Well let's not be too hasty in writing the GFS off, if you look at the 06z ensembles there were some members that hinted at this sort of quick breakdown. The UKMO has changed significantly since this morning itself. The models are clearly in a state of flux, perhaps the ECM will offer a blended solution later, but I would expect it to look more like the GFS.

Going to do a Muir.

Bin the GFS, it has no agreement among the high resolution models which all handle the situation very differently, in fact there is broad agreement that early next week will be much colder than it is over the weekend.

One thing to point out though, as good a chart as that is for coldies, it's still very different from the UKMO equivalent 00z t144 chart this morning which had a high slap bang on top of the UK. UKMO 12z is certainly more progressive than the 00z but the energy is heading under the UK which is very different from GFS 12z. 

Exactly what I said a few posts ago. This may just be at the more progressive end of the spectrum.

On the UKMO run, the high over the UK has moved into Europe and by +144hrs all the way into Asia.

lol, keep saying it, you will be right at some point 

GEM12z 144

It does a runner as soon as it gets a chance.

Yes a very interesting solution, but let's remember the progression in itself is nothing like the UKMO this morning which had HP on top of us !

I feel discounting the GFS just because we don't like it is foolish.

Can you explain further as i don't see that at all? 

GEM12z looks more consistent than the GFS or UK Met today.

lol 

Without wanted to sound like a troll, I think the GFS will end up winning this in the short term.  I get your point about saying something will happen, but not when - and claiming the glory.  however I get the feeling we will wake tomorrow to find all models keen on Mild westerlies by Monday morning, with only kent below average temps.

Weve been here too many times to be blind to this expected behaviour.  Im keen for this cold spell to do what it wants then move on, and not drag its heels.  I hate the slow return to milder weather.  Its usually damp, cold and featureless.  Everything gets wet through condensation.

Dont get me wrong, I would love for the METO to pull off, and I know the GFS hasnt been the form horse recently.  however the consistency its pumping out westerlie winds at some point early next week says to me its going to happen, regardless of its recent verificatioon stats.

From experience - always back the mild horse.

I would admit there was uncertainty as Deakin did.  But I would base my forecast judgement on recent handling of the situation and for that reason I would side with the UKMO.  IMHO the GFS is wrong and is simply misleading people, as it has done in this delicately balanced situation for over a week now.  This synoptic situation is beyond its capabilities. 

Not fit for purpose springs to mind.

Perhaps the UKMO run this evening is more in line with the Tweet from IF about the Atlantic having more energy but on the southern track

Yes lows going to the South of the UK. Always difficult to say but this chart looks potentialy very snowy to me. Incredible difference to the GFS. And more in line with Meto forecast.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

I don't know, you don't know, even he doesn't know... ?!? 

It will be interesting to see what the ECM throws up this evening If it is more along the lines of the UKMO then I would suggest that the GFS will be way off the mark.

However, if it follows GFS, then we can't discount the GFS solution

Stating the obvious a bit i know but i don't think we discount anything in this sort of set up.

I'm pretty sure that's not possible.  The computer modelling will reflect the inputs, it's just a question of whether the modelling deals with this pattern correctly.

The 12z GFS run takes the storm and it gets absorbed into the LP system that exits Newfoundland.  I think it's just part of the same underlying problem that we've been seeing and discussing for days now - i.e. to what extent GFS is too progressive.

As has been observed, the differences between UKMO and GFS at T+96 are notable, with GFS pushing the jet on a more northerly track and more west-east.

We're no further forward than we were really in terms of which model is handling this best.

I think one of the issues is modelling the heights to the south - UKMO has the 556dam 500hPa line running across the southern end of Biscay at T+120 and the northern Iberian coast at T+144 whereas GFS has it in the Channel.  That's the thick end of 1,000 miles difference, which is significant.  It matters because UKMO leaves that space for energy to go further south - at T+144 it has a shallow low off the north coast of Spain - GFS has a surge of warm uppers and a high pressure cell not far to the south.

GEM has a blended solution. initially some energy goes under but eventually the northern arm fires up and sinks the block. I think that's the most likely outcome. Very surprised to see UKMO not backing off. ECM will probably also be a blended effort.

IE, GEFS backs up GFS. Not surprising, but given the way the whole suite flipflopped from mild to cold, then cold to mild in the space of 18 hours... I really wouldn't put too much faith in it right now.

ECM flipped yesterday as well, but the "warm up" was a good couple of days after GEFS - there's enough time for that to flip back.

We have seen whole suites flip before at short range, the failed easterly several years back flipped at something like T+96!