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soperman
19 January 2016 15:03:16


I'm not all that sure that Alex is responsible per se as all that WAA pushed into the Arctic should've aided blocking down the line not destroyed it. So we may have to look further afield for other teleconnective factors, that or simply plain old bad luck again.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Not quite. The tropical air moved north eastwards and has helped potent low weather systems to form off Newfoundland and traverse westwards smashing the greenie block. 

Solar Cycles
19 January 2016 15:07:33


 


Not quite. The tropical air moved north eastwards and has helped potent low weather systems to form off Newfoundland and traverse westwards smashing the greenie block. 


Originally Posted by: soperman 

This still should've aided blocking down the line despite short term effects.

soperman
19 January 2016 15:25:29


This still should've aided blocking down the line despite short term effects.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


May be it should/ve but it was absorbed by another low pressure system and apparently rotated back into New England.  Shortly afterwards another powerful low pressure system exited Labrador and powered south of Greenland.


What is frustrating is that the components to deliver a sustained and potentially severe cold shot were building nicely before Alex intervened.


 


 

warrenb
19 January 2016 16:09:07

GFS could turn into an easterly, Siberian high nosing around at 120, UKMO is completely different


 


 


Nope 

Tonbridge 45m 
Gusty
19 January 2016 16:24:09

Not for the first time this winter we have a decent scandinavian block with ample cold air to our east screaming massive potential, however, yet again heights over Spain prevent this cold air advecting west.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Solar Cycles
19 January 2016 16:28:55


 


 


May be it should/ve but it was absorbed by another low pressure system and apparently rotated back into New England.  Shortly afterwards another powerful low pressure system exited Labrador and powered south of Greenland.


What is frustrating is that the components to deliver a sustained and potentially severe cold shot were building nicely before Alex intervened.


 


 


Originally Posted by: soperman 

Possibly, but until we see much lower heights in Europe and a more robust push Norhtwards of heights from the North Atlantic then any lengthy cold spell was always a big ask. As for SSW I think too much emphasis is placed on this for cold spells developing  for the UK, there are many other important factors to consider and for all the right teleconnective  forecasts going forward this winter they've been scuppered by other developments, as is usually the case for our neck in the woods.

warrenb
19 January 2016 16:31:13
It is as if it is really wants to block, but just can't bring itself to do it.
Tonbridge 45m 
warrenb
19 January 2016 16:39:19
And no one has posted about UKMO for obvious reasons.
Tonbridge 45m 
warrenb
19 January 2016 16:42:13

And no one has posted about UKMO for obvious reasons.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


 


And GEM goes the way of the UKMO, December repeated.

Tonbridge 45m 
doctormog
19 January 2016 16:47:56


As it seems to have become the primary straw for many in the last few days, a few thoughts of my own concerning SSWs:


1) They are modelled, like any other parameter, and so should be treated with the same levels of confidence or not as any chart
2) We seem to have been anticipating a SSW for weeks, and it keeps being put back
3) The mechanism by which warming propagates down into the lower levels is not very well understood, neither is the effect on the formation and position of blocking high pressure that may or may not result from this process
4) If a SSW should occur, and if it propagates down, and if it causes an HLB in the right place, such a process given the current literature may not occur for several weeks after said SWW
5) To summarise, if it's a SWW that people are looking for to deliver a cold spell, then don't expect any results until mid-Feb


Just an opnion of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I fully agree with points 1,3 to 5 Re. point 2 the first time the Berlin data have shown clear evidence of a warming was yesterday and today's data are consistent with that. I have not used the much more variable looking GFS/Meteociel charts as they seem to show "warming" quite frequently in my experience (and as you say things, based on that source seem to have been pushed back continuously).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Charmhills
19 January 2016 16:49:26

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/blogs/entry/5-potential-sudden-stratospheric-warming/


Well explained here by Matt.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
warrenb
19 January 2016 16:53:40

Raging PV lobe over Greenland/Baffin in both UKMO and GEM and GFS


 


Which on the later part of the GFS is on the move to our side of the world.

