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Essan
06 February 2016 10:53:58


More interestingly from a PPOV is whether we're now in a period when the chances of cold winters are reduced and warmer summers increased. My 'gut feel' is we stand a better than average chance of heatwave conditions this summer.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I agree.   In fact, I would not be surprised to see records broken this summer - either hottest day or hottest month.  Though this does not mean 3 months of 30c+ with a thunderstorm every night

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gooner
06 February 2016 10:54:33


In the meantime we have things like this to endure or analyse...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


And, colours can be deceptive, this could (if it actually materialised, which is unikely) be one of the coldest nights of the winter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Could well be

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hippydave
06 February 2016 11:00:55


In the meantime we have things like this to endure or analyse...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


And, colours can be deceptive, this could (if it actually materialised, which is unikely) be one of the coldest nights of the winter http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed


Next Friday/Saturday is looking chilly and wintry around the coasts:-




Not to mention 3 or 4 separate wind events for some of the country before that, which given location will probably be enough for some disruption. Monday is actually looking a little windier than a few days ago:-



All in all 'disappointing' if you were expecting the charts to show a cold spell for some odd reason but other than that there's at least some interesting weather on display.


Looking further afield and there's also a fair bit of HP about in the 6z run, which would bring some much needed respite from the wind and rain. 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 February 2016 11:32:13




I agree.   In fact, I would not be surprised to see records broken this summer - either hottest day or hottest month.  Though this does not mean 3 months of 30c+ with a thunderstorm every night


Originally Posted by: Essan 


It is of course a brave thing to wonder out loud, but it has crossed my mind too. We have an SST and NAO pattern that feels much more like the 1990s than the past few years, and a pretty consistent pattern of lows over Greenland. In summer that would be conducive to Azores high ridging.


But even the 90s had their fair share of poor summers. Just one ingredient among many. I do suspect the chances of another very warm summer on the continent must be higher than normal. Bear in mind last summer may have been mixed in the UK but in France and Germany it was almost as hot and dry as 2003 and much of the continent was patched yellow from June to August.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
marting
06 February 2016 11:58:38
Certainly a colder 06z run with some southern blocking resulting in some colder days! All change again I imagine for the 12z!
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gray-Wolf
06 February 2016 12:03:07

I think the whole of the Valley are on tenter-hooks every depression fired our way so any respite from the constant onslaught would be grand!


As the season drags on we are at least the side of the year that starts to push the Jet ever more north ( average position) so maybe we can see the depressions track ever north taking their watery cargo with them? Better still allow the Azores high to ridge out toward us and shunt any weather around its NW flank???


As for summer?? Please god not another washout!!!! Two 2 week heatwaves in June and late July would be nice?

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Solar Cycles
06 February 2016 12:07:08




I agree.   In fact, I would not be surprised to see records broken this summer - either hottest day or hottest month.  Though this does not mean 3 months of 30c+ with a thunderstorm every night


Originally Posted by: Essan 

I highly doubt it as summer is as absent as winter cold.

Solar Cycles
06 February 2016 12:08:14


I think the whole of the Valley are on tenter-hooks every depression fired our way so any respite from the constant onslaught would be grand!


As the season drags on we are at least the side of the year that starts to push the Jet ever more north ( average position) so maybe we can see the depressions track ever north taking their watery cargo with them? Better still allow the Azores high to ridge out toward us and shunt any weather around its NW flank???


As for summer?? Please god not another washout!!!! Two 2 week heatwaves in June and late July would be nice?


Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

Can we add May to those months please.😁

Bertwhistle
06 February 2016 12:10:38


More interestingly from a PPOV is whether we're now in a period when the chances of cold winters are reduced and warmer summers increased. My 'gut feel' is we stand a better than average chance of heatwave conditions this summer.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Some factors that might otherwise reduce the chances may have been taken care of; will the SSTs to the S and E start off the season, for example, higher than usual do you think, reducing sea breeze effects along some coasts?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gray-Wolf
06 February 2016 12:20:06


Can we add May to those months please.😁


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


3 weeks in May it is!

Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Gooner
06 February 2016 12:53:27

Certainly not to be sniffed at people






Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
06 February 2016 12:55:21

Followed by


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Fothergill
06 February 2016 13:37:07


It is of course a brave thing to wonder out loud, but it has crossed my mind too. We have an SST and NAO pattern that feels much more like the 1990s than the past few years, and a pretty consistent pattern of lows over Greenland. In summer that would be conducive to Azores high ridging.


