J F F  Friday evening some heavier snow IMBY actually

Just looking at TWO's 150 dayer , temps in June are lower than we just had in December

Of course J F F

They know where the M4 is then!?

Colder , then warmer.

Haven't you realised ensemble means are useless, especially so when there's a large spread? I've been saying it often enough!

Here's the 12z ECM ensemble for Reading (I'll post today's at around 8:30).

Note the median temp is only 4C by day 10, hardly mild.

On balance, I think scandi troughing is more likely in the weeks ahead instead. I think a growing number of ENS are showing a situation of HP being close to the UK or just to the WSW with pressure falling to the N/NW of Britain. I hope so.... my favourite pattern

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.  Fascinating output, a thing of tenderly balanced beauty, the possibilities are endless.  My favourite charts are Retron's UKMO 144 and this from the GEM below.  ECM is OK thus far.  FI is around 120 though so caution required.

ECM doesn't develop the ridge to the north as much as with MetO at 144, but it's enough to stall the Atlantic low and maintain some cold (very cold, if over snow) air over the UK.

The low at 192 is literally being torn apart by the high to the NE and the resurgent Azores high to its SW. It'll be interesting to see what happens to it in the latter frames!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

EDIT: And the answer is - it ends up as a remnant trough over Portugal!

That ECM run is a very cold one for the UK, although by the end it's only shallow cold rather than deep cold. Still, sunny, frosty weather would doubtless go down well with most folks!

(Of course, it won't end up like that - but it's nice to see, nonetheless and it couldn't be further away from the GFS "zonal mush" 240 chart.)

I know but they can be useful guide sometimes but I did say the spread made them useless last night. 

Any snow info as ecm still looks snowy 120  - 144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

For England and Wales, snow starts spreading southwards as early as 96, with it reaching the London area at 114. By 126, areas north or east of a line from Bristol to the Isle of Wight are shown as having seen snow falling. Greatest amounts are in Essex (1-4 inches) and areas surrounding the Pennines (>3 inches). The 1 inch line runs from northern Wales ESE'wards to Sussex, with all areas north and east aside from the coastal strips (and Thanet in Kent) seeing an inch or more.

Edited as I was looking at the surface temperature charts, not the T2M charts!

The T2M charts, as opposed to the surface charts, show more realistic overnight lows of -9 to -15C from Tuesday onwards over the Highlands and prone spots. Across the majority of inland England, it's -3C to -9C - still pretty cold, but nowhere as low as those -20s on the surface charts!

GEFS0z. Looks we're getting a blended solution with the cold lasting well into next weekend but then probably breaking down.

Thanks, still impressive as you say just shows what a bit of lying snow can do.

Well, the cold has started here - light covering of snow this morning.

Back on topic, Ukmo continues to look great for a more extended cold period.

Here are the 0z ECM ensembles. Looks like the op's overhead high pressure and consequent surface cold at the end wasn't that well supported, but the majority of members remain cold. If anything, the ensembles have trended colder than yesterday's 12z!

(Note too how there's more scatter on the mild side of the median, implying the cold cluster has majority support.)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/216_mslp850.png?cb=548

Almost there at 216 in the ECM.

Bingo!The GFS op offers just the sort of  broad evolution  we want later in the month( if not before).Ridging N then the formation of A Scandi HP.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=0

Of course the devil is in the detail.The HP as shown on the op is a bit too far south and risks being overidden to the NW. Unilke 1946,similar time it is not linked to any arctic HP.As you would expect so far out there are a huge range of options from the ENs with Pt 11 showing a colder looking evolution.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=324&mode=0&carte=0

There is support from other models ECM and GEM for HP development towards 240h that has the potential to result in a Scandi HP.

In the shorter term METO at 144h is a cracker a GH with strong but not overblown central pressure.Both METO and ECM suggest an extended cold spell.

Of course everything could change but this mornings output is the best so far this winter with short term cold and longer term promise.

For once I am more than happy to see bitter cold plunging down into Greece and the Balkans.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 10TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly cold and unstable and showery Westerly flow will affect Southern Britain throughout the next 24-48hrs while Low pressure moving into the North of the UK ensures cloudy weather with some rain or snow in lighter winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over Scotland to nearer 5000ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across Scottish and Northern English hills today, tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across Southern England and France over the first week before ridging strongly North in the second week as High pressure builds near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled and cold conditions throughout the first week this morning as complex Low pressure across and near the UK make day to day differences in weather hard to pin down. However, rain, sleet and snow looks possible for all. Then High pressure slowly makes more inroads across the UK in the second week drying things up with quite chilly conditions maintained for the most part with frost at night as High pressure builds across the UK from the East. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run though with High pressure setting up shop to the South of the UK in week 2 milder conditions are more likely with rain at times as troughs cross East across the UK with rain at times in temperatures returning to near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today shows chances of a much more sustained cold period across the UK, certainly lasting through this week and next weekend and probably longer. With complex Low pressure ensuring a lot of instability in the atmosphere outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow at times look possible anywhere in the UK throughout.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure and troughing across the UK all week with rain or snow at times in temperatures colder than of late and winds still quite strong at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK too with complex Low pressure and low uppers aloft ensuring a lot of cold and showery conditions lasting through to next weekend when High pressure to the NW slips SE across the UK with cold, dry, bright days with sharp overnight frosts for all to start the second week as a strong ridge is maintained across the UK by then from the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is loosely similar in theme to GEM with showery Low pressure giving way to High pressure slap bang across the UK by the end of next weekend displacing the previous cold and showery weather with some snow in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows a theme of High pressure developing across the UK next weekend and into the second week bringing fine, cold and very frosty weather to all of the UK following a week of cold and showery conditions with some snow at times over the hills with rain and sleet at lower elevations through the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows High pressure likely to be close to the UK in 10 days time with fine and dry weather with frosty nights the most likely scenario though there is some suggestion of milder conditions for the North and West on a SW flow by the end of the period there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output shows a slow transitions to dry and fine conditions later next weekend with less cold conditions returning later in the extended outlooks first in the West and NW.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.9 pts over GFS's 63.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 47.6 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The upcoming cold spell has probably been the most difficult thing for the models to get a handle on in recent times and even now there are still plenty of longer term options shown which could change the longevity and the longer term weather conditions across the UK a week or so from now. However, there are a few common themes beginning to emerge between the different models this morning. Whatever happens longer terms all models agree on the UK becoming rather cold this week and with various areas of Low pressure meandering around the UK all week showery conditions look like continuing for many days. As the air becomes colder over the South in the coming days these areas will join the North in receiving a cocktail of precipitation from these showers and almost anywhere could see at least a dusting of snow through the week with frosts at night becoming much more likely. Then by next weekend it looks like High pressure will be building across the UK by one source or another to quieten conditions down and bring a spell of dry and frosty weather across all areas of the UK for a while at least. GFS today then shows it's usual of late return to less cold and unsettled weather with rain at times as things return to a more mobile pattern of Low pressure passing East to the North of the UK but to be honest things could be complicated by all sorts of issues as cold air across the UK and Western Europe could prove more stubborn to shift than is currently shown. So in simplistic terms the weather looks like being rather cold and showery over this coming week before drier and frosty weather maintains a cold theme through next weekend which leads us into a much more questionable period thereafter with plenty of options likely to be thrown up through model runs in the week to come for the period of weather in the second week, not all of them mild.

Next Update on Monday January 11th 2016 at 09:00 approx

Agreed, Roger.

I think many of us will simply be glad to finally, finally see the back of this wet spell in the meantime, even if it doesn't result in snow falling widely anytime soon.