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Whiteout
12 January 2016 19:08:40


 


whats the point of having a debate with someone who doesnt debate.


the same person banned time over for an agenda.an agenda to wind people up.


We all know the context of ians post- by inferring the mild weather was an absolute. 


Where as the people who debate put points across.


But I cant be bothered to argue.


same old ian- or is it melanie or is shropshire.


Same old nick.


 


Oh great have we got a banned poster from NW in our midst now 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Steve Murr
12 January 2016 19:08:43


 


There is no need for such uncalled for personal comments. I also don't think the personal tone directed at Shropshire is called for. For heaven's sake, it's just model analysis. Can we not keep it civil? I don't see any "mild supporters club". If people comment on Shropshire's posts and/or think they might be accurate, then that's their right. Just like people (here and there) often highlight and praise your posts. I don't see the difference. 


Differences of opinion are great - but just argue against someone else's take. No need to invoke such barbs.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


whats the point of having a debate with someone who doesnt debate.


the same person banned time over for an agenda.an agenda to wind people up.


We all know the context of ians post- by inferring the mild weather was an absolute. 


Where as the people who debate put points across.


But I cant be bothered to argue.


 same old ian- or is it melanie or is shropshire.


Same old nick.


For the record ECM 240 chart has swung 14 degrees colder in 1 run today- But of course theres no signs of change.


 


 


 


 


 

KevBrads1
12 January 2016 19:09:11


Not sure why people are doubting the day 8/9 charts , historically if the first system stalls/slips SE then the second system breaks through a couple of days later.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Garbage, it depends on the circumstances of the time. I don't recall it happening in January 2013.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Polar Low
12 January 2016 19:09:42

Indeed Michael, as I said earlier im not fully convinced with this undercut sometimes its easy to say what you want rather than what the models shows but I cant say it will work like that we also have to take note what the met say extended data. with what we don't see etc.


[quote=doctormog;754936]I would be very careful if you are in the "mild camp" or "cold camp" re. claiming victory or getting one over on each other. The entire time period of this cold snap/blip/spell is yet to even start. Now is not the time for gloating (if there ever is one).

One thing I will say is that the outlook is both interesting and uncertain. Every day seems to bring a slight change in the options and I'm not sure that will change over the next day or two. To what, I don't know![/quote]

Whiteout
12 January 2016 19:09:50


 


 


Sure big snow event, looks good going forward ? :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860108.gif


Oh no it doesn't :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860110.gif


 


Big snow event :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif


Thaw begins :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960210.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


and your point is?

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Shropshire
12 January 2016 19:11:24


 


whats the point of having a debate with someone who doesnt debate.


the same person banned time over for an agenda.an agenda to wind people up.


We all know the context of ians post- by inferring the mild weather was an absolute. 


Where as the people who debate put points across.


But I cant be bothered to argue.


 same old ian- or is it melanie or is shropshire.


Same old nick.


For the record ECM 240 chart has swung 14 degrees colder in 1 run today- But of course theres no signs of change.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


 


I don't assume that Steve, I call it as I see it from past experience and like everyone else I've made big wrong calls over the years. You made one with regarding easterlies after Xmas that, not having a go, I found astonishing given your experience.


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
NickR
12 January 2016 19:12:23


 


whats the point of having a debate with someone who doesnt debate.


the same person banned time over for an agenda.an agenda to wind people up.


We all know the context of ians post- by inferring the mild weather was an absolute. 


Where as the people who debate put points across.


But I cant be bothered to argue.


same old ian- or is it melanie or is shropshire.


Same old nick.


 


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Seriously, Steve, we're just trying to conduct a discussion with contributions from all sides. "lemmings" and "same old nick" doesn't help. Come on, mate, take a step back. Shropshire's posts don't have your stance or views, but they're not trolling. ANd I'm just trying to keep it civil. Can't you?

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Shropshire
12 January 2016 19:13:19


 


 


and your point is?