But even the 90s had their fair share of poor summers. Just one ingredient among many. I do suspect the chances of another very warm summer on the continent must be higher than normal. Bear in mind last summer may have been mixed in the UK but in France and Germany it was almost as hot and dry as 2003 and much of the continent was patched yellow from June to August.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


I may be wrong but I don't think we have a good track record of warm dry summers after a strong winter El Nino, I've heard this mentioned a few times. Also we've had a run of fairly decent summers of late so maybe we're due a poor one. Just my hunch

Gooner
06 February 2016 13:51:02


 


I may be wrong but I don't think we have a good track record of warm dry summers after a strong winter El Nino, I've heard this mentioned a few times. Also we've had a run of fairly decent summers of late so maybe we're due a poor one. Just my hunch


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


I think Gav pointed this out in one of his vids

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 February 2016 14:14:56


 


I may be wrong but I don't think we have a good track record of warm dry summers after a strong winter El Nino, I've heard this mentioned a few times. Also we've had a run of fairly decent summers of late so maybe we're due a poor one. Just my hunch


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Summer 1983 wasn't bad.


The correlation between UK weather and ENSO in summer is almost non existent, I'd look instead at North Atlantic SST, and persistence 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
nsrobins
06 February 2016 14:17:38
Although there isn't too much to grab hold of above the background noise, it's fair to say there has been a small shift towards MLB in recent output with a few members teasing us again with a continental influence going past Day 10.

It's something of nothing at this stage but at the very least it generates some interest.

In the here and now, plenty of rain and wind and wintry potential up North this week.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2016 14:23:05

Phil Avery just now suggesting 70-80mph gusts for the South on Monday. That would be the biggest Storm of the winter for this region but it has not been named I find that quite odd. Maybe they will name it tonight who knows?


 


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
06 February 2016 15:17:51


 


I may be wrong but I don't think we have a good track record of warm dry summers after a strong winter El Nino, I've heard this mentioned a few times. Also we've had a run of fairly decent summers of late so maybe we're due a poor one. Just my hunch


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


last summer was overall nothing special... barring a few exceptionally warm nights it was quite poor for heat. 


And yes I do remember that one suspicious hot July day that some had.

springsunshine
06 February 2016 15:38:42


 


I may be wrong but I don't think we have a good track record of warm dry summers after a strong winter El Nino, I've heard this mentioned a few times. Also we've had a run of fairly decent summers of late so maybe we're due a poor one. Just my hunch


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Fothergill, where have you been spending the last 9 summers?? either that or you are very easily pleased.There have been no decent summers since 2006 and 2 hot(ish) julys in 2013 and 2014 don't make decent summers.


We are actually overdue a decent summer as in warm/dry/sunny with 2 or 3 prolonged heatwaves.


I guess in Wales a week without rain between June and August constitutes a decent summer

picturesareme
06 February 2016 16:04:36


 


Fothergill, where have you been spending the last 9 summers?? either that or you are very easily pleased.There have been no decent summers since 2006 and 2 hot(ish) julys in 2013 and 2014 don't make decent summers.


We are actually overdue a decent summer as in warm/dry/sunny with 2 or 3 prolonged heatwaves.


I guess in Wales a week without rain between June and August constitutes a decent summer


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


2014 (could have been 13) had a decent June and July, with an average August.

Fothergill
06 February 2016 16:11:36


Fothergill, where have you been spending the last 9 summers?? either that or you are very easily pleased.There have been no decent summers since 2006 and 2 hot(ish) julys in 2013 and 2014 don't make decent summers.


We are actually overdue a decent summer as in warm/dry/sunny with 2 or 3 prolonged heatwaves.


I guess in Wales a week without rain between June and August constitutes a decent summer


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


They weren't great but compared to the washout summers of 2007-2012 the summers here since have been something of an improvement. Maybe after those dreadful summers anything better seems good in comparison. The one consistent theme seems to the terrible Augusts, can't remember the last warm sunny August (since 2003). And you're right on the last bit 

sunny coast
06 February 2016 16:13:19
We are long overdue a decent August the last hot August was 2003 , in this area 2009 was dry but the rest have been cool and unsettled at some downright wet especially last year here
Ally Pally Snowman
06 February 2016 16:21:37

Monday looking vicious in the south. As I say surprised this storm hasn't been named!


 


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/45h.htm


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
06 February 2016 16:38:34
Can people stay on topic and keep discussion to current model output please. This comment excludes the post above by Ally, which is relevant to discussion in here.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
06 February 2016 16:58:50
Some snow chances for places next week and not just the usual suspects though they're still favoured in these kind of set ups. There could be some surprise snowfalls anywhere North of the M4 during the coming week and into next weekend IMO.

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