The next round of the GFS v UKMO saga comes next week. Can GFS equalise to make it 1-1. ?

By Wednesday the UKMO has a the country under a frosty high. GFS is comfortably back into an atlantic regime.

UKMO 144

GFS 144

Chances of an undercut mid next week appear to have receded this morning.  UKMO going for the cold to stay under settled anticyclonic conditions as far as the eye can safely see at 144.  Yet again the GFS has flopped back to massive Atlantic progression, compared to the 12z yesterday.

Expect more changes going forwards.

ECM 168. The models this morning are bringing forward the breakdown. They could flip back. If they don't it may be that when we assess their relative performance was varied, but the GFS didn't do as badly as many have been suggesting.

This chart is now beginning to be served up on a consistent basis now, along with GFS and GEM. It also ties in with the MetO outlook and whilst uncertainties still remain, I do think this outcome must be the form horse now.

Yes, the models seem to have had a lightbulb moment this morning where they have suddenly realised the solution - quite a swift transition to a progressive pattern in the middle of next week.

I think it was inevitable from the upstream profiling; let's get it here and over with; every reason to believe that it won't last too long 

Big downgrades this morning for prolonging the cold both ecm and GFS are quick to bring the Atlantic in by day 5. Ukmo keeps us under a cold high but looks to be sinking prob by day 7. I don't think we'll have to wait that long though for the cold to return GFS has it returning in FI. 

A clear attempt to wind up those looking forward to a cold spell which, for most, hasn't even started yet. 

And what happened to the four weeks you were droning on about a couple of days ago?

The cold spell has well and truly started here in Denmark and it is throwing up short term surprises. Woke up in Copenhagen this morning to deep snow and it is still coming down - that was not forecast.

The new tropical storm in the Atlantic should stir things up a bit too - will increase model uncertainty, even though we have no idea whether it will benefit the UK or destroy us by ushering back the soggy SW winds - it will take a couple of days for the weather models to get to grips with it though.

Justin, I said HISTORICALLY, in recent years, the kind of zonality being projected has on average a 4 week shelf life. I said then that there were signs that if it takes hold then it may not last that long. I now definitely believe it won't last anything like that long.

I believe it is worth remembering the current cold spell which starts in earnest today was forecast to be a one day wonder and finish tomorrow by the GFS last week! What we have instead is IMHO a 6day cold spell with crisp anticylonic weather. The coldest weather for 3 years for some! That is what I call a great result, and hats off to the UKMO for getting it right. I dare say the UKMO 144 this morning will be similarly more attuned to reality than the others, in 6 days time, again!

Sorry Brian, according to GFS it should have been breaking down this weekend.... There is no doubt it has handled this setup appallingly.

Factor in the uncertainty generated by these unusual January tropical features in the Atlantic and FI probably starts at t+96.

There has been a lot of model flux in general. Obviously the main focus has been on GFS/GEFS because it runs 4x daily and is more widely available. I've pasted in GEFS runs from 04/01 and 06/01 for reference. My view is the GEFS is good at picking up a colder signal in the 10 to 16 day range. It's main problem is that initially it has a tendency to "over egg the pudding", and often suggests a longer and deeper cold spell than we end up with. 

Reminder: Please talk about the model output and not each other. I'll remove OT posts.

Brian does have a point about GFS, if it only produced two runs a day you might not see such flip flopping but I have to agree it has had to do a massive turnaround.  Still, not quite as fun as the 6 month LRF CFS for January - that's a full on opposite flip!!!  

Looking at this mornings GFS interesting how the warmth never really reaches very far east and HP is maintained over Scandy with 1050 pressure, with that sort of thing going on it really is game on and if this strat warming does occur as keeps being shown it could be an interesting end to the month into February.  Back to the present and still not convinced by the short term GFS / ECM progression - I'd need to see UKMO on board first, unusual conditions and we don't know how that tropical storm with interact with the larger pattern yet. Very interesting model watching if nothing else and thanks for all the informative posts from members like Retron, Gusty, Brian, Stormchaser etc over the past few days - a great read as always.

As an Englishman or woman there are only 3 things in this life that are unavoidable; death, taxes and prevailing westerly winds for 95% of the year.

The trick is not to call their return but to call when, for the briefest of times, they will stop.

I've thought from the start that for most places this will be a dry, cold spell. For some it will be a dry, coolish spell. If you sit and compare it to 47 and 63 you are going to be hugely disappointed but if you compare it to the 21st of December you might just be happy with your lot.

