08 January 2016 16:32:04

By my reckoning on this run we only get sub -5C air down here for 42 hours. That's down from about 9 days progged this time yesterday....

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


So, not quite as good then.... 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Rob K
08 January 2016 16:33:26

Well, my two penneth worth is forget the Greenland Block...I reckon this is evolving into height rises over Scandi and an eventual attack from the East/NE..

Originally Posted by: SnowyHythe(Kent) 


 


On this run I think you are right - the signs are there by 192 of WAA into Scandi and heights rising... don't believe a word of it mind!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
08 January 2016 16:34:29


 


And tissues if it's a good one.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


 


Safe to say you can put the Kleenex away after that run, Merc.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Arcus
08 January 2016 16:35:34


 


It depends on which model you want to believe.


UKMO at T+144 looks very different to GFS:


 


 


If GFS has it wrong at T+144 then the subsequent evolution is irrelevant - but I'll still watch it roll out for entertainment value.


Aside from that I'm not sure GFS is so bad - the high may be nudging in by T+162 but it's still Arctic air over the country.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Or 12z GEM at 144 for another comparison:


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gandalf The White
08 January 2016 16:36:50

Let's lighten the gloom and focus on the UKMO run instead.  Much more potential.


UK view at T+144:



Trough approaching from the west. The airmass over the UK is around 525 dam (500-1,000 hPa thickness) with 850hPa values around -6C to -7C.  That's sleet and snow, except perhaps in coastal areas.


The Northern Hemisphere chart I posted shows there's no imminent breakdown either.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2016 16:38:01


 


and where have the metoffice said this? Links please 😊


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Have a look at any location on the Beeb website for the 17th everyone has Northerlies even SW Ireland so the Meto think the GFS is wrong.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
08 January 2016 16:38:26

GEM keeps it cold right the way out... always loved that model! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016010812/gem-0-234.png?12


 


Not sure about that 960mb Baltic bomb though...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
08 January 2016 16:39:20

The issues with starting conditions may well still be plaguing the NWP so if there's no agreement at 60 what confidence can there be at 144?


This isn't resolved yet by a long way.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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