COLIN!! there's a question for you!

After what looks a fairly feeble cold spell a return of mild south westerlies

A classic winter pattern, with bitterly cold air in Athens.

Problem at the moment is it's like Wacky Races. The models are all over the place but all roads are leading to a similar medium range outcome. I'd like to start seeing more of the operationals breaking away from a height rise over the continent and the jet riding over the top scenario . 

Your right, irrespective of the churn, it always feels like a matter of just how long before we get the Euro High and strong W to SW winds.  I know the odd GFS run has shown something else, but there's very little support for any other final position.

Indeed, there's clearly a strong signal coming from somewhere for a Euro high and low heights to reassert themselves to the NW into February. It's a case of "all roads lead to Rome" (or Athens) at the moment.

Which is disappointing considering Feb is supposed to be the month with the best potential this winter...

February is 16 days away and it's a 29 day month this year. 

The range of output around days 3- 4 is mind boggling. Here's the Brazilian model @96hrs- raging WSWly. Below is DWD/ICON@78hrs

and finally, this morning's NASA offering @ 144ish

Thats completely different to what IF tweeted today,...........and Rob why are you commenting of Feb when we are still in this cold spell.

Very odd

In other words a return to our normal default position for uk weather.

From early today

Yes, some troubling-looking selections of output this morning for early next week, more especially for N and E of W Country. But exceptionally low confidence on what will unfold. Interestingly, latest UKMO overnight prognosis through Feb builds Atlantic block with us on colder eastern side/troughing... we may have the experience of current period to unravel yet again further down the line

From IF

Yes maybe. We need to keep an eye on developments to the NW on Saturday evening. We are only 30 hours away and we are literally clueless. 

The Indian Model leads the way there...

well the northwest has so far proved useless lol...  Fingers crossed though 😄

I'm really not sure if you just post to wind people up, feel free to post a link to show the mild weather of course

Yep get your speedos on

Heatwave on Monday

Followed by a scorcher

Just like weather forecasting in 1977 all over again!

Edit Steve - is that you in the front with your beard gone but tash remaining?

Even the Bee Gee's were doing a spot of model watching in 1977 and getting confused. 

An interesting comparison of today's 12z SLP/850s and shows UKMET to be out on a limb...

Well, from this weekend we see model output into Feb, and the further MetO outlook also goes well into Feb. I'm just looking for any signs of February blocking.

What IF says about blocking to our west in the Atlantic seems to contradict the MetO 30-dayer which suggests blocking will be to our east with the south and east the coldest and driest?

Calm down Marcus!  Picturesareme lives in Portsmouth - it's always mild down there 

FWIW I have nothing of note to add to the discussion in here as the output is all too enjoyably crazy right now  Looks like milder weather will win but nothing insanely wet or overly mild forecast and still plenty of hope of a re-load of cold (hopefully more potent than this one) as we get towards Feb.

Some very cold air waiting to the east. It would be lovely to tap that sweet cold booty at some point this winter 

yes but Rob they are hardly likely to put any mention of snow at this stage are they , clearly 'if' they are seeing signs as per the comments from IF then they will wait until they come into a closer timeframe...surely.

Look how the updates have changed in the last few days

My point though.....................poorly made I admit is that , the comments made were VERY misleading for anyone new to the forum or the weather game .

Well we've still got the best ratio of detailed, informative model output posts compared to the vague one-liners of any UK weather forum. People can read around 

Like they should read around this post 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016011512!!/

All manner of options