Tonbridge 45m 
Saint Snow
19 January 2016 17:08:31

Winter 2015/16 Model Watching:


 



 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
SJV
19 January 2016 17:16:09

I honestly feel if we have to start talking at length about SSW events influencing our weather then we must be straw clutching for cold 


With the charts as they are right now I think we'll have to suffer through a bit of mild to get our cold reward in February. Lets hope the heights to the south bugger off in time 

Sinky1970
19 January 2016 17:22:55
You can guarantee that some of these charts in this run won't show up in our summer.
warrenb
19 January 2016 17:23:20
And to top it all, up to 192 ENS snoozefest
Tonbridge 45m 
David M Porter
19 January 2016 17:26:09


I honestly feel if we have to start talking at length about SSW events influencing our weather then we must be straw clutching for cold 


With the charts as they are right now I think we'll have to suffer through a bit of mild to get our cold reward in February. Lets hope the heights to the south bugger off in time 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


I only wonder whether this possible SSW event has been anticpiated by some since quite a few weeks before the turn of the year. The MetO's three month forecast from late November mentioned that Feb was likely to give us ther best chance of a cold spell this winter, and they still seemed to be of that view when they updated their thoughts just before New Year.


We have all seen how much the model can flip-flop over the past fortnight or so. Also, assuming the SSW does occur as anticipated by some, it will likely be a while before the model runs we have access to start to factor the effects of it in to any real extent.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
stophe
19 January 2016 17:27:38


Winter 2015/16 Model Watching:


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That's nearly every year      any more jam ?        

Bertwhistle
19 January 2016 17:29:00

Look at the cold getting down into Egypt.


 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_120_mslp850.png?cb=440


and then the balm of spring over the UK!


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_348_uk2mtmp.png?cb=332


 


 


 


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gandalf The White
19 January 2016 17:39:02


Winter 2015/16 Model Watching:


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Surely a closer analogy would be a seed on the end of the stick together with some confusing instructions on how it might possibly be turned into a vegetable but without any idea what kind of vegetable or when it might be ready to eat.....


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bertwhistle
19 January 2016 17:43:12


 


Surely a closer analogy would be a seed on the end of the stick together with some confusing instructions on how it might possibly be turned into a vegetable but without any idea what kind of vegetable or when it might be ready to eat.....


 



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Actually there needs to be a self-enlarging hammer hidden behind the carrot.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gandalf The White
19 January 2016 17:49:45


 


Not quite. The tropical air moved north eastwards and has helped potent low weather systems to form off Newfoundland and traverse westwards smashing the greenie block. 


Originally Posted by: soperman 


I'm pretty sure that Alex moved north towards Iceland and was absorbed into the low pressure system sitting south of Iceland.  It didn't transport heat to Newfoundland, which is 1,000 upstream.


The predicted block over Greenland was overstated by the models. The pattern wasn't helped by short wave energy heading west from Svalbard, which wasn't picked up until later - another in a long list of examples of short wave developments wrecking a promising long wave pattern.


Current output doesn't look like delivering cold weather at the moment but then neither did it just before Xmas....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
19 January 2016 17:49:58

Quite a few HP options for the start of February , still a month to look forward to

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
19 January 2016 17:50:06

And to top it all, up to 192 ENS snoozefest

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Not really, several of them are spawning northern blocking and several members are trying to brew an easterly. This one does it in style just two days later:


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9832/gens-12-0-240_kmz9.png


Here's one on day 9, just one day after your 192 cut-off!


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4151/gens-18-0-216_fdy2.png


Here's another one, on day 12:


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1885/gens-19-0-288_nqo6.png


You get the idea. There's a great deal of scatter, of course, but you can see why the pros aren't throwing their weight behind a persistently mild, wet and windy outlook!

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
19 January 2016 17:55:56


 


Not really, several of them are spawning northern blocking and several members are trying to brew an easterly. This one does it in style just two days later:


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9832/gens-12-0-240_kmz9.png


Here's one on day 9, just one day after your 192 cut-off!


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4151/gens-18-0-216_fdy2.png


Here's another one, on day 12:


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1885/gens-19-0-288_nqo6.png


You get the idea. There's a great deal of scatter, of course, but you can see why the pros aren't throwing their weight behind a persistently mild, wet and windy outlook!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agreed Darren , blocking is definately about in the ENS

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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