Indeed and quite interesting knock on effects for Spring here- if it continues dry in Spain and Portugal then the first plume could help temps rise in UK notably should the winds turn long fetch S-SSW.

I'm not sure what the hope was with this one - colder flows off the Atlantic or the hope that it would lead to more blocking ? Either way the Nino and the PV have taken care of matters.

The hope was that a NW flow would bring cool temperatures and hill snow. But there have been no prevalent NW fetches this winter, so the cold pool has been "wasted".

I have given up on this winter - one for the rubbish bin!

All I will say here wrt those about to write obituaries for this winter is that it may be an idea to wait at least another three weeks or so before doing this. The models don't look great for cold at the moment, yes, but there again they didn't at New Year and we still got a colder few days a week or so ago.

As long as the MetO stick by their line of a colder second half of Feb and possibly beyond, I for one will not give up hope of a change. February doesn't even start until a week from today, let's not forget.

The GEFS line graph for the Inverness location can be (or should be) a good indicator of a cold northerly, but I wonder if there's a problem with the coordinates that are programmed into the chart generator. The town is at sea level, but the snow row is painting a fairly extreme picture! I can't see where to check the programmed latitude/longitude. The correct coordinates are: 57.4773N, 4.2249W (Town Hall). Could someone who has access to the raw data please check and correct if necessary. It would be much appreciated. 

Oh. I was hoping to log in here this morning & see the hints of encouragement from yesterday had blossomed into a cold NW'ly flow bringing spells of snow.

Harrumph.

I have long though that a real Bartlett HP was normally centred right over France with pressire over the Azores a bit lower. That's why I mentioned earlier that December's set-up was IMO more Bartlett-esque that what is being shown by the models for the near future (pressure was often lower over the Azores during Dec than is currently being shown by the models).

Although ECM shows pressure remaining high to the south on the 00z run, it does show it weakenening slightly as we go through the run. Even if everyone else writes off February at this time, as long as the MetO don't then neither will I.

I think only a major strat event in the right place will turn this Winter around (GFS still showing one for the 5th Feb but no guarantee), otherwise looking an awful lot like 1998 at the moment - with the exception being the slug is forecast in a different alignment to 1998 so not as warm at the moment.

As you rightly say not even February yet so a chance of a cold spell, but this El Nino has now matched the strength of the 1998 one so logically the chances of a similar weather pattern have increased most probably. As in Gavin P's El Nino update video yesterday, the long range JMA seems to agree on that (of course LRF's can't be trusted and are JFF) with a cold April if it has the pattern right. Perhaps more disturbing is the transition to La Nina from El Nino based on past years seems to mean a rubbish summer for the UK too - unless La Nina doesn't happen, then the chances of a 2003 type Summer increase substantially but that's rare to not go to La Nina from such a strong El Nino it seems.

Back to MO output this morning as other people have commented really quite poor if cold weather is what you are after, at best the odd 1 day North westerly on the GEM so slim pickings indeed this morning.

You can plot any location on this page:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs-map-selector.aspx

The direct link to 57, -4 is:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs-charts-selected.aspx?lat_5=57&lon_5=-4

UKMO 120, fronts and approximate location of the 850hpa -5C isotherm.

Saturday still looks pretty wintry.

Some half decent efforts of a northerly are being deflected with ease by a very stubborn Euro HP block

Tale of our recent winters.

back to the 3D charts on Meteociel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=44.25&lon=320.5&ech=194.87&zoom=6 

Click on Anim... then increase the speed.

This gives an excellent wave pattern of why we are seeing the weather we are seeing now.  Speeding it up helps "Feel" the situation better.

Feels very similar to 2013/14

This would surprise a few J F F of course

The models may not be showing what some members wish to see, but that's not an excuse to clutter this thread with off topic musings.

Please refrain..............  

edit: posted prior to previous post

Wouldn't suprise me at all - heavy snow stopping 5 miles north of here with us getting nothing but rain ...... 

If it happens then you would need to be pretty high up to see anything worthwhile, heavy wet snow at 4C doesn't really float my boat.

If we can get the arctic high and canadian high talking this could get very interesting. Trend to raise canadian/baffin heights over time in line with the metoffice forecast of pm incursions becoming more frequent and more northerly over time.

Apart from Daniel, there seems very little posting of the 12z charts.

Time for me to check myself. This bodes well  

Edit: Could there be a scandi trough or two

GFS 12z and 06z at 240hrs - spot the difference. Such boring model watching atm, same stuff every run even in FI 

Yes Fothergill, zonality brings consistency from the NWP out to days 9/10 and even beyond.

UKMO saturday, fronts and approximate 850hpa -5C isotherm.