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Gooner
20 January 2016 17:51:19


 


Certainly looks that way. Shame GFS has been less than reliable during this month. Either way it's good to see an FI trending to cold with each run 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Trouble is that is the 6z, I'm guessing the 12z wont be as cold

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 January 2016 17:55:03

12z ens for London have a several snow rows later on . Still a scrambled mess and alot of uncertainty

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


briggsy6
20 January 2016 18:18:48

Just enjoyed two beautiful sunny days down here. Shame there's a change in the offing on Friday.

Location: Uxbridge
nsrobins
20 January 2016 18:48:30


Just enjoyed two beautiful sunny days down here. Shame there's a change in the offing on Friday.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Wrong thread. Please confine reality and hard facts to the appropriate threads and leave this one for wild speculation and divination 😉😎


Still huge divergence at 144hrs such that basically all options are possible. Actually the ECM this evening has some cut-off energy dropping through Denmark that could trigger a build if heights GFS 06Z style if the charts went beyond 240.


As one or two posters maintain, I wouldn't rule out a huge flip to cold in the medium term. Unlikely yes but not impossible.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Bertwhistle
20 January 2016 18:52:42


12z ens for London have a several snow rows later on . Still a scrambled mess and alot of uncertainty


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes it is messy.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=595


The spread seems to sit more below the 850 zero than above.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Scandy 1050 MB
20 January 2016 18:56:15


 


Wrong thread. Please confine reality and hard facts to the appropriate threads and leave this one for wild speculation and divination 😉😎


Still huge divergence at 144hrs such that basically all options are possible. Actually the ECM this evening has some cut-off energy dropping through Denmark that could trigger a build if heights GFS 06Z style if the charts went beyond 240.


As one or two posters maintain, I wouldn't rule out a huge flip to cold in the medium term. Unlikely yes but not impossible.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Good post, couldn't agree more - doesn't seem like the last November / December charts somehow - both GFS (earlier run) and now ECM show the chance of something interesting not too far away. Would not be surprised to see further swings in the coming days, although the slug with the blowtorch is an option it's far from certain it will be the correct one.

Zubzero
20 January 2016 19:10:10

You know it's bad for cold when no one has posted about the ECM run 


That's some cold pool to the east atm http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016012012/ECM0-0.GIF?20-0 


Pity the Atlantic has other ideas http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016012012/ECM1-144.GIF?20-0 

Gooner
20 January 2016 19:26:36

Have to say its a real search for some cold .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 January 2016 19:31:05

It's ok , I have found some cold


In march






J F F  Of course

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2016 20:04:29


Have to say its a real search for some cold .


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Surely P5 is worth an honourable mention JFF.



That would give the Kent contingent bragging rights for years...


 

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
David M Porter
20 January 2016 20:16:45

ECM 12z 240hr chart looks to me as though it might be trying to move the Azores High north-eastwards, and possibly form a link with the HP to the east of Scandinavia.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
20 January 2016 20:22:13


ECM 12z 240hr chart looks to me as though it might be trying to move the Azores High north-eastwards, and possibly form a link with the HP to the east of Scandinavia.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I think many of us saw that but were scared to put the kiss of death on it.


Thanks anyway David


 


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
20 January 2016 20:28:25

Does anybody have any objections if I take a 5 day break from model watching. The current charts are woeful. Perhaps when I return on Sunday things may have changed ? It worked last time.  

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
20 January 2016 20:31:07


Does anybody have any objections if I take a 5 day break from model watching. The current charts are woeful. Perhaps when I return on Sunday things may have changed ? It worked last time.  


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I was going to make the suggestion Steve.  Just be careful about timing your return, as you clearly affected the depth of the current cold spell.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
20 January 2016 20:34:06


Does anybody have any objections if I take a 5 day break from model watching. The current charts are woeful. Perhaps when I return on Sunday things may have changed ? It worked last time.  


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Phew !


Thanks Steve

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SJV
20 January 2016 20:36:09


Does anybody have any objections if I take a 5 day break from model watching. The current charts are woeful. Perhaps when I return on Sunday things may have changed ? It worked last time.  


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Taking one for the team. Top man! 


 


Gusty
20 January 2016 20:38:28


 


I was going to make the suggestion Steve.  Just be careful about timing your return, as you clearly affected the depth of the current cold spell.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Fair enough. I'll give it a full week. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gusty
20 January 2016 20:41:49

The things I do for you lot ! .


I will do you all a deal. If we do get a decent easterly I would like it named after me.


Maybe something like 'Gusty's Gusset Chiller' 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



cultman1
20 January 2016 20:52:09

Lets face it, from what I read on this forum its going to be mild all the way now right out to mid Febuary at the earliest. It may not be as wet or mild  as December and early January but  any potential cold spell has literally evaporated and we are back to our usual SW mild winter rubbish with 12-14 degrees for the South at least. .

Sinky1970
20 January 2016 20:54:28
I know quite a few time's in the past snow has fallen around my birthday, that being early March which i know is quite a while away but can be a very active & vulnerable time for a heavy snowfall/s, i'm not saying we have will have to wait till then for something, but, if things get stuck in the atlantic rut, we may well have to.
Whether Idle
20 January 2016 20:54:44


The things I do for you lot ! .


I will do you all a deal. If we do get a decent easterly I would like it named after me.


Maybe something like 'Gusty's Gusset Chiller' 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Wall's Willy Waver

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
White Meadows
20 January 2016 20:58:33
Some tasty looking output better raise its head soon if we're to expect cold in line with what met office wrote about in November.

Otherwise I fear we maybe staring down the barrel of a February euro slug, or even worse a Barty. A strong possibility with the predicted vortex pattern.

I think I'm going to throw up!
SJV
20 January 2016 21:05:10


Lets face it, from what I read on this forum its going to be mild all the way now right out to mid Febuary at the earliest. It may not be as wet or mild  as December and early January but  any potential cold spell has literally evaporated and we are back to our usual SW mild winter rubbish with 12-14 degrees for the South at least. .


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


You must be posting this to get a reaction. Who on here has said its going to be mild until mid-February? 


nsrobins
20 January 2016 21:28:27


Does anybody have any objections if I take a 5 day break from model watching. The current charts are woeful. Perhaps when I return on Sunday things may have changed ? It worked last time.  


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


I've packed your bag and included underwear for at least a week.
I've even included hold allowance on your ticket

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
20 January 2016 21:31:16


Lets face it, from what I read on this forum its going to be mild all the way now right out to mid Febuary at the earliest. It may not be as wet or mild  as December and early January but  any potential cold spell has literally evaporated and we are back to our usual SW mild winter rubbish with 12-14 degrees for the South at least. .


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Where have you read that ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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