Louise Lear going for lengthier cold spells so will be interesting to see what happens, she see keen on the jet sinking South

With that weak signal for a slight southward extension of the Greenland High throwing the jet a little further south I suppose an extension to the cold spell is just about plausible for the north but still only a slim probability Marcus IMO.  

Even in such an event heights are largely maintained across Southern and Central Europe meaning that southern Britain may see temperatures fall back to the seasonal norm while northern areas get possibly more frequent transient snow events from colder zonality.

You must remember Steve we do not see all the data , L L will be basing her forecast on more than just GFS .................I think

FI looks pretty decent

We don't mate but we get a bloody good idea between 120-180 hours of what to expect. If the jet does undercut next week given the set up we have on Weds / Thurs..then hats off to them but even their UKMO is showing that high sinking at 144. 

Do you know what, LL lives about 100m from me. I might go and ask her exactly what she is basing her forecast, just so we can get it settled, once and for all.

If she didn't think I was a complete wierdo for doing so, that is.

There are some people who seem to think that the accuracy of the UKMO 144hr charts is open to debate. The UMKO runs didn't do too badly during the recent colder spell from what I recall.

Chop chop then

From IF

Essentially as per GloSea5: ie +ve MSLP anomalies building central N Atlantic (and perhaps Greenland) with -ve anomaly N/NE of UK into mid-month; temp anomalies thus trending neutral or -ve (more pronounced -ve signal in northern UK, inevitably in that regime); mean flow NW-N'ly. By tail-end of Feb the height/MSLP anomaly shifts E to lie generally more S of UK with resumption of broadly W'ly regime and upturn in temp anomaly. The mean fields of course mask typical spread evident in inspection of stamps and minority solutions (a few of which would be notably colder), but clear form horse at present remains notion of MSLP rises to W (& perhaps NW) and a phase of colder NW-N'lies around mid-month, as recently billed in UKMO outlooks.

I think we'd all be happy to see lengthier spells of Louise Lear

1) Go to AccuWeather Pro

2) Enter your credit card details

3) Click on ECMWF > Monthly control

4) Choose Europe, then pick a parameter of your choice

5) Click through the charts

6) Cancel your membership, then enjoy access to the ECM-32 control run for another 4 weeks!

Simple, really.

(And FWIW, the ECM-32 control from yesterday shows a generally chilly outlook, as opposed to a cold one - NW'lies interspersed with the odd SW'ly, then an easterly on the 19th which turns into a high over the UK for a few days, followed by more NW'lies towatds the month end).

Not a lot of change this morning other than more runs showing a stormy period from day 8 onwards. The +ve NAO remains and no sign of blocking in favourable places.

Morning all. A quite stormy period on offer then, lots of wind and rain with some bouts of wintry weather for Scotland at times. The crapfest continues

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb

Definitely going into a cooler /colder period

Oh indeed

Sums it up. Uppers are colder with time so a chance of wintryness at times in many places but as we know, this kind of set up screams "dry" in most sheltered places during the pm periods

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  Storm Gertrude is passing NE close to NW Scotland and pushing troughs East and South across the British Isles. Severe gale or storm force winds over the North will subside later today as the fronts become slow moving for a time across Southern England tonight reinvigorating for a time before clearing all areas tomorrow and leaving a cold WNW flow for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 3000-4000ft across Scotland and 7000ft over Southern Britain. The level will fall everywhere over the next 24 hours to range from under 2000ft in the North and 3000ft in the South. Snow showers will be frequent over the hills of the North tonight and tomorrow will appreciable falls and potential blizzards over the Cairngorns for a time tonight

