Uncertainty starts very early currently .

Will be interesting to see this unfold .

ECM and GFS @ 240

yes I would expect temps to be about 4-6C warmer than that...they always are. 

10 c in that set up

Not a chance

One thing I've noticed about quite a few GFS op runs in the past few days is that they seems to be attempting to builf HP further north in the atlantic compared to where it has usually been throughout the winter thus far. The is actually fairly consistent with what the MetO back in late January were suggesting would happen in the second half of Feb, before they seem to renage somewhat on this idea.

Where we are today

10c would be highly unlikely IMO

Hmmmmm... A cold spell creeping up on us out of nowhere perhaps?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The Met/o 12z has a cold wintry look about it.

Yes, the 144 chart will be raw if it verifies, a "Peak District snow scenario".

Another run and the (relatively) colder theme continues...:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

Could be an interesting week, weatherwise.  Also an interesting spell of model watching.

Snow row reaches 12:

i quite agree. And something stirs on the MetO own model- I wonder if the countryfile week ahead will reflect this?

A little bit of wintryness in the South naff all like GFS though

ECM12z 120 broadly fits in with the Beeb view. 

ECM 120 has slightly colder air into Scandi...hmmm...

144 chart is a tease.  Model watching became interesting again.  Something other than mild zonality is good to see, slider lows are welcome.

Given how the models are changing run by run I really wouldn't put my eggs in the BBC forecast basket, this is evolving and like how we saw with the 'cold settled spell' the Beeb/METO are behind the game.

it is the first day of a Buchan Cold Spell today ...

ECM12z pays its respect to Buchan and quickly moves on.

Indeed Brian, nothing longer lasting is likely to come out of this whilst the jet remains so strong, nonetheless I think most people would be happy with a snow event of some sort ala Feb 2007 if that's what we squeeze out of this.

Would say that the GEFS 12h run looks less promising than the 06h.Our old friend the Azores HP having been pushed a south  seems to be pushing back north around the 240 time level as we also see from 12qh ECM.

Let's not forget that this time last week they were talking about a possible snow event yesterday which we could all see was a non starter.

If the NWP shunts everything further North tomorrow it won't be because the Beeb had access to something we couldn't see on Saturday night. 

Roger, I think the overwhelming favourite is the Atlantic fully back in by day 9/10  the interest is before then.

Hi everyone, here is a UKMO 144hr with my front overlay and approx 850hpa -5C isotherm.

A pretty complicated picture with some snowfall potentially in the north and south east.

 Indeed. As you pointed out it became evident the potential for snow was very limited. Even the extra data available to the Met Office (their own ENS and decider) wasn't going to make a significant difference to the forecast odds.