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


 


That usually once you have a staller or slider, the Atlantic wins with the second system.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Arcus
12 January 2016 19:15:39

I would be very careful if you are in the "mild camp" or "cold camp" re. claiming victory or getting one over on each other. The entire time period of this cold snap/blip/spell is yet to even start. Now is not the time for gloating (if there ever is one).

One thing I will say is that the outlook is both interesting and uncertain. Every day seems to bring a slight change in the options and I'm not sure that will change over the next day or two. To what, I don't know!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I don't necessarily think it's a cold v mild thing Doc. For me it's all about how the models have handled this "colder" spell, and given all the verification stats that have been bandied about of late it's been fascinating to see the dissimilitude of certain models in their runs. Not wishing to overly anthropomorphise algorithms, but it's been like GFS has been scribbling crap on the exam paper then leaning over to try and copy the cool Euro boy's answers.


Anyway, it's plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose in terms of the medium to long term in terms of any definitive end to the cool/colder spell. Trends, more runs needed etc (pick your own TWO meme)

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gusty
12 January 2016 19:16:11

We need to pick a static base point in which to make a firm assessment. As Doc has said the cold spell hasn't even started yet.


I shall use the 0z run on Sunday 10th January for T+144. The GFS modelled the atlantic smashing through with ease whilst the UKMO held the block to our WNW strong and firm with cold persisting.


Lets see what Saturday brings before we carry out a debrief and hail UKMO as king of the models 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Bertwhistle
12 January 2016 19:16:54


 


 


Sure big snow event, looks good going forward ? :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860108.gif


Oh no it doesn't :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860110.gif


 


Big snow event :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif


Thaw begins :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960210.gif


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Thanks- a great example. Except your post reads 'historically...' and then continues in the present active tense. This implies that this IS what happens rather than this is what happened on that occasion. The tense implication is that using a present form in a past historical context offers a future-tense predictive element.So the generalisation, whilst not gainsaid at this juncture, is not given robust supporting evidence. To illustrate, (and I don't want to start a goal-scoring meteorological ball game here) a counter example has already been offered.


In short, henceforth you might be right, but you haven't proven it and probably don't know.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
KevBrads1
12 January 2016 19:17:35


 


 


Sure big snow event, looks good going forward ? :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860108.gif


Oh no it doesn't :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860110.gif


 


Big snow event :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif


Thaw begins :


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960210.gif


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


What you neglect to mention, is that before this that there was an attempt of the Atlantic to break through, I remember the Saturday after New Year 1986 and we had snow. It was suppose to turn to rain but failed. The Atlantic never had the whip hand from Christmas 1985 until early January 1986. There were attempts, some snowy, one or two not but it was a struggle for about a fortnight.

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
The Beast from the East
12 January 2016 19:25:15


 


 


That usually once you have a staller or slider, the Atlantic wins with the second system.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


It is an improvement on the 00z but we have the azores high  pushing the jet too far north so the end is always inevitable. The ECM op corresponds with the latest METO forecast. But a week long cold spell is good  for this country so we shouldn't be greedy. Hopefully further northern blocking in Feb and March.


 


Anyway, NAVGEM goes with UKMO and extends the blocking


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
KevBrads1
12 January 2016 19:26:59


 


What you neglect to mention, is that before this that there was an attempt of the Atlantic to break through, I remember the Saturday after New Year 1986 and we had snow. It was suppose to turn to rain but failed. The Atlantic never had the whip hand from Christmas 1985 until early January 1986. There were attempts, some snowy, one or two not but it was a struggle for about a fortnight.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Here is the thread that I wrote on it, very recently.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=747505&find=unread#post747505


And you can see I mention two frontal snow events.


Also remember the February 1996?


There was the frontal snow on the 5th/6th but how many remember the low that came immediately afterwards? That slipped further SEwards than originally predicted.


It depends on the circumstances of the time.


 


 


 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
NickR
12 January 2016 19:29:22
OK. Time to stop the one-liners that are simply about having a dig.

