Good post, SC.

Reminds me that this bit of the NE really is very lucky! I've lost count of the number of times I've seen charts like that where we escape more than pretty much everyone else on account of the Pennine rain shadow.

That's it because its a warm sector.

Lack of posts is the best guide yet that no snow is  on the way. I kind of agree with IF about this - many of us seem to be very one track at this time year, and end up ignoring some potentially interesting stormy weather in the next few days.

12z APERGE looks quite wet down here with up to 100mm over next few days. Looks like Feb could be the 4th notably wet month in a row. I think is even a longer wetter spell than 13/14.

It cant decide lol..................not good though

Damn it there is just no consistency with respect to the period Sat-Mon; the GFS 12z has made a fair bit more of the Saturday feature with stronger wind gusts, but the Monday system doesn't travel as efficiently toward us and is on the wane before it makes it across:

...yet UKMO has jumped into the vicious storm boat for Sunday, having held the system back to the west on the 00z:

Then for the 4-5 day period, we see some pretty big differences with the arrival and evolution of the LP that's just about sneaking into the above-left chart (bottom-left of it). It's stronger, resulting in a track further north from both UKMO and GFS. It therefore merges with a shortwave west of Iceland on the UKMO run and comes close on the GFS run.

The UKMO solution is better going forward, as it takes away the chance that the shortwave will merge with the next trough coming off the U.S. and give it the excuse needed to just power on east rather than disrupt as per the ECM 00z for example.

In the chart below, there's enough of a wedge of higher heights toward Greenland that the trough complex could have performed a slide SE, however that low exiting Canada via Newfoundland tips the balance the other way instead. 

- but very notably, the further reaches of the run manage to show it going the right way instead. 

GFS has been more amplified in lower-res compared to recent days, and a look at the MJO plots reveals why:

Finally, GEFS have picked up on the MJO progression through to phase 5 and beyond, and this is now feeding into the GFS runs with added amplification as the AAM is boosted.

I should like to see less dithering about in phase 4 beforehand, but beggars can't be choosers... 

Horrific 12z runs thus far, as is usually the case with this pattern, the jet ends up further North when the events come within T120.

Indeed. just when even I was thinking we might get something interesting, the jet veers north again. You couldn't make it up. It torture for cold weather fans!

A definite upturn towards milder/unsettled weather from GEFS:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

A snow risk for some from the ECM 12z.

Agreed.  i see the Siberian high making an appearance  - I won't be bothering my arse to track October snow cover this year as that was a waste of time....

Looking at the GFS ensembles for Aberdeen, at the 12th Feb on the 0z, just about every member was below the 30yr average, and that had been a trend for a while.  on the 12z nearly all are above.  I suggest this run will not be particularly helpful, esp as so different to ECM.

This is the key issues though. Of course, it is easier to pay less attention to an isolated op run but GFS has literally done a major flip and therefore CANNOT be ignored.

Are the Euros going to play catch up?

Is GFS now reacting to the effects of the SSW and has adjusted the trend first?

Is GFS being too progressive?

Or..... has Maunder Minimum's proclaimed GFS flip now happened... only to go the way that nobody wanted?

cant believe some even believe the bags were ever opened? ...u certainly wouldn't need your hat and gloves! 

The ECM 192 hour 500 Hpa chart at face value looks loaded with potential.

Overlay the 850Hpa temps and the lack of deep cold now to our east and north is telling.

indeed and that's the fear, if we do tap into a decent set up then just how much cold is left to play with? Perhaps cold zonality is the best we can now hope for with barely three weeks of winter left. 

Exactly. It was only 5 (and a bit) years ago that the right set-up in late November brought air cold enough to give us one of the best winter spells in living memory. It didn't take long - a few days tops - for the freezing air to advect southwards. Just need that right set-up...

LP pulling colder air in, wintry ppn will be around

Could be some decent wintry ppn for Northern areas