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Arcus
10 January 2016 14:01:06


 


For a brief time I could access the parallels as an option on TWOs front charts page but it doesn't seem to be there anymore. Any guidance?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Can't see it from the Charts page - maybe Brian can shed some light on whether it's currently available?


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 14:09:13


For a brief time I could access the parallels as an option on TWOs front charts page but it doesn't seem to be there anymore. Any guidance?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


In January 2015 the previous parallel became the new op. You could access that iteration of the parallel on TWO from Oct 2014 to January 2015.


The new version of the GFS is actually 'pre parallel' at the moment and no date for pushing it into full evaluation has been set. Once a date has been set it will then run for several months officially as the parallel run before being transitioned into production.


In the next few weeks I will if I get time add in the current 'pre parallel' run to TWO.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bertwhistle
10 January 2016 14:27:46


 


In January 2015 the previous parallel became the new op. You could access that iteration of the parallel on TWO from Oct 2014 to January 2015.


The new version of the GFS is actually 'pre parallel' at the moment and no date for pushing it into full evaluation has been set. Once a date has been set it will then run for several months officially as the parallel run before being transitioned into production.


In the next few weeks I will if I get time add in the current 'pre parallel' run to TWO.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Oh- don't do it just for one poster Brian.



Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Quantum
10 January 2016 14:43:24


Here's the 0z Arpege +102 precip type view for 06GMT Thursday. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Sorry for going off topic but what parameter did you use to produce that?


There is a snowfall and precip parameter but they are cumulative over an entire maturity group. I've looked in SP1 and SP2 and cannot find anything that can be used to do this.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
yorkshirelad89
10 January 2016 15:00:03

ECM looking pretty good, UKMO looks superb at T+144 .


GFS I think is being overly progressive and I think the high pressure will stick around us for longer with the potential for some ridging over Scandi (although that is still to far away at the moment).


The UKMO could well keep the northerly theme going beyond the weekend.


One thing notable about the upcoming colder weather is how cold Scandi is over the next week, which could make an Atlantic breakthrough more difficult.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Some pretty cold temps forecast here later on in the week, even with what may be an overly progressive GFS.


So yes at this point anything may be borderline where I am (Southampton) but I am pretty happy with how things look.


The prospect of warm air flooding over the UK and a strong Euro high have gone and its looking pretty cold and dry. Its good to see a dry outlook, I was handcycling through the New Forest today and it was very boggy with some minor flooding in areas. So a drier spell is very welcome.


Even if the cold doesn't turn out to be as strong down south who knows, perhaps something better for us may come along later? 


Hull
cultman1
10 January 2016 15:07:48
Totally agree with the above resume ........we all need a period of drier weather especially much of the North and Eastern Scotland
Gooner
10 January 2016 15:21:36


ECM looking pretty good, UKMO looks superb at T+144 .


GFS I think is being overly progressive and I think the high pressure will stick around us for longer with the potential for some ridging over Scandi (although that is still to far away at the moment).


The UKMO could well keep the northerly theme going beyond the weekend.


One thing notable about the upcoming colder weather is how cold Scandi is over the next week, which could make an Atlantic breakthrough more difficult.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Some pretty cold temps forecast here later on in the week, even with what may be an overly progressive GFS.


So yes at this point anything may be borderline where I am (Southampton) but I am pretty happy with how things look.


The prospect of warm air flooding over the UK and a strong Euro high have gone and its looking pretty cold and dry. Its good to see a dry outlook, I was handcycling through the New Forest today and it was very boggy with some minor flooding in areas. So a drier spell is very welcome.


Even if the cold doesn't turn out to be as strong down south who knows, perhaps something better for us may come along later? 


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


We started off with a GH only to be dumped , wrist slashing , WIO posts etc and it seems to have turned around in the last 36 hours or so with UKMO 144 looking great , obviously it has to verify but one thing is it will be a cold week, some harsh frosts in places even Snow around.


ECM looks cold under the HP at the end with the possibility of linking to another HP to the NE, of course it could spin around again this evening , after the woeful December we have had the lower temps will be very welcome.


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
10 January 2016 15:26:39

Someone mentioned earlier about the accuracy of the 144hr charts on the UKMO runs being somewhat questionable. Is there any evidence out there that indicates whether or not the UKMO 144hr charts are less reliable than the corresponding charts on ECM and GFS runs?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
10 January 2016 15:31:41


Someone mentioned earlier about the accuracy of the 144hr charts on the UKMO runs being somewhat questionable. Is there any evidence out there that indicates whether or not the UKMO 144hr charts are less reliable than the corresponding charts on ECM and GFS runs?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


That has been said so many times on here , why should it be so poor 6 days out ??


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
10 January 2016 16:11:11

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


UK above at 96


GFS below at 96



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
10 January 2016 16:16:14


PPN at 126


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
10 January 2016 16:18:07

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


UKMO still looks good at 120


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
10 January 2016 16:22:55

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Another good 144 from UKMO


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
10 January 2016 16:23:13

GFS 12z is a nightmare for cold fans after t+144 money-mouth


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 16:23:37

Compared to the 0z the GFS12z seems to accelerate the end of the cold spell.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
10 January 2016 16:25:12


Compared to the 0z the GFS12z seems to accelerate the end of the cold spell.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Or accelerate the start of the next one in FI? 


sriram
10 January 2016 16:26:58


Compared to the 0z the GFS12z seems to accelerate the end of the cold spell.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Thats a horrendous chart for winter fans - it's as if we have wound the clock back to Dec - hope it doesn't come off


 


 


Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Brian Gaze
10 January 2016 16:28:26

CMC looks better for cold at 120.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
10 January 2016 16:28:29

GEM 120 similar to UKMO:



UKMO, different to GFS



These charts say to me: Cold, snow on hills especially in the N. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gandalf The White
10 January 2016 16:33:49


GFS is a nightmare


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Fixed your post to make it more reflective of recent performance.....


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Sinky1970
10 January 2016 16:35:38
IF the GFS12z is correct, the mild muck will be back 7 days or so, but it's not worth losing sleep over.
Bertwhistle
10 January 2016 16:35:39

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35276469


 


Chris Fawkes and the latest Beeb 'Weather for the week ahead'. In recent times this has taken a tentative look out to 7 days but it's a reflection of the model uncertainty that Chris stops on Friday.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
David M Porter
10 January 2016 16:36:45


 


 


Thats a horrendous chart for winter fans - it's as if we have wound the clock back to Dec - hope it doesn't come off


 


 


Originally Posted by: sriram 


Notice how much further south GFS has the HP to our west at 144hrs than UKMO has it.


Only a gut feeling, but I sense that GFS may be falling into the same trap it has fallen into so often in the past of being too progressive. UKMO may be wrong with it's evolution, but in my experience it doesn't often lead us up the garden path, if at all.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arbroath 1320
10 January 2016 16:38:47

GEM 12z looks like building a Scandi High at t180:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0


 


GGTTH
Whether Idle
10 January 2016 16:39:50


 


Fixed your post to make it more reflective of recent performance.....


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


If the GFS has this one right with regard to the weather on Friday - Sunday of next week then it will be an extraordinary performance, as it will have "faced off" UKMO, GEM  and to some extent ECM, amongst others.


If, however, it gets the weather wrong for next weekend, we can draw a different conclusion.


An adjustment 300 miles north of this GEM chart would be fun for many (way into FI, I accept)...



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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