Liking the ECM and UKMO T120:

Very nice for Norway.  Lots of potential for the UK a well.

Things will eventually turn pretty nippy if the ECM 12z verifies, I must say!

For you yes,

Down here I don't think we will notice much difference.

Still no sign of northern blocking so the best we have is PM incursions, which may deliver for northern hills

ECM at 240 hrs actually looks remarkably similar to GFS at 240 hrs. Just backing everything west a few hundred miles makes everything go 

ECM:

GFS:

You will obviously be in bed then

I'm doing a bit of 'waiting and seeing' at the mo, as the models continue to toy around with the changes afoot both in the tropics and stratosphere.

With respect to the latter, it's amazing how well the current situation at 70 hPa corresponds to what's expected to evolve down at our level next week:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=8.38,73.24,315/loc=-26.332,48.238

It also shows how the stretching and sort-of-splitting is weakening the flow in some parts of the globe. Alas, not in our region! For us it's more about how that lobe is reaching increasingly far south (displacement still ongoing), which in time means that, as the strongest flow at the base of the stratosphere shifts south, so too will the addition of zonal momentum across the European sector - hence the jet dives down into Europe. Shame the pattern is too far west for the south to join in the fun within the first week or so, but what can you do.

It is possible for forcing from the tropics to override this, but as it happens, the MJO has ventured into phase 4, which corresponds to a pattern that lends support to the stratospheric pattern:

This is what I spent a week or so banging on about - it's allowing the west-based negative NAO pattern to emerge, albeit somewhat stutteringly in the current model output.

It gives us a decent starting point for the month, given that seasonal wavelength changes promote a shift east in areas of high pressure near or over Greenland. It wouldn't count for much if the vortex was to return to that area and regain strength, but the trend of the day has been away from such a scenario, with the vortex becoming very strained indeed through the second week of Feb. GFS has even dared to tease us with a split which really would put the cat among the pigeons.

It's seen at all levels, making it a major SSW, but the first signs take until day 12 to appear so you'd best make room for the truckload of salt that's needed when viewing this chart 

Except that even where you are, temps will likely be much lower than they have been for much of the time this season, especially in December. Even where I live, it reached about 13/14C last Sunday. At least that is what was forecast, and it sure felt like it.

Monday will be the last day for a while that many areas see double fugure temps if these runs verify, IMO.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

And it begins.

Long may it continue.

Briggsy6- I've just moved your post re Nick Miller's forecast across to the media thread. Please post all media related info in that thread from now on. Thanks.

ECM 12z ensemble for London looks solid out to Wednesday but all over the place after that.  Still a decent cluster going with colder conditions and nothing especially mild but hard to call what's going to happen a week from now.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

This looks interesting; look at the alignment of the high from the Grand Banks to Madeira; surely if maintained that could lead to an undercut and disrupt the pattern of lows in the general outlook?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=663

In the meantime, plenty of snow row action for the far north.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=81

As Peter said above, I think anything could happen from the latter half of next week. All over the place. In the main, I think GFS op runs have actually been pretty on the mark and better than ECM in the T192+ range.

Obviously a subjective point but to me it seems as though ECM is playing a little catch-up.

Well, unremitting crap until next Wednesday for the majority of folk (snow in Scotland tho ), then the models are all over the shop. Some very interesting model viewing in the next 48 hrs- seeing how post Wednesday is "resolved" could lead us into some stellar eye candy or more unremitting dross. The roller coaster begins.

Looking at this mornings output it reminds me of the lead up to the last so called cold spell when the UK through took ages to move east allowing northerly winds to push south.

The same is happening now with a delay in getting the northerly which isn't that cold anyway with little chance of longevity due to a lack of Northern blocking.

The MetO MRF sums it up, wet, windy and unsettled throughout, turning colder but really just average in the south, some snow in the north and then mild again by mid February. Yes it then talks about colder, drier weather in late February but talk about to little too late!

I still maintain that in true strong ElNino form February will be colder than January but only slightly below average if at all, as for a proper spell of cold, snowy weather I really would forget it if you live south of Manchester and even north of it snow and cold will be transient. 

Andy

Yes, while both models have had their good and bad moments ECM has consistently overdone any cold weather while GFS was always in the mild camp.

In reality it has been mild weather that has dominated this winter so GFS has been closer to verifying 9 times out of 10.

Andy

Depends upon one's viewpoint I think.

As far as I recall, GFS during the early part of the week just gone was for a while more insistent on pressure remaining high over France with more of a W/SW airstream across the UK and milder temperatures. ECM at the same time I think wanted to move the HP to the south further to the west to end up directly over the Azores, rather than over France, Spain etc as GFS was showing for a while.

Maybe, but IIRC it was GFS that was the first to suggest a major height rise over Greenland in successive op runs just over three weeks ago, which ultimately didn't come off. Yes, ECM did go with the same idea for a time also, but not for as long as GFS did.

I wouldn't say that GFS was exactly "top of the class" that week.

Not as crap as up here mate where I find myself too far south to enjoy Scotland's snow today but far enough north to endure the worst of the endless wind and rain!

This week has been a joke with a climate more like that of the Irish West Coast in December.

Bloody awful.

Andy

I'll see your Canary Islands and raise you a Saudi Arabia. Countrywide snowmaggedon is guaranteed :)

With regard to verification stats through this Winter ECM is the best at the 10 day phase while there has been much closer parity or even a few incidences when GFS has nudged ahead of ECM at the 5-8 day ranges. On the 1 day period there is just a tenth of 1 point difference between the big three while at 3 day ECM is usually best. I did note though that ECM did fall back around the time of the January cold snap. You can view the stats within my report daily here but for today only aim away from all but my iPhone so am not able to provide you with the stats link.