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the complete two week period. It's positioning lies across the UK for the next 3-4 days before a change of orientation later takes it on a more SE course towards the South of the UK leaving the UK in or on the western flank of a deep trough in the flow later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows continued disturbed and often very windy weather with severe gales at times, bands of heavy rain and wintry showers all driven in with association of repetitive deep Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic close to or over the North of the UK with just brief ridges of High pressure giving short drier and brighter interludes with a frost now and again. Some snowfall is likely at times across the North and maybe on the hills of the South too at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. Slight changes are indicated very late in the run as High pressure builds towards Scandinavia finally blocking the passage of Low pressure to the East and splitting the flow North and South leaving the UK in quieter and benign conditions by day 15.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a lot of range this morning at day 14. The common theme is the loss of High pressure to the South and placing it well out in the Atlantic West of the Azores. Winds are shown between West and NW from most members with gales and spells of rain and wintry showers likely with wintry showers and rather cold conditions for many. Some extremes suggest severe gales with a sizeable cluster showing Low pressure  to the SE and a North or NE flow across the UK with High pressure out in the mid Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled conditions continuing through next week with another stormy day on Monday in strong to severe gale WNW winds and rain then wintry showers, a theme looking like being repeated further later in the week with just the briefest of drier interludes too especially in the South. Temperatures will be fairly academic in the wind but should range from near average to rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show series of troughs crossing the UK from the West through the period with alternating wet and windy spells with sunshine and showers, wintry on hills. Last night's release shown High pressure close to the SW indicated on last night's 96hr chart, this has been modified on today's 84hr chart reducing the risk of a drier spell midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run it winds up deep Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK which is shown in no hurry to leave our shores all the time maintaining wet and windy weather with showers as well, wintry on hill as the weather turns rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the wet and windy spell continuing with severe gales at times early in the period. Later next week Low pressure is expected to realign nearer to the UK, indeed over us for the most parts with further rain or perhaps snow in places as colder air seeps South within the flow of this and other depressions late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today shows very unsettled weather across all parts of the UK over the next 10 days, deepening further later in the period as very deep Low pressure anchors across the UK with lots of rain and thundery and wintry showers commonplace a week or so from now. Severe gale or even storm force winds early in the period may give way somewhat later as the Low centre's become more UK placed but colder air later could well increase the risk of some snowfall almost anywhere in showery form.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a similar pattern to that of the operational at the 10 day time point with very unsettled and windy weather looking the most likely set-up with Low pressure close by or over the UK and the winds still predominating from a Westerly point but based from a more Northerly source than lately especially for the South of the UK so possibly rather colder for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.2 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 49.5 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The model output this morning does look quite troubling for those folks that don't like severe weather events because it looks likely that all parts of the UK could experience severe weather of one sort or another over the coming two weeks. Right now some very severe winds are buffeting the North of Scotland with lesser effects further South too as storm Gertrude passes by to the North. Then after a brief rest tomorrow and rain on Sunday a repeat performance of severe gales looks likely on Monday. The culprit of all this wild weather is of course the Jet stream which is currently remarkably strong 40000ft above our heads and until that eases changes will be small. Later next week changes do look likely but it is debateable whether it will mean better weather for us in the UK. It does look like the flow will dip South of the UK as well as turning on a more NW to SE course. This will allow pressure to fall across the UK to very low levels and it is likely that from late next week on Low pressure will lie across the UK with further spells of rain and showers. With this new positioning of Low pressure and a Jet stream by then to the South there is a strong chance that things will turn generally colder and some of the precipitation could fall as snow especially on hills and not just in the North. So there really is an awful lot going on above our heads over the next few weeks and the weather we receive as a result is far from unexciting for weather enthusiasts. So it's a case of batten down the hatches for some weather disruption over the next few weeks be it from rain, gales or snow, thunder, lightning and hail it's all possible and it's best not to get hung up on day to day details at the moment and while I might not be offering snow armageddon this morning I wouldn't be surprised that given a week or so a surprise fall of snow could occur almost anywhere. I'm taking a day off tomorrow so I will be back on Sunday with another look at where the weather takes us in the following two weeks.      

Next Update Sunday January 31st 2016 from 09:00

Only if the high moves over the UK.. otherwise the weather would be the same as now, just a bit milder.

It doesn't look too wet to me though.. not here anyway. Mostly showery buy some sunshine too.. 

GFS deep fi has a cold and blocked feel to it.

Yes, 7C and rain rather than 14c and rain is the outlook for many, I would rather have a Feb 98 type set-up to be honest.

Later on, Euro heights don't look like returning but the NAO remains steadfastly +ve, so typical with this winter's teleconnections in recent years.

It does.... the first signs of the impact of the early Feb strat warming event (which has been modelled consistently for a week or so) perhaps

The t+384 is interesting in the depth and extent of cold pushed across the Atlantic... Large pool of sub-10 850 air not too far west of Ireland, that and the sub-10 850 air approaching from the east.  FI, of course, but interesting nonetheless.

Midday GEFS. As I said yesterday I'd go for the Buchan period if I was forced to take a punt on the snow risk spreading southwards.