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Gooner
08 January 2016 21:04:48


 


 


Bbc weather website every UK location on the 17th has Northerlies .


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yup and 3c IMBY

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


polarwind
08 January 2016 21:06:32


 


Many thanks for such a punctilious exposition 😎🤓


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
warrenb
08 January 2016 21:07:35
It may be wordy but also spot on.
Tonbridge 45m 
Arcus
08 January 2016 21:13:50
Away from the 10100101000, the Human influenced new Monday 12z Fax. Things shifted a bit further west with the 528 line held further north:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif 
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Charmhills
08 January 2016 21:14:41

Just very quick.


Game on from the EC ENS 12Z run. Wish I could share images but can't. Less spread than GFS and cold well into following wkend. We shall see


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81


Lets hope so.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Brian Gaze
08 January 2016 21:22:53


Just very quick.


Game on from the EC ENS 12Z run. Wish I could share images but can't. Less spread than GFS and cold well into following wkend. We shall see


https://twitter.com/MattHugo81


Lets hope so.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


 Ok, that and and a second look at De Bilt makes more sense now. Initially I read it as week rather than weekend. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
08 January 2016 21:38:07
Erhh Hope he is right. Usually a northerly is a 2-3 day affair and according to the latest charts and forecasts I will be lucky to see a frost in the next 5 days. Well may be just lucky if I wake up at 5am and see a bit of white frost on my car roof.
Kingston Upon Thames
nsrobins
08 January 2016 21:44:13

Away from the 10100101000, the Human influenced new Monday 12z Fax. Things shifted a bit further west with the 528 line held further north:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I tried calling that binary number and got an voicemail message saying 'sorry, but GFS is not here at the moment, please try again in April' 🤒


Pub run rolling - I wonder what the next instalment in this mega-saga will deliver?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
08 January 2016 21:59:19

O/T


H Willets saying only a small risk of LP coming from the SW at the end of the week........................interesting


She did say "there are a few flies in the ointment to watch out for."...................make of that what you will

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


sriram
08 January 2016 22:12:31


O/T


H Willets saying only a small risk of LP coming from the SW at the end of the week........................interesting


She did say "there are a few flies in the ointment to watch out for."...................make of that what you will


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


yes saw that as well


Maybe this mild change is by no means certain ?

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Gusty
08 January 2016 22:18:23

Its a complete mess but this run has a good feel about it.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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nsrobins
08 January 2016 22:18:54

At least the pub run appears to have stopped the rot. A colder perturbation, or a sign of a slow switch back with better heights sticking around Greenland?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
08 January 2016 22:19:47


The LP down to the far SW is dragging its heels a bit, this was mentioned on NW earlier this evenings, it was a thought over in the USA

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Andy Woodcock
08 January 2016 22:21:42

Away from the 10100101000, the Human influenced new Monday 12z Fax. Things shifted a bit further west with the 528 line held further north:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


makes you wonder if the cold air will ever reach the UK, it's like pulling teeth!


This week will join the other cold model disasters since TWO started in 2001, funny how a modelled Bartlett is always 99.9999% verified!


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
LeedsLad123
08 January 2016 22:23:06


 


makes you wonder if the cold air will ever reach the UK, it's like pulling teeth!


This week will join the other cold model disasters since TWO started in 2001, funny how a modelled Bartlett is always 99.9999% verified!


Andy


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Hasn't happened yet Andy. Don't be foolish.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Chiltern Blizzard
08 January 2016 22:25:23


 


 


yes saw that as well


Maybe this mild change is by no means certain ?


Originally Posted by: sriram 


?? What possible certainty is there in the charts a week or more away at the moment?  The only certainty is that it won't be +25c or -40c.  I know we've been let down plenty of times by the models in the past, but this tendency to 'pessimism' bias in which 'downgrades' a week or more out are treated as gospel is as absurd as buying a new scarf that will perfectly fit on the size of snowman you've calculated you'll be able to build based on an op run's snow projection at t+192!


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Arbroath 1320
08 January 2016 22:32:43
Having defended it in the past, I think the GFS model has given up the ghost with this set up. It is all over the place really. There have been so many variations in recent runs that it cannot be taken seriously. The UKMO looks like one to follow.
GGTTH
Arcus
08 January 2016 22:38:58
Not sure about GFS 18z giving up the plot, rather "Murder She Wrote". Another completely different handling of Disturbance 1 and the amplification henceforth. Excellent model viewing if you can remove yourself from the bedwetting.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gooner
08 January 2016 22:41:12

Weather type GFS Th 14.01.2016 06 GMT


J F F


Some wintry ppn around the place


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil24
08 January 2016 22:42:06

[quote=sriram;752931]


 


 


yes saw that as well


Maybe this mild change is by no means certain ?


 


Never

Arcus
08 January 2016 22:45:21
..and it's not worth anything really at this range, but nascent height rises over Scandi.

Sometimes the models sing from the same hymn sheet on the same day because the same drop of water landed on the same knuckle (cf RobK), but as Eric Morecombe would have said, sometime it's all the right notes, but in the wrong order.

Runs, Runs, More Models Runs (to paraphrase Blowers)
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Polar Low
08 January 2016 22:59:28

No comment on the pee run nice evolution as time goes on all pie in sky of coarse


Andy Woodcock
08 January 2016 23:03:42


No comment on the pee run nice evolution as time goes on all pie in sky of coarse



Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


Classic Toppler

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Gooner
08 January 2016 23:06:01


No comment on the pee run nice evolution as time goes on all pie in sky of coarse



Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yep , spotter badge . It ends ok as well .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
08 January 2016 23:07:16


 


 


Classic Toppler


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Ending like this it isn't


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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