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Brian Gaze
21 January 2016 19:32:56
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Jan 2016 to Thursday 4 Feb 2016:

Tuesday should see sun and blustery showers, but with outbreaks of rain in the north of the country. Drier conditions are likely across southern parts, but even here showers are possible. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with severe gales possible in the far northwest, along with some snow on northern hills. As we move into February, a northwest to southeast split may develop, with unsettled weather in the northwest and the best of any drier, brighter conditions in the southeast. Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the more settled spells in the south with a risk of overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2016 to Friday 19 Feb 2016:

The first weekend of February is likely to herald a change to slightly colder conditions as a north to south divide in the weather forms across the country. Northern areas are expected to remain unsettled, with further gales and hill snow possible in the northwest. Southern parts should stay drier, with lighter winds. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly above average through much of the period, but may fall just below normal by the middle of February.

Updated at: 0307 on Thu 21 Jan 2016


This makes no sense.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
22 January 2016 00:13:49


 


This makes no sense.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Indeed! First paragraph - "Around average throughout much of the country but below average in the more sunny spells in the south??"


Second paragraph: - They say "The first weekend "To herald a change to slightly colder conditions" - Then say temperatures are likely to remain close to or above average through much of the period!" - This in itself contradicts the above - Then they contradict themselves again by going on to say ...."but temperatures may just fall below normal by the middle of February. - This then contradicts their "Above average temperatures through much of the period!"


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2016 11:33:04

Worth posting in this thread as well as you won't find a better long range forecast and explanation of the latest theories anywhere on the Net. Superb stuff from the Beeb.


https://t.co/kSWrETx6Ko


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
22 January 2016 12:07:51
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:

On Wednesday there will be rain and strong winds in many areas but the rain will clear away southeastwards leaving a brief spell of colder, drier conditions leading into Thursday. Then further rain and milder air will return from the west later on Thursday. Some of the rain will be heavy and there will be wintry showers for a time in the northwest before the milder air returns. Thereafter the latest indications are that it will be changeable and often unsettled with spells of wet, windy weather interspersed with cooler, showery interludes. Northwestern areas are likely to have the heaviest rain, with a risk of hail and thunder, along with snow on hills, while the southeast will have the best of any drier, brighter intervals. Occasional overnight frosts are likely.

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2016 to Saturday 20 Feb 2016:

The current indications are that the weather across the British Isles will remain changeable with unsettled, milder spells interspersed with colder, drier but possibly showery interludes. The most unsettled weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should have more in the way of settled conditions, although all areas will have both unsettled and settled weather during this period. It should be generally windy, with the strongest winds in the north and northwest where gales are likely. However in the southeast the wind will be lighter at times and this may allow frost and fog to form here on some nights. The temperature overall is likely to be close to or above average, except in any settled intervals where fog and frost form.
Russwirral
22 January 2016 13:19:58


 


This makes no sense.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Im not sure, it could endup making alot of sense.


 


Taking into consideration of this weekend when very mild air hits us.  It could be the 2nd half of this winter is defined by extended cold periods of Just below average temps, countered by shorter periods of well above average temps.  Which would skew the overall temps to be slightly above average over a period of time.


 


 


Brian Gaze
22 January 2016 17:02:14


Im not sure, it could endup making alot of sense.


 


Taking into consideration of this weekend when very mild air hits us.  It could be the 2nd half of this winter is defined by extended cold periods of Just below average temps, countered by shorter periods of well above average temps.  Which would skew the overall temps to be slightly above average over a period of time.


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


No. I was talking about the temperatures. 


Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the more settled spells in the south with a risk of overnight frosts.


The first weekend of February is likely to herald a change to slightly colder conditions


Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly above average through much of the period


So...


Average, then switches to slightly colder but this makes the temperatures close to or slightly above average. 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
JACKO4EVER
22 January 2016 17:10:57
Seriously does anyone really look at the MetO 6-15 day updates? If it's zonal then fine- even my 10 year old son could confidently pick out the background signals. Chances of anything other then the spanner is dropped in the works from a great height. My advice- stick to Brian's front page or out very own TWO model output thread- and learn something from the more seasoned campaigners at the same time 👍
Gavin D
23 January 2016 12:09:48
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Jan 2016 to Saturday 6 Feb 2016:

A colder, showery interlude looks likely to affect the UK on Thursday, bringing the risk of some snow for northern areas, especially, but not exclusively to high ground. Milder air, along with further bands of rain or showers is set to return on Friday. Thereafter, and running through into the first week of February, a broadly westerly flow originating from the Atlantic looks set to dominate our weather. This means changeable and at times unsettled conditions across all parts, with perhaps the wettest and windiest weather focussed towards the north and west, where gales are possible at times. Generally, temperatures are likely to be near or above average, though brief overnight frost and fog is still possible, especially in quieter interludes overnight.

