I for one have no problem with that ...............around the 10th Feb

GFS18z brings back the blowtorch this weekend to much of the country!

Blowtorch followed by "Cold Zonality"

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012018/gfs-0-204.png?18 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012018/gfs-1-204.png?18 

Not sure anyone wants a return to this

The run is already wrong as the mild air that is just at the tip of the West Country hasn't spread in as quickly as the 18z suggested this evening 

All the models suggest and after reading Met O updates and watching Tomasz Schaf's week ahead forecast - says it all really. Remember disruptive snowfall' was forecasted last weekend - this has now become a freezing rain event and only for Scotland. He also concluded that there will be no return to colder weather!"  - At least for the next 10 days.

I'm off to India so snow can wait until March

Not disastrous, could of been a lot worse, there might be some wet white stuff around the 3rd of Feb, but we all know that these charts won't look anything like this come the morning, so don't lose any sleep over them.

Im predicting an Easterly

Tally

In 10 days time its January 30th ........................a long way from the middle of Feb

Lets just settle for this shall we

I don't see how, on one hand, you're berating the accuracy of a forecast made a few days before the event, whilst on the other hand, being confident in a forecast for weather in 3-4 weeks time!  

Taken and BANKED ☺☺

Tally, disruptive snow was not forecast for this week, it was mentioned as a possibility. IIRC the comment was "something to keep an eye on".

ECM 12z ensemble for London:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Still a sizeable cluster predicting rather cold conditions from the middle of next week, sufficient to pull the mean back to near average once we get through this milder period.

Might get a chance to mow the lawn soon if it dries up a bit.lol.

Best watch out for the non hibernating Frogs.

Might be as well to run them over as it doesn't look like the winter is going to cull em?.

Bring on an Easterly.

I remember mowing the lawn sometime last year and saw a frog jump out of the long wet grass.. I was a bit cautious to resume as I didn't want to slice it up.. lol.

A quick skeg at the models confirms a generally mild picture, if not very mild over the weekend with long fetch SSW winds. 

High pressure exerts enough influence across the south to keep things fairly dry here and would present an occasional risk of frost and fog but no real cold for some time.

Indeed. Wettest/unsettled in the N and W but all areas experiencing periods of fronts spreading E. Some hill snow in the N at times too and all in all, very much in line with the MetO extended forecasts from a few days ago.

I often see this type of pattern eventually lead to a deep Scandi trough and a N'ly plunge. With hints of height rises to the W of the UK, this is where I see the next cold period initiating. IMHO

It could quickly return in the ENS. I'll be watching very closely in the next couple of weeks because I've always been doubtful about the likelihood of a substantial cold spell (although I think we will see colder conditions for a time) this Feb and that was reflected in the TWO winter forecast. I'm not claiming to have a crystal ball but a lot of the expectations on the forums seem to be based on the MetO suggestion of a backloaded El Nino winter. I think the evidence for this is tenuous during a strong El Nino event and even more so if March and April are excluded and the focus is on the meteorological winter. 

The consistency in the output this morning for the rest of January (particularly with regard to the vortex) is amply demonstrated by the similarity between the GFS and even the NAVGEM .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1801.gif

My thoughts exactly Brian, people have read to much into the back loaded winter thing.

The best comparison for this winter is the strong ElNino winter of 1998 which brought some record warmth in February and IMO a long fetch south westerly with a super Bartlett is more likely than a easterly with cold and snow next month.

Just my opinion but I really think we should manage our expectations and expect little cold weather next month.

Andy