Well you've been the most optimistic of any of us and the charts are certainly improving from a coldies perspective so you never know. Here's hoping!

Can I bank that one please Gooner! Nothing like the Beeb/Meto forecast though.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A Showery WSW flow will be replaced by an occluded front s crossing east over the UK tonight in association with Storm 'Imogen' moving across Northern areas tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies around 4000ft rising briefly to 5000ft or so for a time tonight ahead of the passage of an occluded front. Snow is likely across Northern hills in particular today and probably again tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains generally very strong over the next two weeks. the main angle of attack from it still remains South of the UK over the next week before the flow eases a little more North for a time across the UK before troughing South again late in the period over the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains a very changeable and sometimes volatile period as successive deep Low pressure areas move across the Atlantic and the UK each bringing it's own spell of gales and rain followed by more showery conditions. Temperatures will remain near average or a little below in the drier and brighter phases between the weather systems and some snowfall can be expected at times mostly on Northern hills but not exclusively so especially later.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with rain and showers around on most days and while gales or even severe gales are likely through Week 1 the theme of a slow transition to drier conditions at times in the South is shown as Low pressure slowly moves to a more Northerly latitude through the second week with High pressure to the South having at least some influence down here at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show nearly all members with winds between SW and NW over the UK in 14 days with unsettled conditions with rain at times still the main focus of the weather. The degree of extent of High pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure close to the North remains the main focal differences between members.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows another wet and Atlantic driven weather pattern to come again over the coming week with gales or severe gales and heavy rain at times as Low pressure areas continue to move across the Atlantic and over the South of the UK with Wednesday currently the only day which looks like a much quieter if colder and dry day for many

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today also show unsettled conditions this week with multiple troughs and Low pressure areas bringing gales, rain and showers across the UK at times with snow possible especially on Northern hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows wet weather the main feature as the UK remains under deep Low pressure areas throughout much of the period with just very short periods between weather systems when the weather may improve slightly from an other wise wet and windy spell with snow at times over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain alternating with showers across the UK with only very short periods of quieter weather in between systems.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows a very unsettled spell to come over the next week with deep Low pressure areas totally dominant over or near the UK with rain or showers at times and snow on hills. The winds will also remain very strong at times though there will be some less windy periods mixed in too when it will be rather cold with some snowfall possible over the hills. The unsettled cycle does appear to break by Day 10 as High pressure steadily builds North through the Atlantic and bringing a cold Northerly across the UK for a time late in the period with wintry showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows a bias towards a NW flow between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the NW with the Jet stream flooding SE just to the SW of the UK giving further rain and showers across the UK with snow on hills and temperatures near to average overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to maintain volatile and windy Low pressure based conditions across the UK with just various unsubstantiated escape routes to the pattern hinted at later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.5 pts to 65.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 49.7 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There remains little overall relief from the models this morning in what is becoming the most Atlantic dominated Winter that I have seen for many years. The main difference at the moment is the position of the Jet Stream which has migrated further South recently and allowed deep Low pressure areas to affect the South as much as the North which up until now has seen the worst of the wrath that such storms have thrown at us. This week sees little overall in the change of patterning so we have to expect more of the same I'm afraid with rain and gales still a large feature of the weather. Winds will be a notable feature especially tomorrow over the South as storm 'Imogen' moves across the North and delivers the potential for storm force winds for a time across the South tomorrow before easing later. Thereafter through the week there will be further spells of wind and gales as yet another Low pressure area moves across the UK later in the week with Wednesday looking the only likely window of drier weather between weather systems but even then some showers are expected. the through next weekend at the time that follows further spells of rain and showers look likely but there may be a slow transgression towards less in the way of mobility to the atmosphere with the Jet Stream possibly buckling and breaking to allow pressure to build towards the SW or West which could eventually bring us more settled weather though the precursor to that could be a spell of cold North winds and wintry showers if ECM is to be believed. All in all though the pattern remains volatile and fast moving day to day changes in weather type will remain the focus for some considerable while yet before we might be looking at something at least a little less stormy and potentially disruptive with time. Any notable change towards cold and settled weather still looks a long way off though given the upper air pattern and Jet flow patterns predicted currently.      

Next Update Monday February 8th 2016 from 09:00

Definately worth watching

I'm afraid to say ECM has not been poor at a 10 day range this Winter. Only once has ECM been succeeded by GFS at day 10 and that is when it failed to get a handle on the progressive Atlantic in the recent apology of a cold snap. As it is today is another one of those very rare occasions that GFS has caught up ECM today but only at day 10.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Not sure how useful these stats are for our tiny bit of the NH but I take your point. It's been the best of a bad bunch this winter let's hope it's onto something this time but I doubt it.

The Beeb had this running through the Channel

Interesting runs this morning. Signs of a pressure rise around Scandi and maybe the jet undercutting. Whether this is down to the SSW, I don't know

Perhaps winter will have one last go

Perhaps Beast.  I wrote this a week ago in the M O thread:

 - on the back-loaded winter (I prefer "late" winter) front, IF anything significantly cold is to transpire (upper of -9 or less for a few days) then I would see it arriving somewhere around 13-16 February, so on that basis GEFS and other ens will be of passing interest right through this week to see if anything is picked up.  For the record, I'm not convinced this will happen, I'm just thinking that a fusion of Greenie and Azores high could topple but then stabilize for a day or 2 leaving a potential Pc feed for up to 3 days, and if heights fall sufficiently over Europe, then possibly longer.  

It remains a possibility, but what I had not factored in was quite how un-cold it has been over Scandi and the Arctic, which means even if the likes of the 6z GEFS control comes off, with what in any other winter would be a bonanza synoptic set-up, may well not be cold enough for snow at low levels.  That was the problem for many in the 2005 late winter episode.

Yes, the lack of cold air is a problem, but good to see these synoptics anyway

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020706/gens-0-1-192.png

I always look out for the "flattening" of the ensembles, showing a more horizontal trend, even if not especially cold:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

More members trending colder after the initial drop in temps this week.

General rule of thumb when looking individual ensemble runs (the 'rule' in this case comes from bitter experience) is to pick out the least interesting one as 9.9 times out of 10 this will be the one that will verify. 

Again this isnt even being considered by the Beeb

A cold looking day

I just made an exception and watched the BBC week ahead forecast to see how they viewed the wintry potential. Non-existent away from the north with temperatures in the south between 8C to 10C ish for most of the time. Different to the GFS view.

Interesting

A snow event for the south in some pretty cold air.

This run is for the bin, according to the Beeb

A cold Valentines Day

GFS certainly shows how things could pan our in our favour ( MBY Comment ) but as Brian has said Beeb not interested

If you are in cold enough air then you only need a wedge to the North to deflect the next system to a favourable angle, very hard for the models to get this right until its T96. Wouldn't worry about what the Beeb say, the NWP will lead.