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Feb 2016 to Sunday 21 Feb 2016:

Remaining changeable, with unsettled with milder spells interspersed with colder, showery interludes. The most unsettled weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should see somewhat drier conditions overall, though even here, some rain is likely. Often windy, especially at first, with a continued risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. However, further southeast the wind will be lighter at times and this may allow frost and fog to form here on some nights. From mid month, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.
tallyho_83
23 January 2016 12:43:22
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Jan 2016 to Saturday 6 Feb 2016:

A colder, showery interlude looks likely to affect the UK on Thursday, bringing the risk of some snow for northern areas, especially, but not exclusively to high ground. Milder air, along with further bands of rain or showers is set to return on Friday. Thereafter, and running through into the first week of February, a broadly westerly flow originating from the Atlantic looks set to dominate our weather. This means changeable and at times unsettled conditions across all parts, with perhaps the wettest and windiest weather focussed towards the north and west, where gales are possible at times. Generally, temperatures are likely to be near or above average, though brief overnight frost and fog is still possible, especially in quieter interludes overnight.

UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Feb 2016 to Sunday 21 Feb 2016:

Remaining changeable, with unsettled with milder spells interspersed with colder, showery interludes. The most unsettled weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should see somewhat drier conditions overall, though even here, some rain is likely. Often windy, especially at first, with a continued risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. However, further southeast the wind will be lighter at times and this may allow frost and fog to form here on some nights. From mid month, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.


They can't make their minds up LOL. - Now stick to that and hope the next update won't be something like average or above average temperatures returning or continuing! It was only yesterday they were talking about close-to or above -average temperatures.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
23 January 2016 12:50:39


 


They can't make their minds up LOL. - Now stick to that and hope the next update won't be something like average or above average temperatures returning or continuing! It was only yesterday they were talking about close-to or above -average temperatures.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Maybe they are just picking up on some consistent signals


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
23 January 2016 13:05:33


 


They can't make their minds up LOL. - Now stick to that and hope the next update won't be something like average or above average temperatures returning or continuing! It was only yesterday they were talking about close-to or above -average temperatures.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Perhaps rather than "changing their minds" they may be responding to changes in the model output. 


Gandalf The White
23 January 2016 13:22:12


 


Perhaps rather than "changing their minds" they may be responding to changes in the model output. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Surely not Michael....



Seriously, that sort of wording was in the forecast only a week or so ago but was dropped.  As we know, it is consistent with the typical El Nino winter/early Spring profile and the main drivers explained so well in that excellent video from a day or two ago.


If the jet loses energy again then lots of possibilities open up.  In the meantime we have brief Polar Maritime interludes behind active cold front, such as the one very well and consistently signalled for next Wednesday into Thursday.


By then February will be coming into the reliable range of the models.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ARTzeman
23 January 2016 23:00:26

Hip hip hoorah for the colder conditions if it happens....  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
tallyho_83
24 January 2016 00:57:54
Just looked at the 150 day forecast for the south and ha ha! - Temperatures in May/June the same as they were back in December? - If anything a few days are colder:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1&page=4 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
24 January 2016 08:38:49

Just looked at the 150 day forecast for the south and ha ha! - Temperatures in May/June the same as they were back in December? - If anything a few days are colder:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=1&page=4

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


According to that, the maximum temperature from now until July 5 for southern England will be 18C. I think there is a glitch somewhere!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
24 January 2016 09:40:08


 


According to that, the maximum temperature from now until July 5 for southern England will be 18C. I think there is a glitch somewhere!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Correct


Thats far too high


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Crepuscular Ray
24 January 2016 12:28:24

I know I'm slow to catch on but just read an article by 'Piers' Corbyn in today's Observer. He's Jeremy Corbyn's brother!
Anyway FWIW he is forecasting a displaced polar vortex situation next month.