I can't see that the flip to a quicker breakdown is any less likely than the flip yesterday to a more prolonged cold. All I do know is that if it is after Monday/Tuesday next week then it is very much FANTASY ISLAND

Looking on my phone, but haven't these flipped a lot milder? 

Got factual data on this? I would like to see it.

no getting away from it. a very disappointing morning. Even UKMO is just hanging on.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 14TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold NW flow will cover the UK through the next 24-48hrs with wintry showers at times across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will lie around 500m or 2000ft today with precipitation falling as now above levels of 200m or 1000ft today and tonight.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Very Cold and frosty with the small chance of snow in the South-west for a time early next week then becoming milder for all with some rain in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream turning South across the UK over the coming days having crossed the Atlantic on an easterly track around 50deg north. The flow then largely disrupts as far as the UK is concerned next week as it becomes much lighter and less well defined across Europe thereafter.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows cold conditions lasting across the UK through the weekend and the start of next week as a cold High crosses the UK from the West. This is then shown to collapse away to the SE towards midweek with SW winds for all and some rain at times in the North and West in particular with any drier and chillier conditions more likely to the SE and behind the passage of cold fronts in the North.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar pattern to the Operational with a messy transition away from the cold pattern towards the middle of next week to much milder SW winds with rain at times thereafter with temperatures much closer to average and just brief cooler spells behind any cold fronts crossing East in the flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO model today is again wanting to prevent milder Atlantic air into the UK next week with High pressure remaining the dominant feature centred across the UK from the weekend and into the middle of next week. Conditions nationwide would remain cold or very cold with widespread sharp night frosts and freezing fog in places. Any wintry showers would be restricted to the far East and SE at first.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data well with High pressure centred over the UK in Arctic sourced air ensuring a cold, bright and frosty period maintained through the early part of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows cold and anticyclonic conditions from the weekend as High pressure is maintained close to the UK. Then through next week a slow transition towards mild SW winds begins with a messy transition of rain and snow in the SW and South for a time before the milder air accelerates NE over remaining areas late in the week with rain at times towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks fine and settled this morning but cold. Once the next few days of wintry showers have cleared away East High pressure builds across the UK only receding away slowly East next week, first as a disrupting Low pressure slips SE into France and delivering a risk of snow for the South and West and then more generally as milder SW winds claw there way NE across most Western and Northern areas at least by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today has firmed up again on a return to milder air next week as a messy transitions day or two of rain and snow moves across the UK early in the week following a cold and frosty weekend. by the end of the run all areas are shown to be under fresh and mild West or SW winds with some rain at times in the North and West and High pressure very strong to the South of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is a close replica of the operational chart for the same time so this morning we can evaluate that there is high confidence in this kind of outcome coming to be.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show different options towards how long the cold weather across the UK lasts but the end theme for milder weather for all by the end of next weekis maintained and indeed strengthened this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.1 pts over GFS's 63.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.7 pts to 46.3 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS UKMO this morning still looks very isolated in it's stance of maintaining surface cold weather across the UK well into the middle of next week at least while all other output brings milder SW winds across the UK even quicker in some instances than was shown yesterday. For the here and now the weather is settling down for a period of cold and frosty weather especially over the weekend when some very low night temperatures could be achieved under clear skies and anywhere where there is any snow cover. Talking of snow there will be some over the next few days moving South across the UK in the form of showers in the ever weakening Northerly flow though amounts look far from troubling for most. Then as High pressure builds across the UK the coldest weather arrives with widespread frost and some freezing fog. Through the beginning of next week milder Atlantic air will be trying to push in from the SW and after an erratic start most output accelerates this across all areas in the middle days of next week. However, with UKMO still showing a strong High pressure rock solid across the UK next Wednesday I wouldn't discount an extension to the cold not shown by the other output again this morning though on the downside for some due to it's persistence of High pressure any Atlantic attack misses the SW on Monday and and looks some way off still by midweek. So not for the first time of late it's the rest vs UKMO today as this rollercoaster ride of a cold spell continues to baffle the output. For those looking for snow it's not looking particularly likely for many at least not in a meaningful way and if the whiff of snow for the South and SW doesn't materialise in the transitions period early next week it looks likely we could be waiting a good while again thereafter as the Jet stream looks like returning to it's normal axis long term unless the UKMO continues to show a different pattern.

Next Update Friday January 15th 2016 from 09:00