Quiet in here tonight

Just a hint of something more interesting in the GFS ens this evening:-

Falls roughly where the MetO forecasts are going for a quieter colder interlude so something to keep an eye on I guess.

Before then mobile, wet, windy with some wintry interludes for Scotland and maybe Northern England at times too. Looks significantly wet for the North West of the UK too, which won't be welcome.

Judging by the chart above they'll be some mild days down here but it's generally average by day but I suspect with warmer than average nights due to cloud and wind rather than 850's.

Nothing cold for London shown in the GEFS unless a touch of frost is now classed as cold.

Same story all winter, and as you say yet more rain for the north west http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016013112/240-777UK.GIF?31-12 

Though at least they have had some "weather"  in he north this winter with wind/rain and the odd bit of snow.  Imby it's been just one long ZZZZZZZ. Can only signal 1 day this winter with any notable weather, got don to -5C in the last so called cold spell in mid January.  

We had plenty of rain in December, but it certainly wasn't interesting. It was just a pain in the arse.

J F F Heavy snow for some

Wintry PPN which really is widespread

Hang in there Gooner it will be right one day 

I wonder if that Met Office forecast was based mostly on probabilistic rather than deterministic factors? because the probability of cold spells occurring in February are slightly higher than that of December & January anyway? If you look at mean monthly 850 hPa temps over the east N. Atlantic region, temps at that level fall over the 3 month period, going from being the highest in Dec and the lowest in Feb.

Pressure of 940mb heading to Greenland 12th Feb:

What will this named storm be then? 955mb? - Gosh far from settled even as we approach middle of Feb - at least some decent snow for Scottish ski resorts and Iceland doing well.

You're overstating things somewhat... 1/3 of runs appear to hit -8c 850s in second week..... Not exactly indicative of a major nailed-on freeze, but not 'nothing' either.  In general though, models very dismal today whether it's cold or mild you're looking for.

ECM 12z ensemble for London:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Good agreement of the general theme for the coming week.  The Op was in the mildest options for days 8-9 and still above the mean for day 10.  Beyond Day 10 the two main clusters offer average or cold conditions, leaving the mean a little below normal.  Very few mild options in the mix, even towards the end of the run.

They runs that show uppers below -5 or more for London are very brief and show little in the way of any sustained cold ,outside chance of a frost is the best on offer if you like cold.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016013118/graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres.gif 

I'd be surprised if they had any reliable deterministic output at that range; I think it's more likely to be ensemble data. I'm not sure what part the probabilistic side plays; not much in the 14 day outlook I doubt.

Very good performance by the NWP in the last 10 days. Mobile with a sinking jet and an increasing chance of a major wind event. The significant storm today affecting Scotland will likely be repeated several times in the outlook period and affect more of the UK.

Forget widespread cold and snow - that will not be the headline maker this week.

And I'm pretty sure it WILL get there eventually.  July?

GFS still going with the St Valentines BBQ in FI, indeed the chart for the 16th could bring 17c to London.

This IMO is a likely outcome and I am going for shirt sleeves in mid February rather than gloves and snowballs with a 1998 re run.

The only atmospheric analogy for winter 2015/16 is 1997/98 and for that reason i never brought the back loaded winter thing and the MetO now water it down with every update, meanwhile it's another grim day up north with a gale force westerly wind 11c and more rain.

Andy

It's an interesting point. Since autumn I've been saying you need to include March and Aprll for this relationship to hold much water. At the moment I'd not be surprised to see some amplification in the Atlantic collapsing across the UK second half of Feb.

I shall laugh my socks off when it is -2c max on 14th Feb. There is a major cold spell coming and it will start appearing in the model output by the end of this week.