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gavin D
24 January 2016 12:48:04
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Sunday 7 Feb 2016:

After a fine start in the east on Friday, conditions will deteriorate from the northwest, with rain affecting the bulk of the UK by the end of the day, and perhaps becoming slow-moving across central areas on Saturday. Also becoming very windy, with gales or severe gales possible almost anywhere. This looks to set the scene for a period of changeable and often unsettled weather, dominated by depressions running in from the Atlantic, bringing further bands of rain interspersed by cooler, showery conditions. Most areas will often be windy, with a continued risk of gales, especially, but not exclusively in the north. Generally, temperatures are likely to be near or above average, though brief overnight frost and fog is still possible in any quieter interludes overnight.

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2016 to Monday 22 Feb 2016:

Remaining changeable, with unsettled, milder spells interspersed with colder, showery interludes. The most unsettled and at times windy weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should see somewhat drier conditions overall, though even here, some rain and strong winds are likely. Despite relatively mild conditions dominating, especially at first, in any quieter spells, some overnight frost and fog is quite probable. Towards the end of this period, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.
tallyho_83
24 January 2016 13:15:51


 


Correct


Thats far too high


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Unless we end up with a climate with no seasons of +14c to +15 in the winter with wind and rain and +16c - 18c in Summer with overcast gloomy skies.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
24 January 2016 13:17:28
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Sunday 7 Feb 2016:

After a fine start in the east on Friday, conditions will deteriorate from the northwest, with rain affecting the bulk of the UK by the end of the day, and perhaps becoming slow-moving across central areas on Saturday. Also becoming very windy, with gales or severe gales possible almost anywhere. This looks to set the scene for a period of changeable and often unsettled weather, dominated by depressions running in from the Atlantic, bringing further bands of rain interspersed by cooler, showery conditions. Most areas will often be windy, with a continued risk of gales, especially, but not exclusively in the north. Generally, temperatures are likely to be near or above average, though brief overnight frost and fog is still possible in any quieter interludes overnight.

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2016 to Monday 22 Feb 2016:

Remaining changeable, with unsettled, milder spells interspersed with colder, showery interludes. The most unsettled and at times windy weather is likely to occur in the north and northwest while the south and southeast should see somewhat drier conditions overall, though even here, some rain and strong winds are likely. Despite relatively mild conditions dominating, especially at first, in any quieter spells, some overnight frost and fog is quite probable. Towards the end of this period, there are signals that pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, bringing a more northerly flow to the UK, thus increasing the likelihood of colder conditions developing.


 


HP should be building over Scandinavia and Greenland or Iceland to bring cold weather NOT Atlantic!??


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
24 January 2016 13:50:15


 


Correct


Thats far too high


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I never thought you were a pessimist, Marcus.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
24 January 2016 14:47:58


 


 


HP should be building over Scandinavia and Greenland or Iceland to bring cold weather NOT Atlantic!??


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


A build of pressure in the atlantic, assuming it happens, could be the first step in getting us out of this unsettled pattern we've had for what seems like an eternity. The cold snap we've just had could and likely would have lasted for longer had there been a pressure rise in the atlantic. A mid-atlantic high, if it were to build further north towards Greenland eventually, could open the door to a more sustained much colder spell.


The MetO update today still sounds consistent with Ian Fergusson's update from yesterday, in that they still seem to see mid-February as a potential turning point.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
picturesareme
24 January 2016 15:04:32


 


A build of pressure in the atlantic, assuming it happens, could be the first step in getting us out of this unsettled pattern we've had for what seems like an eternity. The cold snap we've just had could and likely would have lasted for longer had there been a pressure rise in the atlantic. A mid-atlantic high, if it were to build further north towards Greenland eventually, could open the door to a more sustained much colder spell.


The MetO update today still sounds consistent with Ian Fergusson's update from yesterday, in that they still seem to see mid-February as a potential turning point.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


So basically spring 👎🏻

Gooner
24 January 2016 15:11:09


 


So basically spring 👎🏻


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


NO


That's March


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


picturesareme
24 January 2016 15:22:06


 


NO


That's March


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


meteorologically speaking it's 2 weeks off spring... In reality spring is already here by late February in the South & South West. For you midlanders and northerners it might still be winter but even so you only have 2 weeks by then.  😋😊

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