This is analysis of models. Who cares if people hold different views and have different preferences. You disagree with someone? Say why, without resorting to snide comments that are often little more than ad hominem. Come on, guys! It's model analysis for crying out loud, not tribal warfare!
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gusty
12 January 2016 19:30:01

Lets take a step back and take a look at this. For the first time in about a week we finally have pretty good agreement across the NWP at 144 in the realms of FI. All of them signalling a potential snow event from a trough disruption slider on Monday 18th.


T+144 UKMO



ECM T+144



GFS T+144



Let's leave it there for now and start to embrace the current possibility of a decent snow event on Monday based on virtual cross model agreement from the big 3.


Getting involved in silly arguments and willy waving second guessing what may happen post 144 is all very pointless after tonight's alignment.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
12 January 2016 19:32:05


OK. Time to stop the one-liners that are simply about having a dig.

This is analysis of models. Who cares if people hold different views and have different preferences. You disagree with someone? Say why, without resorting to snide comments that are often little more than ad hominem. Come on, guys! It's model analysis for crying out loud, not tribal warfare!

Originally Posted by: NickR 

nickl
12 January 2016 19:38:20
Ian is right

The next system will go through the weak blocking that is left if ECM is in the ball park. Either the modelling has the next system too strong and it will disrupt again or we need UKMO to be right with the cut off mid Atlantic ridge which will force the system further south.

we may be winning this battle at day 6/7 but losing the war at day 8/9.

The models do seem to be struggling with the polar profile in the medium term re any consistency.
beanoir
12 January 2016 19:39:14


Lets take a step back and take a look at this. For the first time in about a week we finally have pretty good agreement across the NWP at 144 in the realms of FI. All of them signalling a potential snow event from a trough disruption slider on Monday 18th.


T+144 UKMO



ECM T+144



GFS T+144



Let's leave it there for now and start to embrace the current possibility of a decent snow event on Monday based on virtual cross model agreement from the big 3.


Getting involved in silly arguments and willy waving second guessing what may happen post 144 is all very pointless after tonight's alignment.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I like this, for those too lazy of us or with 3 second memories, I like the compare.


This is pretty good as model agreement goes, at this range for this complex set-up.  


 


 

Langford, Bedfordshire
NickR
12 January 2016 19:39:43


Lets take a step back and take a look at this. For the first time in about a week we finally have pretty good agreement across the NWP at 144 in the realms of FI. All of them signalling a potential snow event from a trough disruption slider on Monday 18th.


T+144 UKMO


 


ECM T+144


 


GFS T+144


 


Let's leave it there for now and start to embrace the current possibility of a decent snow event on Monday based on virtual cross model agreement from the big 3.


Getting involved in silly arguments and willy waving second guessing what may happen post 144 is all very pointless after tonight's alignment.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Buy that man a pint!  :D

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 19:40:56

OK. Time to stop the one-liners that are simply about having a dig.

This is analysis of models. Who cares if people hold different views and have different preferences. You disagree with someone? Say why, without resorting to snide comments that are often little more than ad hominem. Come on, guys! It's model analysis for crying out loud, not tribal warfare!


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 Completely agree. There's plenty of uncertainty and interest in the model output at the moment. I wouldn't make a categorical call on what things will be looking like next week. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gusty
12 January 2016 19:44:22

Getting that first system to undercut is often a game changer and turns a cold spell into a prolonged cold spell. There were many instances in the 80's whereby the great atlantic force was forecasted to smash through but couldn't. The undercut at 144 is yet to fully occur, we are not there yet.  IMO we are a whisker away now though from a game changer. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



SJV
12 January 2016 19:46:01


 


Buy that man a pint!  :D


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Seconded 



Great post Gusty! 

Gusty
12 January 2016 19:50:15


 


Seconded 



Great post Gusty! 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Cheers I'll save them for Saturday night ! . 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Brian Gaze
12 January 2016 19:52:48


Brian, there seems to be a bit of a glitch with the UK thickness charts for ECM as they often don't have any labels for the dam lines.

eg. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/120_thickuk.png?cb


 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Thanks. The problem is with my script not the dataset or download. I'll update tomorrow and force it to draw labels.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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