there is a member from Kent who keeps repeating that we need to look east. Looking at the later stages of the ECM might indicate why

That is true but it would leave this thread rather obsolete! 

It's all interesting viewing.

Hilarious. Resurrection of the Beast. Now I've see it all

So what's the point of discussing them then? 

JMA a world away from ECM at 216. As plenty have already said, the models are all over the place, and understandably so at that timeframe.

ECM 12z not a bad run tbh, it keeps us under a cold feed for a while. Good for those with snow cover by then 

edit, the 240 chart isn't very inspiring, with high pressure becoming established over southern Europe. That said, it's better than the GFS as it has much better heights over Scandinavia 

Normally we'd be chuffed to bits with that

Welcome back Beast.  But you're not really here. You're like Obi Wan Kenobi at the end of Return of The Jedi. Simply a ghost, a phantom 

ive seen just about enough!!

I'm trying to soften the blow for my own sanity more than anything else 😉 

ECM 12Z: A major outlier, or maybe the start of another trend?

Looking at it from a positive point of view, it would at least provide a few days of considerably drier weather than what we've had for weeks now, which is what the flood-hit areas need more than anything else right now.

I'm sure even with a stonking scandi high and 850's like these the infamous UK cold deflector would come in to play as it entered the 120-168hr time frame.

If high pressure can nose in after 240 in what looks like a quiet Atlantic, then we might be looking at more than a few days of dry weather 

edit: Scandi high link-up? 

So, have we moved on to the next possible cold spell 😉

Not at bad run really certainly compared to the GFS if someone has the snow accumulation chart at 168h it must be significant for the southern 3rd of the UK . It then stays cold out to day 10 with perhaps an easterly setting up.

Keep an eye on the ensembles for any signs of a flip. We want more perturbations showing cold over the coming days after 16/17 Jan, which is what we initially saw with the GFS before it backtracked to favouring a milder outcome after next weekend. A flip back to cold is unlikely given that rarely ever happens once the models flip to mild, but it's not unheard of.

You can but hope 

Its O.K. There is a refuge for burned-out model watchers in Folkestone

All they've done really...is not said much!

And all the self-proclaimed experts and critics and manic depressives and fortune tellers who frequent these forums haven't said much either I suppose?

Sometimes, in situations of uncertainty, silence is the wisest option.

If anyone doesn't like reading the MO thread, or they find it irritating, annoying, misleading, infuriating etc, the simple answer is: don't read it.  If, on the other hand you enjoy discussing the output and reading the interchange of ideas and reactions, then its for you.  Simples!

Particularly when the evolution of this up-coming cold spell is nothing even remotely close to what happened in 2010.

IIRC the December 2010 cold spell was so clearly defined in the models that the Met Office was predicting a severe cold spell some time ahead.

The other thing to remember is that cross-model and ensemble support are essential to give any confidence in a pattern change but neither is any guarantee.  The ensembles are not magic pixie dust.  They only show sensitivity to the known starting point, they are incapable of detecting unanticipated changes in the atmosphere and it doesn't take very much to throw out the pattern a few days ahead - as we've seen in the last 24 hours.