Looks as though it's heading south to me.

ECM 12z ensemble for London:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Much the same story - good agreement for 48 hours...... Still a cluster keeping it cold through next week, then a move to less cold and then a trend towards colder aagin later.

Nonsense, you are comparing the daily MAXIMA with the January MEAN! ie the average of max and min which is what that map shows    

Here the map says average daily mean is 4-5C. Actually today the min was 0.1 and the max 5.2 giving a mean of 2.7C. A couple of degrees below average.

Comparing every cold spell with the coldest day of the past 100 years and moaning when it is milder than that is just ludicrous and a recipe for perpetual disappointment.

Give me this cold snap, sunshine, frost and the chance of snow over the perpetual crud of December any day. And snow is indeed there on the models for tomorrow night for central southern England. 

Hi Peter

Is it possible that the ECM 12z op run was one of the milder options? It doesn't look an especially cold run to be and almost looks reminiscent of December's pattern at T+240, albeit with HP a bit closer than was the case last month.

This cold spell is poor, and no that is not on comparison to a winter like 09 or 10. Its more like your typical November cold plunge.. last winter had better cold spells even for us down here. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=arpege&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=33&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Arpege 18z has the snow moving SE into the London area overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Edit: Euro4 18z has a messy mix of rain/sleet/snow but on broadly the same track.

Of course, but it's far better than December and the first week or so of January. We were never looking at a "severe" spell, just a colder than average one. And the chance of snow has risen from zero to maybe 1 in 3 here. I'll take those odds. 

Hi David, the Op looks to be in the middle to me, except for Monday when it's one of the milder options and Days 9/10.

I'm not sure that we can read too much into these at the moment given the significant uncertainties over the next 3-4 days.  Even tomorrow night snow now looks a decent possibility for London when it wasn't even a consideration 24 hours ago.

Snow risk for me is even lower tomorrow... i saw snow here last February will i have to wait for February this year for my next dusting? Probably.

I was kind of enjoying the endless mild (generally) dry days of December. 

Yet last night it never even existed in any forecasts - That was the night with severe frosts!

Meanwhile Met Office seasonal probability forecast has been updated: - NO change:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20160101/3up_20160101_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Morning!

The cold seems to hang on well into FI AGAIN.  A recurring theme.  It looks as if there might be a few snowfalls between now and next Saturday though.

ECM 96:

UKMO 72:

GFS 102:

This HP's light winds and clear skies have given me the coldest weather of the winter so far, even colder than the November cold spell.

a definite upgrade for wintry weather this morning... Firstly, snow forecast imby within next 24 hours, and secondly, an extension for the cold.

Wrt to comparisons with previous cold spells, I do get the frustration of those on the south coast... This and recent cold spells, even 2010, wasn't so good for that area. They need a deep cold easterly, but for some reason we've not had a notable one of those for 25 years!... Surely one must come along at some point.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=452

GFS ensembles- a massive 19 on snow row for London.

Only 9 for Brighton and 0 for Plymouth on same day.

And a familiar pattern in the far depths of outer FI...will it undercut...  If anyone has the strength to Carry on Model Watching by then.  Such a pity Sid James is no longer with us...

Yep, the excitement builds in the Chilterns. I'm hopeful of the first significant snowfall here since 2013 based on the overnight model runs. We shall see.

I'm seeing an old Uni pal for a walk in the vicinity of Bix.  It has been planned for months.  Perfect timing

2010 on the coast in West Sussex was amazing. We had 9 level inches of snow on the morning of the 3rd December. 

I was forced to walk to work in falling snow... No cars on the road... Proper wonderland stuff.

People are entitled to moan about this cold spell, just maybe the wrong thread. 

It is poor though on the whole and not what some hoped for when a huge Greenland high was being modelled a couple of weeks ago.

Look at the difference in the FAX charts for the new 84hrs against the old 96hrs.

12z Tuesday

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif?1

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1

The new 84hrs has more blocking and fronts in retreat compared to what it was showing 12hrs earlier.

yes Kev.  It is clear which way this is trending, again!

Those two charts really do highlight the current outlook very well. Cold and then uncertain. There has been very low confidence in the medium term for days now (despite me being castigated for saying that previously) and that seems to be continuing this morning, Cold air can be tricky to model in our own little corner of the world...not to mention January Atlantic hurricanes!

Before all that in the short term it looks cold with the risk of some snow in coming hours for a swathe of W and C Scotland then possibly further south overnight.

I've literally just seen "Stav" doing the BBC weather. "Messy on Monday then settling down and very cold next week"